Alert archive / Missouri / Flash Flood Warnings in 2015

Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Kansas City, MO

June 11, 2015Andrew County, Holt County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this flash flood warning at Jun 11, 2015, 10:28 PM CDT for Andrew County, Holt County, Missouri. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 11, 2015, 10:28 PM CDT (03:28 UTC)
Expired: Jun 12, 2015, 1:30 AM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Andrew County, MO, Holt County, MO

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 144 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 00:00Z, 3.5 hours before the alert went out and 118 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 938 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -66 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1811 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 219 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 314 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 10.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

230 
WGUS53 KEAX 120328
FFWEAX
MOC003-087-120630-
/O.NEW.KEAX.FF.W.0029.150612T0328Z-150612T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1028 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN ANDREW COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
  SOUTHERN HOLT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 130 AM CDT

* AT 1027 PM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS ONGOING FLOODING ACROSS   
  PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA...INCLUDING SOME ROAD CLOSURES. 

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
  OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...MOUND
  CITY...FILLMORE...FOREST CITY AND OREGON.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 64 AND 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4014 9506 4013 9504 4012 9488 3990 9499
      3990 9501 3987 9503 3986 9509 3988 9514
      3991 9515 3990 9520 3994 9521 3995 9525
      4003 9535 4002 9539 4005 9543 4007 9540
      4012 9540 4014 9543

$$

PMM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jun 11, 6:26 PM CDT, 4 hours 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 11, 6:26 PM CDT, 4 hours 2 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
626 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

An active afternoon and evening is starting to shape up for strong
to severe thunderstorms that should affect most of the area. At this
time we have a tornado watch out until 02z where supercells are
expected to develop ahead of a surface low and along a warm front
across our far northwestern counties. Shear and instability
parameters favor very large hail and a possible tornado or two. The
surface low should track across southern IA this evening with an
attended cold front moving into the CWA from the northwest.
Additional storms are anticipated to develop along the cold front and
those too are expected to be strong to severe. Would not be surprised
to see a severe watch issued to handle those storms. Latest NPW,
especially the HRRR, bring the line of storms into the KC Metro area
between 6 to 9 pm. Large hail, strong wind gusts, and locally heavy
rain will be the concerns with the line. Also, we have many of our
northern counties under a flash flood watch through 12z tomorrow
given the saturated soils and the expected convection. Lastly a
portion of a MCS may work in from the southwest very late tonight
along and north of the cold front. At this time, if the MCS develops,
our southeast counties would get brushed by it.

The rest of the forecast period will remain unsettled and on the wet
side of things as multiple disturbances track across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

VFR conditions at the terminals will give way to MVFR and possibly
IFR conditions this evening as a modest front and associated
thunderstorms moves through. Latest TEMPO groups in the TAFs
highlight the best timing for the storms, though vicinity activity
might bubble up ahead of and behind the timed front. Gusty surface
winds will veer to the southwest and finally the northwest behind the
front late tonight as they bring in MVFR clouds. Confidence in the
height of the cloud deck and how long it will hang around though is
low. Otherwise, threat of storms Friday afternoon is sufficiently
scattered enough that we have left any mention out of the terminals
for now.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KSZ102.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR MOZ001>008-011>017.

&&

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Cutter

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 11, 5:35 AM CDT, 16 hours 53 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
535 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-121045-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
535 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...CAUSING LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS...GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

 MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL VERY POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 11, 9:18 PM CDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
918 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0857 PM     TSTM WND GST     GOWER                   39.61N 94.59W
06/11/2015  M60.00 MPH       CLINTON            MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

LAFLIN

Local storm report, Jun 11, 9:36 PM CDT, 52 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
936 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E RAVENWOOD           40.35N 94.65W
06/11/2015                   NODAWAY            MO   911 CALL CENTER

            HWY O EAST OF RAVENWOOD.

&&

PMURRAY

Local storm report, Jun 11, 9:41 PM CDT, 47 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
941 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W STANBERRY           40.22N 94.56W
06/11/2015                   GENTRY             MO   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING ALONG HWY O.

&&

PMURRAY

Local storm report, Jun 11, 9:45 PM CDT, 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
945 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W GENTRY              40.33N 94.49W
06/11/2015                   GENTRY             MO   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING ALONG HWY O. CORRECTED FOR LOCATION.

&&

PMURRAY

Local storm report, Jun 11, 9:53 PM CDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
953 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE DENVER             40.38N 94.29W
06/11/2015                   GENTRY             MO   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES TOPPED ALONG HWY C.

&&

PMURRAY

Local storm report, Jun 11, 9:59 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
959 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 PM     TSTM WND GST     PLATTSBURG              39.56N 94.46W
06/11/2015  E60 MPH          CLINTON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED FROM FOX 4 WDAF.

&&

LAFLIN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 11, 7:11 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Andrew, Buchanan, Caldwell, Clinton, Daviess, DeKalb and 2 more	6 hr
Jun 11, 7:14 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Adair, Grundy, Harrison, Mercer, Putnam, Schuyler and 1 more	6 hr
Jun 11, 7:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Buchanan, DeKalb	43 min
Jun 11, 7:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Buchanan	36 min
Jun 11, 7:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Putnam, Sullivan	43 min
Jun 11, 7:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Daviess, DeKalb, Grundy, Livingston	48 min
Jun 11, 7:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Adair, Putnam, Schuyler, Sullivan	51 min
Jun 11, 8:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Grundy, Linn, Livingston, Sullivan	38 min
Jun 11, 8:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Buchanan	41 min
Jun 11, 8:40 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Buchanan, Platte	4 hr
Jun 11, 8:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Adair, Macon, Schuyler	50 min
Jun 11, 8:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Buchanan, Clinton, DeKalb, Platte	41 min
Jun 11, 9:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Daviess, Grundy, Livingston	38 min
Jun 11, 9:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Clinton, Daviess, DeKalb	29 min
Jun 11, 9:34 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Daviess, Gentry	55 hr
Jun 11, 9:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Carroll, Livingston	38 min
Jun 11, 9:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Linn, Livingston, Sullivan	14 min
Jun 11, 10:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Carroll, Chariton, Linn, Livingston, Macon	40 min
Jun 11, 10:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Chariton, Macon, Randolph	30 min
Jun 11, 10:51 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	EAX	Atchison, Holt, Nodaway	7 hr
Jun 11, 11:29 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	EAX	Adair, Caldwell, Chariton, Daviess, Grundy, Linn and 3 more	6 hr
Jun 12, 12:42 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	EAX	Andrew, Atchison, Holt, Nodaway	10 hr
Jun 12, 1:09 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Sullivan	36 min
Jun 12, 8:36 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Daviess, Livingston	56 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2015 Every flash flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.