Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
305 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MORE RAIN IS
COMING...WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEST. HAVE ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREAS MOST PRONE TO FLOODING...WHICH
MATCHES UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES PRETTY MUCH. GREATEST CONCERN
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
(INCLUDING LAREDO) AND WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY....WITH LOWER CHANCES
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. WATCH AREA MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME
AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE DEPENDING ON HOW ACTIVITY TRANSPIRES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO INCLUDE COASTAL AREAS TOO.

SEVERE WEATHER STILL A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT...SEVERE CONCERN COULD GO INTO TUESDAY. THINK
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A MCS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING THEN MOVE EAST. SPC IS MONITORING.
GENERALLY HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MENTIONED. RAIN CHANCES
APPEAR TO DIMINISH A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY...BUT THIS COULD
CHANGE (AS AREA OF FFA BEING EXPANDED) AS TTU MODEL IS SHOWING
POSSIBLY ANOTHER MCS LATE (06Z RUN). OVERALL AND IN SHORT...
EXPECTING RAIN. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY GOING COOLER
TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO RAIN-COOLED AIR AND SLIGHTLY
COOLING TO THE NORTH WITH FRONT. THEN...RATHER COOL ON TUESDAY
WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN-COOLED AIR. MAYBE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TUESDAY NIGHT...IF AT ALL BUT GENERALLY PERSISTENCE (MAYBE A
DEGREE DIFFERENCE) BETWEEN TONIGHT FORECAST AND TUESDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...WEAK TO MDOERATE ONSHORE
FLOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH TUUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD HAVE A FEW STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
INTO THE EXTENDED AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DECAYS JUST NORTH
OF THE CWFA. ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS AND NUMEROUS WEAK IMPULSES
ROTATING THROUGH A MEAN TROF IN THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. MAIN THREAT APPEARS
TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND. NOT SUPER COMFORTABLE OUTLINING A SPECIFIC AREA FOR
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SEE HIGHER TOTALS.

BY THE WEEKEND SURFACE FOCUS HAS DISSIPATED...AND HEAVIER RAINFALL
SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF THE COASTAL BEND TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY
DRY US OUT FOR A BIT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START THE
EXTENDED...THEN SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  81  74  81  74  /  80  70  60  40  50
VICTORIA          71  80  70  81  72  /  90  70  60  50  50
LAREDO            71  82  71  84  71  /  90  80  70  60  60
ALICE             73  82  72  83  72  /  90  70  60  40  60
ROCKPORT          74  80  75  80  74  /  80  70  60  40  50
COTULLA           69  78  69  83  70  / 100  90  80  70  60
KINGSVILLE        74  83  73  83  73  /  80  70  60  40  50
NAVY CORPUS       75  80  75  80  75  /  80  70  60  40  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...DUVAL...GOLIAD...
     LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

GW/86...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
309 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-121100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
309 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE COUNTIES OF
BEE...DUVAL...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK... MCMULLEN...VICTORIA
AND WEBB.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY HAZARDS. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF-FACING BEACHES
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
COUNTIES OF BEE...DUVAL...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...
MCMULLEN...VICTORIA AND WEBB. THE WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED IN TIME OR
IN AREAL COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN STORM
THREATS. ADDITIONALLY...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD
TO FLOODING PROBLEMS ALONG AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS
LOW LYING URBAN AREAS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF-FACING BEACHES
ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

GW

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
441 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

TXZ239-240-112230-
DUVAL-WEBB-
441 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING SOUTHEASTERN WEBB AND
SOUTHWESTERN DUVAL COUNTIES...

AT 439 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BRUNI. THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRUNI.

LAT...LON 2755 9895 2759 9857 2734 9860 2734 9862
      2736 9863 2735 9880 2727 9880 2727 9890
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 180DEG 0KT 2740 9874

PZ

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