Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
341 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEVERE CONVECTION
ONGOING ACRS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTN ALONG THERMAL/MSTR
BNDRY. CONVECTION HAS SO FAR REMAINED CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
BNDRY ITSELF DESPITE 3000-4000 J/KG CAPES AND 40+ 0-6 KM SHEAR AS
THERE REMAINS A BIT OF A CAP AROUND 800 MB. EXPECT SVR CONVECTION
TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWFA THRU 00Z AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
PROPAGATES EAST AND ADDITIONAL CELLS DVLP AHEAD OF THE LINE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF RELATIVE STRONG ROTATION DVLP SO A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHER CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD DVLP ANY TIME
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SOME COULD BE SEVERE.
INITIAL STORM CLUSTER PRODUCED 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN VERY QUICKLY IN
THE NORTH AND WITH AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PSBL TNGT WILL
EXTEND THE FFA BACK WEST TO COTULLA AND CONTINUE IT THRU 12Z.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY SATURDAY WITH
PLENTIFUL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS FORECAST A SLIGHT
LULL IN THE ACTION ON SUNDAY AS UPPER FORCING EDGES EAST OF THE
COASTAL BEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW INTERACT WITH A
PERSISTENT SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LOTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL NOT
ATTEMPT TO TIME ANY OF THESE IMPULSES...INSTEAD INCLUDING SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  71  82  67  86  /  60  70  50  30  20
VICTORIA          81  68  80  65  85  /  80  80  50  30  10
LAREDO            85  69  88  66  90  /  50  50  30  20  10
ALICE             83  70  84  66  89  /  60  70  50  30  10
ROCKPORT          78  71  77  69  81  /  60  70  50  30  20
COTULLA           82  65  85  64  90  /  80  80  40  20  10
KINGSVILLE        83  71  84  67  88  /  50  70  50  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  72  77  68  80  /  60  70  50  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE
     OAK...MCMULLEN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

99...SHORT TERM
99...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1216 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-181730-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
1216 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WEBB...LA SALLE AND
MCMULLEN COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM CDT.

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH TEXAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAJOR
THREATS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AND A
MARGINAL RISK ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SPOTTER ACTIVATION
MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND SATURDAY.

TE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
437 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

TXZ234-172200-
VICTORIA-
437 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN VICTORIA COUNTY...

AT 435 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NURSERY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...SALEM...FORDTRAN AND NURSERY.

LAT...LON 2906 9694 2902 9683 2897 9681 2895 9681
      2878 9705 2891 9719 2905 9705 2910 9698
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 237DEG 35KT 2890 9705

TMT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
441 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

TXZ233-172215-
GOLIAD-
441 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN GOLIAD COUNTY...

AT 440 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS FROM YORKTOWN TO
NEAR CHARCO...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GOLIAD...WESER...CHARCO...WEESATCHE AND ANDER.

LAT...LON 2889 9735 2890 9734 2887 9732 2888 9731
      2884 9730 2885 9729 2864 9725 2865 9775
      2866 9776 2869 9774 2893 9742
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 271DEG 31KT 2876 9757

TMT