Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Kansas City, MO

July 6, 20154 counties in Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 6, 2015, 2:55 PM CDT for 4 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 50 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 6, 2015, 2:55 PM CDT (19:55 UTC)
Expired: Jul 6, 2015, 3:45 PM CDT
In force: 50 min
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Andrew County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Clinton County, MO, DeKalb County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 6, 3:08 PM CDT	TSTM WND GST 60	1 Wnw Clarksdale, MO	SMALL LIMB BLOWN DOWN

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 13 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 109 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 625 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -194 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1151 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 6 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 94 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 131 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

509 
WUUS53 KEAX 061955
SVREAX
MOC003-021-049-063-062045-
/O.NEW.KEAX.SV.W.0182.150706T1955Z-150706T2045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
255 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN ANDREW COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...
  SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...
  NORTHWESTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...
  BUCHANAN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 254 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COUNTRY CLUB
  VILLA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ST. JOSEPH...SAVANNAH...GOWER...COUNTRY CLUB VILLA...COUNTRY
  CLUB...STEWARTSVILLE...AGENCY AND CLARKSDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3975 9495 3972 9491 3972 9489 3975 9486
      3977 9486 3977 9488 3976 9491 3977 9493
      3979 9492 3980 9488 3982 9488 3983 9489
      3997 9479 3997 9444 3955 9450 3957 9498
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 278DEG 16KT 3983 9475 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BLAIR

2 follow-up statements

753 
WWUS53 KEAX 062027
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
327 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MOC003-021-049-063-062045-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0182.000000T0000Z-150706T2045Z/
ANDREW-DEKALB-CLINTON-BUCHANAN-
327 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ANDREW...SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB...NORTHWESTERN CLINTON
AND BUCHANAN COUNTIES...

AT 326 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF AGENCY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. JOSEPH...GOWER...COUNTRY CLUB VILLA...COUNTRY CLUB...
STEWARTSVILLE...AGENCY AND CLARKSDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3975 9495 3972 9491 3972 9489 3975 9486
      3977 9486 3977 9488 3976 9491 3979 9492
      3980 9488 3981 9488 3991 9463 3997 9444
      3955 9450 3957 9498
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 275DEG 20KT 3974 9466 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$
BLAIR

335 
WWUS53 KEAX 062044
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MOC003-021-049-063-062053-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0182.000000T0000Z-150706T2045Z/
ANDREW-DEKALB-CLINTON-BUCHANAN-
344 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ANDREW...
SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB...NORTHWESTERN CLINTON AND BUCHANAN COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 345 PM CDT...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED. 
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

WINDS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AREA. 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3975 9495 3972 9491 3972 9489 3975 9486
      3977 9486 3977 9488 3976 9491 3979 9492
      3980 9488 3981 9488 3991 9463 3997 9444
      3955 9450 3957 9498
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 278DEG 16KT 3974 9466 

$$

BLAIR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 6, 1:34 PM CDT, 1 hour 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 6, 1:34 PM CDT, 1 hour 21 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
134 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)

An episode of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected this
afternoon and evening across eastern Kansas and much of western
Missouri. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and torrential rainfall
are all possible with these storms. Rainfall rates combined with
moist soil conditions will lead to a flash flood risk in any areas
that experiences heavy rain.

A Flash Flood Watch has been posted for areas along and south of a
line from St. Joseph to Kirksville.

Short term models suggest that the severe risk could move into
southwest and central Missouri by 11pm tonight, with residual showers
lingering over northern Missouri into Tuesday morning.

For the rest of Tuesday, it's difficult to determine where the effective
surface front will be located due to convective outflow, cloud cover,
and rain contamination. Therefore will will continue the higher POPS
over west central and central Missouri through Tuesday afternoon, with
much lower POPS over northern Missouri. This forecast is based on a
frontal position across the Ozarks.

Highs on Tuesday may only reach the middle 70s as a cooler northern
Plains airmass spreads into the region.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)

Regarding Tuesday night, it appears as though the bulk of the heavy
rain and flooding will occur over Oklahoma as a shortwave trough
moves in from the southwest. This rainfall will eventually spread
into central and southern Missouri Wednesday morning.

Therefore Tuesday night through Wednesday, we will focus the higher
rainfall probabilities across west central and central Missouri.

Models suggest the surface front will remain over southern Missouri
through Wednesday night, focusing the bulk of the precipitation south
of I-70. However, by Thursday and Thursday night, this front is
expected to track back to the north, bringing additional rainfall to
northern Missouri.

As we progress toward the weekend, the summertime high is expected to
build across the nation's mid section, bringing hot and dry weather
to northern and western Missouri. Look for temperatures to warm into
the 80s and possibly the lower 90s by Friday and Saturday afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)

Little change to ongoing forecast. VFR conditions continue early this
afternoon with gusty southerly winds. Cold front projected to arrive
at terminals between 21-00z. Increasing chances for thunderstorms
expected with cold front approach and behind frontal boundary.
Widespread rain should gradually clear terminals overnight tonight
with only a few scattered showers expected Tuesday AM. MVFR
precipitation and post-frontal conditions.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     evening FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     evening FOR MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.

&&

SHORT TERM...CRAMER
LONG TERM...CRAMER
AVIATION...Blair

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 6, 12:45 PM CDT, 2 hours 10 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1245 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-071745-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1245 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWESTERN
 MISSOURI INTO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
 FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL THEN SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
 NORTHERN MISSOURI AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS FROM THIS EVENING INTO
 THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

 SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
 EVENING WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH BEING THE MAIN
 POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD. SOME STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
 HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES.

 IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...TORRENTIAL
 RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
 FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING RISK FROM LATE THIS
 AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
 SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ATCHISON KANSAS TO SAINT JOSEPH TO KIRKSVILLE
 MISSOURI.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
 CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD
 WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A LINE
 FROM ATCHISON KANSAS TO SAINT JOSEPH TO KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SCHAUMANN

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 6, 2:26 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
226 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MOZ005-014-062000-
HARRISON-DAVIESS-
226 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DAVIESS AND
SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 225 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
NEW HAMPTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BETHANY AND NEW HAMPTON.

LAT...LON 4026 9390 4007 9394 4010 9422 4028 9421
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 278DEG 18KT 4020 9417

BLAIR

Special weather statement, Jul 6, 2:44 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
244 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MOZ012-020-062015-
BUCHANAN-ANDREW-
244 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ANDREW AND
NORTHEASTERN BUCHANAN COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 243 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
COUNTRY CLUB VILLA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. JOSEPH...SAVANNAH...COUNTRY CLUB VILLA AND COUNTRY CLUB.

LAT...LON 3998 9461 3980 9460 3975 9460 3978 9487
      3983 9488 3984 9490 3997 9485
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 278DEG 17KT 3985 9481

BLAIR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 6, 3:44 AM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	EAX	Adair, Bates, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll, Cass and 21 more	60 hr
Jul 6, 9:40 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Cass, Henry, Johnson	71 hr
Jul 6, 9:40 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Bates, Cass, Henry	3 days
Jul 6, 10:21 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Clay, Jackson, Lafayette, Platte, Ray	70 hr
Jul 6, 10:21 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Carroll, Lafayette, Saline	4 days
Jul 6, 10:21 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Carroll, Chariton, Saline	5 days
Jul 6, 1:53 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Gentry, Worth	3 hr
Jul 6, 2:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Harrison	34 min
Jul 6, 2:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Andrew	31 min
Jul 6, 3:19 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Andrew, Buchanan	2 hr
Jul 6, 3:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Buchanan, Platte	38 min
Jul 6, 4:02 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Platte	13 min
Jul 6, 4:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clay, Platte	57 min
Jul 6, 4:29 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Buchanan, Clay, Clinton, Platte	4 hr
Jul 6, 4:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clay, Jackson, Platte	39 min
Jul 6, 4:55 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Clay	20 min
Jul 6, 4:58 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Clay, Jackson, Platte	4 hr
Jul 6, 5:09 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	EAX	Clay, Jackson	21 min
Jul 6, 5:27 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Clay, Jackson, Ray	18 min
Jul 6, 5:36 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Jackson	24 min
Jul 6, 5:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Jackson, Lafayette, Ray	30 min
Jul 6, 5:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass, Jackson	46 min
Jul 6, 6:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Carroll, Lafayette, Ray	45 min
Jul 6, 6:51 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Caldwell, Cass, Jackson, Lafayette, Ray	4 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.