Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
403 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

ANOTHER STORMY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT LACK OF A STRONG CAP MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KTS AND MUCAPE OVER
2000 J/KG WILL PRODUCE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...THOUGH FOG DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS TODAY. SHOWER/STORMS
POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...BUT ELSEWHERE CLEARING SKIES
WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AND TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

APOLOGIES FOR THE ABBREVIATED DISCUSSION DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI WILL ALLOW A FEW
SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS TO LINGER ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW EARLY MONDAY PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER S/W OVER WRN ONTARIO...FAR NERN MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THIS WAVE BRUSHES THE ARROWHEAD MON AFTERNOON THE COOL AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...850MB TEMPS AROUND 7-8 DEG C...WILL
COMBINE WITH WARM SFC TEMPERATURES TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND
TRIGGER A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND WEAK T-STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE EVENING AS THE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD TO WARM SIDE WITH A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
BACK INTO THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND 20-22Z AND PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. MAY LINGER LONGER ACROSS NW WI. WILL LIKELY SEE
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING. CEILINGS WILL DROP BELOW 1000 FT AND
VSBYS WILL FALL TO AROUND 1/2SM OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  79  58  75 /  50  20  20  10
INL  56  75  52  75 /  10   0   0  20
BRD  61  80  57  79 /  50  20  20  10
HYR  61  81  56  75 /  30  30  30  10
ASX  62  79  56  74 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
417 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-091030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
417 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
MAY ALSO SEE A SEVERE STORM OR TWO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND
HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVATION POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LSZ121-140>148-091030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
417 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
FAR WESTERN AREAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

MELDE

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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