Alert archive / Missouri / Tornado Warnings in 2015

Tornado Warning 28, NWS Kansas City, MO

July 6, 2015Clay County, Jackson County, Ray County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this tornado warning at Jul 6, 2015, 5:27 PM CDT for Clay County, Jackson County, Ray County, Missouri. It was in force for 18 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 6, 2015, 5:27 PM CDT (22:27 UTC)
Expired
Jul 6, 2015, 5:45 PM CDT
In force
18 min
Issued by
NWS Kansas City, MO
Area
Storm-based polygon
Tornado
Radar indicated
Hail
0.75 in

Counties Clay County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Ray County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 42 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this tornado warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Jul 6, 3:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 132 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2015-07-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 625 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2015-07-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 94 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
625 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-194 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1151 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
6 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
94 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
131 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

336 
WFUS53 KEAX 062227
TOREAX
MOC047-095-177-062245-
/O.NEW.KEAX.TO.W.0028.150706T2227Z-150706T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
527 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN RAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT
    
* AT 527 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MISSOURI CITY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...TORNADO. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE 
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY. 

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BUCKNER AND SIBLEY AROUND 535 PM CDT.
  ORRICK AND LEVASY AROUND 540 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9437 3930 9433 3932 9394 3920 9401
      3919 9404 3917 9402 3915 9403 3914 9406
      3914 9410 3908 9411 3907 9412
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 280DEG 25KT 3921 9424 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

BLAIR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this tornado warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this tornado warning went out at Jul 6, 1:34 PM CDT, 3 hours 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 6, 1:34 PM CDT, 3 hours 53 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
134 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)

An episode of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected this
afternoon and evening across eastern Kansas and much of western
Missouri. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and torrential rainfall
are all possible with these storms. Rainfall rates combined with
moist soil conditions will lead to a flash flood risk in any areas
that experiences heavy rain.

A Flash Flood Watch has been posted for areas along and south of a
line from St. Joseph to Kirksville.

Short term models suggest that the severe risk could move into
southwest and central Missouri by 11pm tonight, with residual showers
lingering over northern Missouri into Tuesday morning.

For the rest of Tuesday, it's difficult to determine where the effective
surface front will be located due to convective outflow, cloud cover,
and rain contamination. Therefore will will continue the higher POPS
over west central and central Missouri through Tuesday afternoon, with
much lower POPS over northern Missouri. This forecast is based on a
frontal position across the Ozarks.

Highs on Tuesday may only reach the middle 70s as a cooler northern
Plains airmass spreads into the region.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)

Regarding Tuesday night, it appears as though the bulk of the heavy
rain and flooding will occur over Oklahoma as a shortwave trough
moves in from the southwest. This rainfall will eventually spread
into central and southern Missouri Wednesday morning.

Therefore Tuesday night through Wednesday, we will focus the higher
rainfall probabilities across west central and central Missouri.

Models suggest the surface front will remain over southern Missouri
through Wednesday night, focusing the bulk of the precipitation south
of I-70. However, by Thursday and Thursday night, this front is
expected to track back to the north, bringing additional rainfall to
northern Missouri.

As we progress toward the weekend, the summertime high is expected to
build across the nation's mid section, bringing hot and dry weather
to northern and western Missouri. Look for temperatures to warm into
the 80s and possibly the lower 90s by Friday and Saturday afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)

Little change to ongoing forecast. VFR conditions continue early this
afternoon with gusty southerly winds. Cold front projected to arrive
at terminals between 21-00z. Increasing chances for thunderstorms
expected with cold front approach and behind frontal boundary.
Widespread rain should gradually clear terminals overnight tonight
with only a few scattered showers expected Tuesday AM. MVFR
precipitation and post-frontal conditions.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     evening FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     evening FOR MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.

&&

SHORT TERM...CRAMER
LONG TERM...CRAMER
AVIATION...Blair
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 6, 5:21 PM CDT, 6 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
521 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-072230-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
521 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
 MISSOURI AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE
 STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH BEING
 THE MAIN POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD. A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES
 MAY ALSO OCCUR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF ANY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

 IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...TORRENTIAL
 RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
 FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS GENERALLY
 ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ATCHISON KANSAS TO SAINT JOSEPH TO
 KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
 CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD
 WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A LINE
 FROM ATCHISON KANSAS TO SAINT JOSEPH TO KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SCHAUMANN

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 6, 5:11 PM CDT, 16 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
511 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNE OAKVIEW           39.26N 94.55W
07/06/2015  E60 MPH          CLAY               MO   PUBLIC

            3 MILES NORTH OF GLADSTONE

&&

SMB
Local storm report, Jul 6, 5:13 PM CDT, 14 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
513 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     TORNADO          1 SW LIBERTY            39.24N 94.43W
07/06/2015                   CLAY               MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

SMB
Local storm report, Jul 6, 5:17 PM CDT, 10 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
517 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW GLENAIRE          39.24N 94.46W
07/06/2015                   CLAY               MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            DEBRIS REPORTED AT INTERSECTION

&&

SMB
Local storm report, Jul 6, 5:23 PM CDT, 4 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
523 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSW FAIRMOUNT         39.17N 94.94W
07/06/2015                   LEAVENWORTH        KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS 2 FEET OF WATER COVERING
            BRANDT ROAD EAST OF 155TH ST.

&&

SMB
Local storm report, Jul 6, 5:25 PM CDT, 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
525 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     TORNADO          3 N COURTNEY            39.20N 94.39W
07/06/2015                   CLAY               MO   PUBLIC

&&

SMB
Local storm report, Jul 6, 5:27 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
527 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TORNADO          1 N CLEARVIEW CITY      38.96N 95.00W
07/06/2015                   JOHNSON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SPOTTER OBSERVED WEST OF DE SOTO ON K10.

&&

SMB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 6, 3:44 AM CDTFlash Flood WatchEAXAdair, Bates, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll, Cass and 21 more60 hr
Jul 6, 9:40 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEAXCass, Henry, Johnson71 hr
Jul 6, 9:40 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEAXBates, Cass, Henry3 days
Jul 6, 10:21 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEAXClay, Jackson, Lafayette, Platte, Ray70 hr
Jul 6, 10:21 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEAXCarroll, Lafayette, Saline4 days
Jul 6, 10:21 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEAXCarroll, Chariton, Saline5 days
Jul 6, 1:53 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEAXGentry, Worth3 hr
Jul 6, 2:26 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXHarrison34 min
Jul 6, 2:44 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXAndrew31 min
Jul 6, 2:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXAndrew, Buchanan, Clinton, DeKalb50 min
Jul 6, 3:19 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEAXAndrew, Buchanan2 hr
Jul 6, 3:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXBuchanan, Platte38 min
Jul 6, 4:02 PM CDTTornado WarningEAXPlatte13 min
Jul 6, 4:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXClay, Platte57 min
Jul 6, 4:29 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningEAXBuchanan, Clay, Clinton, Platte4 hr
Jul 6, 4:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXClay, Jackson, Platte39 min
Jul 6, 4:55 PM CDTTornado WarningEAXClay20 min
Jul 6, 4:58 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningEAXClay, Jackson, Platte4 hr
Jul 6, 5:09 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedEAXClay, Jackson21 min
Jul 6, 5:36 PM CDTTornado WarningEAXJackson24 min
Jul 6, 5:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXJackson, Lafayette, Ray30 min
Jul 6, 5:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCass, Jackson46 min
Jul 6, 6:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCarroll, Lafayette, Ray45 min
Jul 6, 6:51 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEAXCaldwell, Cass, Jackson, Lafayette, Ray4 hr

Nearby

Tornado Warnings in Missouri, 2015Every tornado warning in 2015Tornadoes in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.