Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

UPDATED TO EXPAND FOG ADVISORY TO ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY OF PINE
AND BURNETT COUNTY...WHERE VISIBILITIES ARE CURRENTLY A HALF
MILE...AND SHOULD ONLY GET WORSE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPIRATION
TIME REMAINS THE SAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

COMPLICATED WEATHER SCENE OUT THERE THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG
SURFACE LOW OVER MANITOBA...AND A WEAK FRONT DRAPED SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. LAST EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG
THIS FRONT...AND HAVE PUSHED EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THEY HAVE BEEN MAINTAINING STRENGTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA...BUT ONCE THEY GET INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING RAPIDLY DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY FARTHER EAST. ALSO OF CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE FOG.
LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL CREATED EXCELLENT PRECONDITIONS FOR FOG...AND
WITH OUR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE-UPPER 50S HERE
WE ARE WITH FOG OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS WORST AROUND
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM ASHLAND...THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AND UP THE
NORTH SHORE WHERE A QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY IS PRETTY COMMON. ANY
STORMS THAT GET FAR ENOUGH EAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FOG IS LIKELY
TO BRING THE VISIBILITY UP TEMPORARILY...BUT IT SHOULD GO RIGHT
BACK DOWN. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES
IN THE MORNING SO HAVE PUT OUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE WORST
AFFECTED AREAS UNTIL 10 AM.

TODAY THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE IN THE
NEXT 3-6 HOURS...ESPECIALLY AS IT IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING WITH WEAKER STORMS AND MORE STRATIFORM APPEARANCE ON
RADAR.  IN COMBINATION WITH THE WEAKENING TREND AS STORMS MOVE
EAST...EXPECT US TO BE DOWN TO JUST SHOWERS BY SUNRISE OR SHORTLY
AFTER.  HOWEVER...THIS IS UNLIKELY TO LAST AS INSTABILITY WILL BUILD
ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN THAT AND THE RESPECTABLE SHEAR
THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WE SHOULD HAVE SOME STRONG
TO EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT
SAGS SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SAG SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE ON INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN FOR SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...ON SUNDAY THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IS MUCH WEAKER...THE SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER AS IS THE
INSTABILITY...SO DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH INTENSITY OR COVERAGE FROM
THE STORMS AND HAVE GONE WITH LOWER POPS.  OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN SEASONABLE...WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE AS USUAL.
EXPECT FOG AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL
AND LIGHT WINDS...AND HAVE PUT IN AREAS OF FOG FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT NOT BEFORE DROPPING SOME RAIN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DEPART BY
06Z AND HAVE REMOVED THE POPS THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING IN. ON MONDAY...EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND HAVE
POPS TO REFLECT THIS. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
LEAVING THE SFC HIGH IN CHARGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EDGES BACK
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WHILE THE SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARBY. THE
RIDGING PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT FINDS A MID
LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. THE GFS IS SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AND PUSHES A LARGE COLD FRONT INTO NE
MN. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK SFC TROF ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER WITH SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THE GEM FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE
TROF AND NO RAIN. USED A BLEND OF THE GEM/ECMWF FOR POPS. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME QUITE LARGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE HANDLING
OF AN UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. KEPT WITH THE
BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

LONE THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BRD AT 12Z WITH MVFR AND MODERATE RAIN.
DENSE FOG AT DLH TIL 15Z WITH VCSH. MVFR AT HYR AT THE
OUTSET...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR TO
START THE FORECAST. EXPECT THE STORM TO MOVE PAST BRD BY 13Z WITH
AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER IN
THE VCNTY OF ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT INL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. HAVE A MENTION OF BR AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  60  78  58 /  40  50  10  10
INL  78  54  74  55 /  40  10   0  10
BRD  79  60  80  58 /  50  40  20  10
HYR  76  60  78  57 /  20  30  20  20
ASX  74  60  78  58 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>003-
     006.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021-
     037-038.

LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
521 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-091030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
521 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT THE STRONGER STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY. THE FOG WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO A HALF MILE OR LESS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 10 AM
THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

LSZ121-140>148-091030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
521 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OR HIGHER AND LARGE
HAIL.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

LE

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1029 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

MNZ018-026-081545-
NORTH ITASCA-SOUTH ITASCA-
1029 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL ITASCA COUNTY...

AT 1029 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR TACONITE...OR 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HILL ANNEX MINE STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...DIME SIZE HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KEEWATIN AND NASHWAUK AROUND 1045 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE LAWRENCE LAKE AND BUCK
LAKE.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR ONE OF THE MANY AREA LAKES...GET OFF OF THE
WATER IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER ON SHORE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4734 9347 4749 9349 4757 9307 4735 9307
TIME...MOT...LOC 1529Z 262DEG 23KT 4741 9337

MOORE