Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
120 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA AND NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE TWO
WEATHER FEATURES WILL SUPPLY THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
FORM NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND SCATTERED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A PERSISTENT UPPER LVL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LVL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC WARM FRONT AT 1645Z EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBFD TO KUNV AND KMUI
AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD THIS AFTERNOON. LLVL
SOUTHERLY 0-1KM SHEAR IS GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
PENN...AS IS THE SFC BASED CAPE...WHICH HAS RAMPED UP QUICKLY TO
AROUND 2500 J/KG INVOF KTHV AND KLNS WITHIN SOME POCKETS OF PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

TRIPLE POINT INTERSECTION OF LEE TROUGH HANGING SOUTH FROM THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY WITH LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND EVEN A FEW NEWD MVG SUPERCELLS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE EHI/S WILL BE AOA 2M2/S2. SPC
RECENTLY BUMPED UP THEIR TORNADO PROB FROM 2 PERCENT TO 5 PERCENT
IN THAT AREA

SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES CLOSES TO THE
APPROACHING CFRONT...AND BENEATH THE ENHANCED LIFT/EXIT REGION OF
AN 80 KT UPPER JET LIFTING NE FROM WVA. SPC RECENTLY ISSUED SEVERE
TSRA WATCH 371 UNTIL 8 PM EDT ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO AND WRN
PENN...RIGHT UP AGAINST OUR WRN CWA.

BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS /ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND WEST
BRANCH VALLEYS/...CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
/JUST FOR THE SHORT TIME BEING/ BEFORE THE EXIT REGION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR LVL JET SLIDES EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. SEVERE
TSRA WATCH 372 COMING OUT SHORTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PENN EFFECTIVE UNTIL 9 PM EDT /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
JUST WARREN CTY IN OUR NW CWA/.

WEAKER MID LVL WINDS IMPLY LESS CHC OF SVR WX ACROSS THE NW MTNS
OF PENN.

OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING...DUE TO WET GROUND AND EXPECTATION OF ISOLD RAINFALL
AMTS OF ARND 3 INCHES BASED ON OUTPUT FROM CONVECTION-ALLOWING
MDLS. WILL MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW...BUT A FFA COULD BE CONSIDERED
FOR THE SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE PLUME OF HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL LIE.

PTSUNNY SKIES SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE M70S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES
THIS AFTN...AND THE L80S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF DEEPENING UPPER TROF WILL
SWING THRU CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE AN
UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FOR CONVECTION...STRONG LG SCALE FORCING
COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TSRA AS
THIS FEATURE COMES THRU LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. HAVE REDUCED
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER ABOUT 15Z...AS LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ARRIVES IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE. SPC
MRGL RISK OF SVR WX ENCOMPASSES EASTERN PA...WHERE THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT ISOLD SVR WX
ARND MIDDAY. PTSUNNY SKIES AND ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN 12-14C
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WED FROM THE L70S NW TO M80S LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MEAN UPPER LVL TROUGH JUST
WEST OF PA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTING NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE PM HOURS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL COME WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES THU/SAT/MON. HOWEVER...CAN/T
RULE OUT A SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES FRI/SUN...IN VICINITY
OF STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS
FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION /SHOWERS AND ISOLATED-SCTD
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSRA/ WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MOST AIRFIELDS OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION WILL SEE VFR TO UPPER END
MVFR WITH A 5-10 KT SW SFC WIND. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTH TO
SSWRLY SFC FLOW OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL PRESIDE
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY /JUST SOUTH OF A SFC WARM FRONT...AND
EAST OF A DEVELOING LEE SFC TROUGH/.

FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE INTO MAINLY THE MVFR RANGE FOR
TONIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE HIGH WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...AND MORE
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA IMPACTING THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BE AFFECTING
THE REGION MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED...MVFR CIGS LIKELY WEST. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.

FRI...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA SOUTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
928 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PAZ042-053-301400-
SULLIVAN PA-COLUMBIA PA-
928 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN SULLIVAN...AND
NORTHERN COLUMBIA COUNTY UNTIL 1000 AM EDT...

AT 927 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
JAMISON CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

BRIEF...40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RICKETTS GLEN STATE PARK AROUND 930 AM EDT.

LAT...LON 4151 7623 4132 7631 4126 7631 4123 7637
      4124 7645 4128 7645 4128 7647 4133 7650
      4155 7627 4154 7622
TIME...MOT...LOC 1327Z 226DEG 36KT 4132 7637

LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1200 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PAZ058-059-066-301700-
SCHUYLKILL PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-
1200 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SCHUYLKILL
COUNTY... NORTHERN LANCASTER COUNTY...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF LEBANON COUNTY UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

AT 1158 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR RICHLAND TO MANHEIM...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  RICHLAND...MYERSTOWN AND AVON AROUND 1205 PM EDT.
  KLEINFELTERSVILLE AND SCHAEFFERSTOWN AROUND 1225 PM EDT.
  NEWMANSTOWN AND FRIEDENSBURG AROUND 1235 PM EDT.
  RENNINGERS AND SCHUYLKILL HAVEN AROUND 1250 PM EDT.
  ORWIGSBURG AROUND 1255 PM EDT.
  MCKEANSBURG AND NEW PHILADELPHIA AROUND 100 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE AUBURN...AVON
HEIGHTS...BROCKTON...CRESSONA AND DEER LAKE.

THIS INCLUDES THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE FROM MILE MARKERS 261 TO 281.

LAT...LON 4064 7600 4057 7602 4058 7604 4053 7617
      4051 7631 4042 7632 4029 7612 4017 7620
      4004 7650 4018 7656 4023 7653 4045 7637
      4043 7632 4052 7631 4076 7609 4069 7585
TIME...MOT...LOC 1558Z 213DEG 22KT 4035 7629 4016 7639

LAMBERT