Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
355 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

QUITE A LIGHTNING SHOW ACCORDING TO OUR INFRARED SATELLITE LOOPS
OVERLAID WITH THE LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN CONVERSE AND
NORTHERN NIOBRARA COUNTIES. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS STILL
ONGOING AT 330 AM MDT OVER AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES...THOUGH
FORTUNATELY...THEY ARE OVER SPARSELY POPULATED TERRITORY.

BASED ON NARROWING TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS...WILL SEE
PATCHY FOG THROUGH DAWN OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 25.

MAIN CHALLENGE AGAIN TODAY WILL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND THEIR STRENGTH. THANK YOU TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR
THEIR CHAT COORDINATIONS SUGGESTING AN UPGRADE TO ENHANCED RISK FROM
THE CURRENT SLIGHT RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF A DOUGLAS
TO LARAMIE LINE.

WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR COUNTIES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDDAY...WE EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
ERUPT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BUOYANT AIRMASS ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 25 ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOW AND MID LEVEL THETA-
E RIDGE AXIS...AND AS MENTIONED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...A
SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...MCS...MAY DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR PLAINS COUNTIES IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH PROGGED CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS LOOK LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITH BRISK MID
LEVEL WINDS AND DECENT WIND SHEAR. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

TONIGHT...WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND DECREASING LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...WILL
SEE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION WILL ADVECT IN A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN THE AFTERNOON...THUS ONLY SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE NEAR THE
COLORADO STATE LINE...DRY ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT START
TO THE WEEKEND WITH OUR COUNTIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GREAT
BASIN RIDGE ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOO
SCANT FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

LARGE UPPER HIGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A NNW UPPER FLOW OVER THE CWA PROVIDING WARM AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A BIT OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE FAR SRN MTNS. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER
THE PACIFIC NW LATE MONDAY AND TRAVERSE THE TOP OF THE UPPER HIGH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE TURNING SE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD BRING SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE CWA
LATE TUESDAY. SIMILAR PATTERN EXPECTED FOR WEDS WITH ANOTHER
RIPPLE IN THE FLOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH
A MODEST COOL FRONT. TEMPS QUITE WARM MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
LOWERING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER THE
PANHANDLE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS AFFECTING THE KCDR
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SCTD TSTRMS DEVELOPING AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER AND NEAR THE SE WY MTNS AND MOVING OVER THE PLAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR VSBYS FOR SHORT
PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS BASED ON PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND
WINDS REMAINING INSIDE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WYZ102.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-095.

&&

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
638 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>103-106>108-116>119-
261030-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-
EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
638 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
PROGRESS GENERALLY EAST OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME
STORMS MAY BE COME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREATS ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED MAINLY LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FRIDAY
AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WYZ105-110-114-115-261030-
SHIRLEY BASIN-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SNOWY RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-
638 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED MAINLY LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FRIDAY
AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

WYZ104-109-111>113-261030-
FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-
638 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
335 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

WYZ101-102-251015-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS WY-NIOBRARA COUNTY WY-
335 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN NIOBRARA AND EASTERN
CONVERSE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM MDT...

AT 335 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES SOUTH OF DULL CENTER...OR 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF LUSK...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LANCE CREEK AROUND 415 AM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4329 10508 4340 10487 4326 10447 4301 10482
TIME...MOT...LOC 0935Z 309DEG 16KT 4326 10489

RUBIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
919 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 AM     HAIL             17 NE DOUGLAS           42.93N 105.16W
06/25/2015  E1.00 INCH       CONVERSE           WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RCOX