Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
403 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

ANOTHER STORMY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT LACK OF A STRONG CAP MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KTS AND MUCAPE OVER
2000 J/KG WILL PRODUCE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...THOUGH FOG DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS TODAY. SHOWER/STORMS
POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...BUT ELSEWHERE CLEARING SKIES
WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AND TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

APOLOGIES FOR THE ABBREVIATED DISCUSSION DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI WILL ALLOW A FEW
SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS TO LINGER ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW EARLY MONDAY PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER S/W OVER WRN ONTARIO...FAR NERN MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THIS WAVE BRUSHES THE ARROWHEAD MON AFTERNOON THE COOL AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...850MB TEMPS AROUND 7-8 DEG C...WILL
COMBINE WITH WARM SFC TEMPERATURES TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND
TRIGGER A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND WEAK T-STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE EVENING AS THE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD TO WARM SIDE WITH A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
BACK INTO THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND 20-22Z AND PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. MAY LINGER LONGER ACROSS NW WI. WILL LIKELY SEE
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING. CEILINGS WILL DROP BELOW 1000 FT AND
VSBYS WILL FALL TO AROUND 1/2SM OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  79  58  75 /  50  20  20  10
INL  56  75  52  75 /  10   0   0  20
BRD  61  80  57  79 /  50  20  20  10
HYR  61  81  56  75 /  30  30  30  10
ASX  62  79  56  74 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1029 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

MNZ018-026-081545-
NORTH ITASCA-SOUTH ITASCA-
1029 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL ITASCA COUNTY...

AT 1029 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR TACONITE...OR 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HILL ANNEX MINE STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...DIME SIZE HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KEEWATIN AND NASHWAUK AROUND 1045 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE LAWRENCE LAKE AND BUCK
LAKE.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR ONE OF THE MANY AREA LAKES...GET OFF OF THE
WATER IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER ON SHORE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4734 9347 4749 9349 4757 9307 4735 9307
TIME...MOT...LOC 1529Z 262DEG 23KT 4741 9337

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
155 PM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 ENE HACKENSACK        46.96N 94.41W
08/08/2015  M2.07 INCH       CASS               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL FOR TODAY. 0.23 INCHES FELL THIS MORNING.

&&

KLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
205 PM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     HAIL             2 WSW LONGVILLE         46.98N 94.25W
08/08/2015  E0.25 INCH       CASS               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KLH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
227 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

MNZ025-035-082000-
NORTH CASS-NORTHERN AITKIN-
227 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL CASS AND
NORTHWESTERN AITKIN COUNTIES...

AT 226 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 8 MILES NORTH OF OUTING...
OR 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SCHOOLCRAFT STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...DIME SIZE HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SWATARA AROUND 255 PM CDT.
  HILL CITY AROUND 300 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE THUNDER LAKE...
WASHBURN LAKE...LAURA LAKE...HAYPOINT...WHITE ELK LAKE...BAIN AND
LAKE ROOSEVELT.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR ONE OF THE MANY AREA LAKES...GET OFF OF THE
WATER IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER ON SHORE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4684 9410 4703 9409 4702 9356 4679 9357
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 273DEG 26KT 4694 9399

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
308 PM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             4 N DEER RIVER          47.39N 93.79W
08/08/2015  E0.25 INCH       ITASCA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

JJM