Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
539 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA AND NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THESE TWO WEATHER FEATURES WILL SUPPLY THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE AND
LIFT TO FORM NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND SCATTERED STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
PERSISTENT UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LVL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SFC WARM FRONT AT 1830Z HAS LIFTED A BIT NORTH AND BECOME MORE
DIFFUSE NEAR A KELZ...TO KIPT...AND KRDG LINE.

A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO...WITHIN A BELT OF ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 0-1KM SHEAR
ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS. SFC BASED CAPE REMAINS BETWEEN
2000-2500 J/KG INVOF KTHV AND KLNS.

TRIPLE POINT INTERSECTION OF LEE TROUGH HANGING SOUTH FROM THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY WRN POCONOS WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH A FEW NEWD MVG
SUPERCELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE EHI/S WILL BE
AOA 2M2/S2. SPC ELEVATED THEIR TORNADO PROB FROM 2 PERCENT TO 5
PERCENT IN THAT AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A DISTINCT FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING TSRA FOLLOWED LATER THIS EVENING BY A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND...POTENTIAL LINEAR MCS/BOW ECHO
SWEEPING EAST FROM OHIO AND ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN. THIS CONVECTIVE
FEATURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING CFRONT...AND
NESTLED BENEATH THE ENHANCED LIFT/EXIT REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER
JET LIFTING ENE FROM WVA. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE ABOVE NOTED
MCS...CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN THIS PORTION OF
PENN.

SEVERE TSRA WATCHES 371 AND 372 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AND 9 PM EDT
RESPECTIVELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JUST
ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE STATE.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING...DUE TO WET GROUND AND EXPECTATION OF ISOLD RAINFALL
AMTS OF ARND 3 INCHES BASED ON OUTPUT FROM CONVECTION-ALLOWING
MDLS. WILL MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW...BUT A FFA COULD BE CONSIDERED
FOR THE SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE PLUME OF HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL LIE.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR THE REGION ALONG AND TO THE SE OF
INTERSTATE 80 UNTIL 3 AM WEDNESDAY.

WEAKER MID LVL WINDS IMPLY LESS CHC OF SVR WX ACROSS THE NW MTNS
OF PENN.

MAX TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE L-M70S OVR THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L80S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF DEEPENING UPPER TROF WILL
SWING THRU CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE AN
UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FOR CONVECTION...STRONG LG SCALE FORCING
COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TSRA AS
THIS FEATURE COMES THRU LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. HAVE REDUCED
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER ABOUT 15Z...AS LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ARRIVES IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE. SPC
MRGL RISK OF SVR WX ENCOMPASSES EASTERN PA...WHERE THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT ISOLD SVR WX
ARND MIDDAY. PTSUNNY SKIES AND ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN 12-14C
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WED FROM THE L70S NW TO M80S LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY. AS THE JET STREAK MOVES OVER
THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO SET UP
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF PA...THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND TSRA SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH BUT ANY WAVERING COULD
ALLOW FOR STORMS TO CREEP INTO PA.

THE FLOW SHOULD SHFIT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER FLOW FRIDAY. THE DRY MID LEVELS WITH A BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD
KEEP THE WEEKEND PRIMARILY DRY THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL COME WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR
EARLY JULY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ADJUSTMENTS MADE THE LAST FEW HOURS FOR STORMS. STRONGEST
STORMS OVER SE PA...BUT MORE ALONG THE OH...PA BORDER.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION /SHOWERS AND ISOLATED-SCTD
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSRA/ WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MOST AIRFIELDS OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION WILL SEE VFR TO UPPER END
MVFR WITH A 5-10 KT SW SFC WIND. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTH TO
SSWRLY SFC FLOW OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL PRESIDE
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY /JUST SOUTH OF A SFC WARM FRONT...AND
EAST OF A DEVELOING LEE SFC TROUGH/.

FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE INTO MAINLY THE MVFR RANGE FOR
TONIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE HIGH WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...AND MORE
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA IMPACTING THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BE AFFECTING
THE REGION MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED...MVFR CIGS LIKELY WEST. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.

FRI...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA SOUTH.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ036-056>059-
063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
217 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-011830-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
217 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ036-056>059-063>066-011830-
FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-
LANCASTER-
217 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
415 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HENSEL                  39.83N  76.20W
06/30/2015                   LANCASTER          PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON CONOWINGO RD

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE DRUMORE CENTER    39.86N  76.20W
06/30/2015                   LANCASTER          PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON SCOTLAND RD

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BENFER                  40.78N  77.21W
06/30/2015                   SNYDER             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ALONG BACK MOUNTAIN ROAD

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N MIDDLEBURG          40.80N  77.05W
06/30/2015                   SNYDER             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON DADDARIO HILL ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1500224 CTP1500225 CTP1500226 CTP1500227

MACH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
419 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PAZ059-065-066-302115-
YORK PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-
419 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT YORK...LANCASTER...AND LEBANON
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 419 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BAINBRIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MAYTOWN AND MARIETTA AROUND 425 PM EDT.
  RHEEMS...MOUNT JOY AND ELIZABETHTOWN AROUND 430 PM EDT.
  LAWN AROUND 435 PM EDT.
  SALUNGA-LANDISVILLE AROUND 440 PM EDT.
  MANHEIM...MOUNT GRETNA HEIGHTS AND TIMBER HILLS AROUND 445 PM EDT.
  QUENTIN...CORNWALL AND LITITZ AROUND 450 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE AVON HEIGHTS...MOUNT
GRETNA...PENRYN...YORK HAVEN AND ELIZABETHTOWN COLLEGE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
 THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE FROM MILE MARKERS 259 TO 275.
 INTERSTATE 83 FROM MILE MARKERS 23 TO 29.

LAT...LON 4008 7680 4012 7673 4012 7672 4015 7669
      4015 7668 4019 7660 4020 7657 4023 7658
      4036 7638 4017 7620 4001 7668 4000 7676
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 238DEG 29KT 4009 7667

LAMBERT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
603 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PAZ019-026-302230-
SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-HUNTINGDON PA-
603 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...THIS IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHERN CENTRE...AND
NORTHERN HUNTINGDON COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 600 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN STRETCHED FROM
ZION THROUGH STATE COLLEGE TO SPRUCE CREEK. THE SHOWERS WERE MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH...AND WILL TRAVEL OVER THE SAME AREAS
REPEATEDLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MINOR FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. DO NOT DRIVE INTO WATER COVERING THE
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4057 7813 4057 7814 4066 7815 4099 7774
      4091 7754 4077 7766 4054 7813
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 220DEG 14KT 4080 7788

DANGELO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
610 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PAZ066-302245-
LANCASTER PA-
610 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LANCASTER COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM
EDT...

AT 609 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
DENVER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

30 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ADAMSTOWN AND TERRE HILL AROUND 615 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE BOWMANSVILLE...
FARMERSVILLE...FIVEPOINTVILLE...REINHOLDS AND SCHOENECK.

THIS INCLUDES THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE FROM MILE MARKERS 277 TO 295.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4010 7619 4027 7627 4031 7615 4016 7591
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 249DEG 28KT 4022 7614

MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
713 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PAZ019-045-049-010015-
SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-UNION PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
713 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CENTRE...WESTERN
UNION...AND SOUTHERN CLINTON COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 712 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF MILLHEIM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  REBERSBURG AROUND 725 PM EDT.
  WOODWARD AROUND 730 PM EDT.
  LAURELTON CENTER AROUND 745 PM EDT.
  R.B. WINTER STATE PARK AROUND 755 PM EDT.
  CARROLL AROUND 800 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE LOGANTON AND MCCALL
DAM STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MINOR FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. DO NOT DRIVE INTO WATER COVERING THE
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4107 7716 4107 7714 4106 7713 4094 7705
      4075 7774 4086 7783 4114 7724
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 243DEG 21KT 4088 7750

DANGELO