Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
423 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015

LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING STORMS FORMING IN AN AREA OF 500 J/KG
CAPE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A STATIONARY COLD FRONT ALONG THE
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE INTO SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY...PRETTY CLOSE TO
WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING
TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES. ONE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER MOVING INTO WESTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON THAT IS KICKING OFF CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN COLORADO. PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO REMAIN CAPPED AT THIS
TIME WITH AN INVERSION AROUND 750MBS.

DO THINK WE STAND A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IF THOSE STORMS CAN MAKE IT OVER THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND HOLD TOGETHER. SO FAR...THEY HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING TO DO THIS. THEY WOULD BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AS CHEYENNE IS REPORTING A TD OF 47. BETTER CONDITIONS
FURTHER EAST AS TORRINGTON IS REPORTING A TD OF 59 AT 2PM. BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWING AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
CURRENT THINKING ARE STORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWFA WILL MOVE OFF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO THE CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. STORMS THAT MOVE INTO OUR
NORTHERN ZONES STAND THE BETTER CHANCE OF GOING SEVERE.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY AND THIS IS AN AREA
OF CONCERN. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THIS FRONT DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. LATEST PWATS ALONG THE FRONT OVER NIOBRARA AND
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE COUNTIES FORECAST AT 1.5 INCHES. MODEL QPF
OUTPUT QUITE HIGH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY. ECMWF AND SREF QPF SHOWING WELL OVER AN INCH OF QPF OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY. COULD SEE TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ALONG THIS FRONT DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
HIGH REMAINS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...THIS HIGH WILL THEN
GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION BY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN SOME TSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL GREATLY INHIBIT CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND...OTHERWISE KEPT POP BELOW 10 PERCENT
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...BUT THE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS MAY CHANGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH DRIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE TO ENTER THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90. INCREASED POP
BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 420 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST WY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE NE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
LOCALIZED MVFR VISIBILITY AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
TSTORMS. CONVECTION MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NE.
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING EAST OF A LINE FROM DOUGLAS WY TO KIMBALL NE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SERVE TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAINS TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ102.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NEZ002-095.

&&

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MAJ/TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GCC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
353 AM MDT WED JUN 24 2015

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>103-106>108-116>119-
251030-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-
EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
353 AM MDT WED JUN 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH HAIL
THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

WYZ104-105-109>115-251030-
FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-SHIRLEY BASIN-
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
353 AM MDT WED JUN 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1006 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015

WYZ106>108-250430-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY WY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY WY-GOSHEN COUNTY WY-
1006 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL GOSHEN AND EAST
CENTRAL PLATTE COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM MDT...

AT 1006 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES EAST OF CHUGCREEK...OR 10 MILES EAST OF WHEATLAND...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WHEATLAND...FORT LARAMIE...CHUGCREEK...VETERAN...GRAYROCKS
RESERVOIR...FORT LARAMIE NATIONAL HISTORIC SITE...Y-O RANCH AND
SLATER.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 25 IN WYOMING NEAR MILE MARKER 79.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4188 10488 4205 10497 4233 10442 4194 10430
TIME...MOT...LOC 0406Z 244DEG 40KT 4202 10476

HAMMER