Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
305 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MORE RAIN IS
COMING...WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEST. HAVE ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREAS MOST PRONE TO FLOODING...WHICH
MATCHES UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES PRETTY MUCH. GREATEST CONCERN
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
(INCLUDING LAREDO) AND WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY....WITH LOWER CHANCES
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. WATCH AREA MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME
AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE DEPENDING ON HOW ACTIVITY TRANSPIRES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO INCLUDE COASTAL AREAS TOO.

SEVERE WEATHER STILL A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT...SEVERE CONCERN COULD GO INTO TUESDAY. THINK
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A MCS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING THEN MOVE EAST. SPC IS MONITORING.
GENERALLY HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MENTIONED. RAIN CHANCES
APPEAR TO DIMINISH A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY...BUT THIS COULD
CHANGE (AS AREA OF FFA BEING EXPANDED) AS TTU MODEL IS SHOWING
POSSIBLY ANOTHER MCS LATE (06Z RUN). OVERALL AND IN SHORT...
EXPECTING RAIN. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY GOING COOLER
TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO RAIN-COOLED AIR AND SLIGHTLY
COOLING TO THE NORTH WITH FRONT. THEN...RATHER COOL ON TUESDAY
WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN-COOLED AIR. MAYBE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TUESDAY NIGHT...IF AT ALL BUT GENERALLY PERSISTENCE (MAYBE A
DEGREE DIFFERENCE) BETWEEN TONIGHT FORECAST AND TUESDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...WEAK TO MDOERATE ONSHORE
FLOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH TUUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD HAVE A FEW STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
INTO THE EXTENDED AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DECAYS JUST NORTH
OF THE CWFA. ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS AND NUMEROUS WEAK IMPULSES
ROTATING THROUGH A MEAN TROF IN THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. MAIN THREAT APPEARS
TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND. NOT SUPER COMFORTABLE OUTLINING A SPECIFIC AREA FOR
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SEE HIGHER TOTALS.

BY THE WEEKEND SURFACE FOCUS HAS DISSIPATED...AND HEAVIER RAINFALL
SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF THE COASTAL BEND TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY
DRY US OUT FOR A BIT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START THE
EXTENDED...THEN SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  81  74  81  74  /  80  70  60  40  50
VICTORIA          71  80  70  81  72  /  90  70  60  50  50
LAREDO            71  82  71  84  71  /  90  80  70  60  60
ALICE             73  82  72  83  72  /  90  70  60  40  60
ROCKPORT          74  80  75  80  74  /  80  70  60  40  50
COTULLA           69  78  69  83  70  / 100  90  80  70  60
KINGSVILLE        74  83  73  83  73  /  80  70  60  40  50
NAVY CORPUS       75  80  75  80  75  /  80  70  60  40  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...DUVAL...GOLIAD...
     LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

GW/86...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
309 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-121100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
309 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE COUNTIES OF
BEE...DUVAL...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK... MCMULLEN...VICTORIA
AND WEBB.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY HAZARDS. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF-FACING BEACHES
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
COUNTIES OF BEE...DUVAL...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...
MCMULLEN...VICTORIA AND WEBB. THE WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED IN TIME OR
IN AREAL COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN STORM
THREATS. ADDITIONALLY...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD
TO FLOODING PROBLEMS ALONG AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS
LOW LYING URBAN AREAS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF-FACING BEACHES
ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

GW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1108 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

TXZ229>234-239>247-121100-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTULLA...CALLIHAM...CROSS...
LOMA ALTA...TILDEN...GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...BEEVILLE...
GOLIAD...VICTORIA...LAREDO...FREER...BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO...
ALICE...ORANGE GROVE...KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...PORTLAND...
INGLESIDE...ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS...ROCKPORT...REFUGIO...
WOODSBORO...PORT LAVACA
1108 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

...CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...
...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH TEXAS THIS
WEEK...AS COPIOUS MOISTURE COMBINES WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ENERGY FROM A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE OVER AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF AN ALICE TO BEEVILLE
LINE. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SYSTEM OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY...THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE COAST
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ONCE AGAIN AND AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR FLOODING.

ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN INFLUENCING
FACTOR FOR SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM REMAINS
TO THE WEST AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE. ALTHOUGH THE
CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL
INCREASE...AS ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER
SATURATED SOILS AND THUS LIKELY RUN OFF.

AT THIS TIME...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OVER INLAND
AREAS...GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF A KINGSVILLE TO SINTON TO
BLOOMINGTON LINE...WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS (INCLUDING LAREDO) AND THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY.
LOWER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BEFORE THE IMPACTS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OR ALL OF
SOUTH TEXAS...OR AT LEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

SOUTH TEXAS RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS ON THIS UPCOMING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT. STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL
MEDIA OUTLETS CONCERNING ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS WHICH WILL BE
ISSUED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. YOU CAN ALSO KEEP TRACK OF THE
WEATHER ON OUR WEB PAGE AT (ALL LOWER CASE)...

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP

GW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
341 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

TXZ240-112115-
DUVAL-
341 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL DUVAL COUNTY...

AT 340 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER BENAVIDES. THE STORM
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

PEA SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BENAVIDES.

LAT...LON 2752 9840 2759 9852 2772 9843 2767 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 202DEG 3KT 2762 9841

CB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
441 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

TXZ239-240-112230-
DUVAL-WEBB-
441 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING SOUTHEASTERN WEBB AND
SOUTHWESTERN DUVAL COUNTIES...

AT 439 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BRUNI. THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRUNI.

LAT...LON 2755 9895 2759 9857 2734 9860 2734 9862
      2736 9863 2735 9880 2727 9880 2727 9890
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 180DEG 0KT 2740 9874

PZ