Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1108 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

TXZ229>234-239>247-121100-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTULLA...CALLIHAM...CROSS...
LOMA ALTA...TILDEN...GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...BEEVILLE...
GOLIAD...VICTORIA...LAREDO...FREER...BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO...
ALICE...ORANGE GROVE...KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...PORTLAND...
INGLESIDE...ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS...ROCKPORT...REFUGIO...
WOODSBORO...PORT LAVACA
1108 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

...CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...
...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH TEXAS THIS
WEEK...AS COPIOUS MOISTURE COMBINES WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ENERGY FROM A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE OVER AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF AN ALICE TO BEEVILLE
LINE. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SYSTEM OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY...THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE COAST
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ONCE AGAIN AND AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR FLOODING.

ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN INFLUENCING
FACTOR FOR SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM REMAINS
TO THE WEST AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE. ALTHOUGH THE
CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL
INCREASE...AS ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER
SATURATED SOILS AND THUS LIKELY RUN OFF.

AT THIS TIME...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OVER INLAND
AREAS...GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF A KINGSVILLE TO SINTON TO
BLOOMINGTON LINE...WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS (INCLUDING LAREDO) AND THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY.
LOWER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BEFORE THE IMPACTS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OR ALL OF
SOUTH TEXAS...OR AT LEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

SOUTH TEXAS RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS ON THIS UPCOMING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT. STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL
MEDIA OUTLETS CONCERNING ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS WHICH WILL BE
ISSUED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. YOU CAN ALSO KEEP TRACK OF THE
WEATHER ON OUR WEB PAGE AT (ALL LOWER CASE)...

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP

GW