Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
302 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA AND NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THESE TWO WEATHER FEATURES WILL SUPPLY THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE AND
LIFT TO FORM NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND SCATTERED STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
PERSISTENT UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LVL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC WARM FRONT AT 1830Z HAS LIFTED A BIT NORTH AND BECOME MORE
DIFFUSE NEAR A KELZ...TO KIPT...AND KRDG LINE.

A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO...WITHIN A BELT OF ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 0-1KM SHEAR
ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS. SFC BASED CAPE REMAINS BETWEEN
2000-2500 J/KG INVOF KTHV AND KLNS.

TRIPLE POINT INTERSECTION OF LEE TROUGH HANGING SOUTH FROM THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY WRN POCONOS WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH A FEW NEWD MVG
SUPERCELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE EHI/S WILL BE
AOA 2M2/S2. SPC ELEVATED THEIR TORNADO PROB FROM 2 PERCENT TO 5
PERCENT IN THAT AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A DISTINCT FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING TSRA FOLLOWED LATER THIS EVENING BY A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND...POTENTIAL LINEAR MCS/BOW ECHO
SWEEPING EAST FROM OHIO AND ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN. THIS CONVECTIVE
FEATURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING CFRONT...AND
NESTLED BENEATH THE ENHANCED LIFT/EXIT REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER
JET LIFTING ENE FROM WVA. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE ABOVE NOTED
MCS...CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN THIS PORTION OF
PENN.

SEVERE TSRA WATCHES 371 AND 372 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AND 9 PM EDT
RESPECTIVELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JUST
ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE STATE.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING...DUE TO WET GROUND AND EXPECTATION OF ISOLD RAINFALL
AMTS OF ARND 3 INCHES BASED ON OUTPUT FROM CONVECTION-ALLOWING
MDLS. WILL MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW...BUT A FFA COULD BE CONSIDERED
FOR THE SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE PLUME OF HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL LIE.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR THE REGION ALONG AND TO THE SE OF
INTERSTATE 80 UNTIL 3 AM WEDNESDAY.

WEAKER MID LVL WINDS IMPLY LESS CHC OF SVR WX ACROSS THE NW MTNS
OF PENN.

MAX TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE L-M70S OVR THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L80S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF DEEPENING UPPER TROF WILL
SWING THRU CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE AN
UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FOR CONVECTION...STRONG LG SCALE FORCING
COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TSRA AS
THIS FEATURE COMES THRU LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. HAVE REDUCED
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER ABOUT 15Z...AS LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ARRIVES IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE. SPC
MRGL RISK OF SVR WX ENCOMPASSES EASTERN PA...WHERE THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT ISOLD SVR WX
ARND MIDDAY. PTSUNNY SKIES AND ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN 12-14C
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WED FROM THE L70S NW TO M80S LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MEAN UPPER LVL TROUGH JUST
WEST OF PA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTING NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE PM HOURS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL COME WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES THU/SAT/MON. HOWEVER...CAN/T
RULE OUT A SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES FRI/SUN...IN VICINITY
OF STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS
FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION /SHOWERS AND ISOLATED-SCTD
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSRA/ WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MOST AIRFIELDS OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION WILL SEE VFR TO UPPER END
MVFR WITH A 5-10 KT SW SFC WIND. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTH TO
SSWRLY SFC FLOW OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL PRESIDE
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY /JUST SOUTH OF A SFC WARM FRONT...AND
EAST OF A DEVELOING LEE SFC TROUGH/.

FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE INTO MAINLY THE MVFR RANGE FOR
TONIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE HIGH WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...AND MORE
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA IMPACTING THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BE AFFECTING
THE REGION MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED...MVFR CIGS LIKELY WEST. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.

FRI...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA SOUTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ036-056>059-
063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
217 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-011830-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
217 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ036-056>059-063>066-011830-
FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-
LANCASTER-
217 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
928 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PAZ042-053-301400-
SULLIVAN PA-COLUMBIA PA-
928 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN SULLIVAN...AND
NORTHERN COLUMBIA COUNTY UNTIL 1000 AM EDT...

AT 927 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
JAMISON CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

BRIEF...40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RICKETTS GLEN STATE PARK AROUND 930 AM EDT.

LAT...LON 4151 7623 4132 7631 4126 7631 4123 7637
      4124 7645 4128 7645 4128 7647 4133 7650
      4155 7627 4154 7622
TIME...MOT...LOC 1327Z 226DEG 36KT 4132 7637

LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1200 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PAZ058-059-066-301700-
SCHUYLKILL PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-
1200 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SCHUYLKILL
COUNTY... NORTHERN LANCASTER COUNTY...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF LEBANON COUNTY UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

AT 1158 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR RICHLAND TO MANHEIM...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  RICHLAND...MYERSTOWN AND AVON AROUND 1205 PM EDT.
  KLEINFELTERSVILLE AND SCHAEFFERSTOWN AROUND 1225 PM EDT.
  NEWMANSTOWN AND FRIEDENSBURG AROUND 1235 PM EDT.
  RENNINGERS AND SCHUYLKILL HAVEN AROUND 1250 PM EDT.
  ORWIGSBURG AROUND 1255 PM EDT.
  MCKEANSBURG AND NEW PHILADELPHIA AROUND 100 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE AUBURN...AVON
HEIGHTS...BROCKTON...CRESSONA AND DEER LAKE.

THIS INCLUDES THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE FROM MILE MARKERS 261 TO 281.

LAT...LON 4064 7600 4057 7602 4058 7604 4053 7617
      4051 7631 4042 7632 4029 7612 4017 7620
      4004 7650 4018 7656 4023 7653 4045 7637
      4043 7632 4052 7631 4076 7609 4069 7585
TIME...MOT...LOC 1558Z 213DEG 22KT 4035 7629 4016 7639

LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
246 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PAZ027-028-050-301930-
MIFFLIN PA-JUNIATA PA-SNYDER PA-
246 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MIFFLIN...JUNIATA...AND SNYDER
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 246 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
REEDSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

40 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ALFARATA AND REEDS GAP STATE PARK AROUND 300 PM EDT.
  BELLTOWN AROUND 310 PM EDT.
  MCCLURE AROUND 325 PM EDT.
  MCALISTERVILLE AND SNYDER-MIDDLESWART STATE PARK AROUND 330 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE MAITLAND...MIFFLIN...
MIFFLINTOWN...SIGLERVILLE AND WAGNER.

LAT...LON 4060 7765 4067 7767 4075 7762 4082 7725
      4053 7725
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 260DEG 18KT 4067 7755

RXR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
256 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PAZ064-065-301945-
YORK PA-ADAMS PA-
256 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT YORK...AND ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL
345 PM EDT...

AT 255 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ASPERS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HAMPTON AND NEW OXFORD AROUND 315 PM EDT.
  LAKE MEADE AROUND 320 PM EDT.
  EAST BERLIN AROUND 325 PM EDT.
  YORK AIRPORT AND SPRING GROVE AROUND 340 PM EDT.
  DOVER...WEIGELSTOWN AND SHILOH AROUND 345 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE ABBOTTSTOWN...
BENDERSVILLE...BIGLERVILLE...HEIDLERSBURG AND HUNTERSTOWN.

LAT...LON 3981 7721 3987 7732 3999 7726 4012 7684
      3983 7676
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 253DEG 18KT 3991 7718

RXR