Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
330 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

ANTICIPATED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER
MORNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WE ARE IN A LULL RIGHT NOW AND
GETTING READY FOR ROUND TWO.

CURRENTLY...MCS COMPLEX HAS CLEARED THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS PUSHING OFF INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LATEST RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...MOVING
SOUTHEAST. LATEST MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING SOUTHEAST WYOMING IN
AN AREA OF UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN
2500 AND 3500 J/KG. AREAS THAT SAW CONVECTION THIS MORNING ARE
SEEING SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION RANGING FROM -50 TO -75 J/KG
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS SHOULD BE THE CATALYST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF STORMS BEING FORECAST FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...CAPE SHOULD REMAIN HIGH...IN THE
2500-3000 J/KG RANGE. LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH MID
EVENING.

ONE AREA OF CONCERN HYDRO WISE. MORNING CONVECTION OVER DAWES AND
NORTHERN SIOUX COUNTIES HAVE PRIMED THIS AREA FOR POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING. WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF UP TO AS MUCH AS 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN DAWES COUNTY JUST SOUTH OF
CHADRON. REPORTS OVER NORTHERN SIOUX AROUND AN INCH AND FURTHER
WEST IN CONVERSE COUNTY...WE RECEIVED REPORTS CLOSE TO AN INCH
FROM MORNING CONVECTION. WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING AS
ANY MORE STORMS UP THERE COULD PRODUCE FLOODING CONDITIONS
QUICKLY.

SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z THIS
EVENING AND CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THIS OCCURS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CONTINUED THE POTENTIAL FOR
AM FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
LINGER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
HIGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS
NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE STRONG MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH WILL GREATLY INHIBIT CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND...OTHERWISE KEPT POP BELOW 10 PERCENT OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
LOW...DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH PRETTY
HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE TOO
GREAT TO OVERCOME FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THIS MAY CHANGE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH DRIFTS TO THE
WEST AND WEAKENS...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A MORE
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASED POP
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR TSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S TO NEAR 90. MODELS THEN INDICATE A COOL FRONT QUICKLY MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD AFFECT AREAS FROM
CHEYENNE EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LESS COVERAGE FROM
CHEYENNE WEST AND CARRIED A VCTS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN
CHEYENNE...WITH PREVAILING PERIODS OF THUNDER FOR CHADRON THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE TAF SITE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH MID TO LATE EVENING...THEN WITH LIGHT WINDS WE MAY
SEE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TOWARD EARLY MORNING FOR THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE
STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
A DRIER DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS THE FRONT THATS CURRENTLY OVER THE
AREA MOVES EAST. NICE AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LOWER
30S EAST. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS AREA FUELS ARE RATED
NONRECEPTIVE TO LARGE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ102.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NEZ002-095.

&&

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GCC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
336 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>103-106>108-116>119-
262145-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-
EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
336 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS
AND DOWNBURST WINDS TO 60 MPH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR OUT INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS.
IN ADDITION...SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED MAINLY LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEED THROUGH THE MID EVENING
HOURS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY NEED FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FROM
6 PM THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.

WYZ105-110-114-115-262145-
SHIRLEY BASIN-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SNOWY RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-
336 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THAT
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS
TO 60 MPH. THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY IN EASTERN ALBANY
COUNTY ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE INCLUDING THE
CITY OF LARAMIE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED MAINLY LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FRIDAY
AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR COMMUNITIES NEAR THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FROM 6 PM THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.

WYZ104-109-111>113-262145-
FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-
336 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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