Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Dodge City, KS

590 
WWUS53 KDDC 200116
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
816 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

KSC075-093-200124-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0217.000000T0000Z-150720T0130Z/
HAMILTON KS-KEARNY KS-
816 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN HAMILTON AND
NORTHWESTERN KEARNY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE MOST SEVERE PORTION OF THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING WILL 
REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARNED AREA...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE 
THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY FOR NORTHERN HAMILTON AND NORTHWESTERN 
KEARNY COUNTIES. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER 
GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3826 10204 3826 10134 3822 10121 3790 10179
      3817 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 304DEG 26KT 3818 10162 

$$

UMSCHEID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
651 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS, WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, PARTICULARLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM HAYS TO SCOTT CITY. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THAT SEPARATED SOUTH WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SLIGHT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP NEAR NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AND PROPAGATE TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST PER HRRR. OTHER MUCH LARGER
BATCHES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE MAJOR
TERRAIN FEATURES OF EASTERN COLORADO INCLUDING THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND RATON MESA, AND THEN PROGRESS INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT VERY HIGH DEWPOINTS FROM 68-74F
WERE IN PLACE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR(AFTER CORRECTING
FOR THE CONTINUING SUSPICIOUS DATA FROM KHYS), THESE STORMS WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THEREFORE, A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR ELLIS AND TREGO COUNTIES WHERE 3 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

ON SUNDAY, THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA STATE LINE. HIGHS SHOULD BE ONLY IN THE 80S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. IN ADDITION,
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RICH ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE EVENING, OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PER CLIMATOLOGY. THE
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING MUCH ABOVE THE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS WEEK
AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 90S AGAIN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THEN COME CLOSE TO 100F
BY THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS WELL, WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OFF HOURS AS THE
TAF SITES REMAIN EAST OF A STALLED OUT FRONT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THIS FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER 02-03Z
BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  91  68  84 /  40  20  50  50
GCK  67  89  67  84 /  50  20  40  50
EHA  67  89  66  85 /  40  30  40  50
LBL  68  91  68  84 /  30  30  50  50
HYS  68  91  66  84 /  70  50  20  40
P28  73  94  71  87 /  40  30  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ030-031.

&&

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
417 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-200930-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
417 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR STORMS MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IS UNCERTAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, POTENTIALLY CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  MONDAY...
  LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  TUESDAY...
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  WEDNESDAY...
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  THURSDAY...
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  FRIDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  SATURDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A HAYS TO MEADE LINE.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

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