Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1232 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
WEBB...LA SALLE AND MCMULLEN COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM CDT. AN ENHANCED
RISK CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS AS PREVAILING CIGS LIFT...HOWEVER TSRA'S ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS S TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR STORMS AT TIMES. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE. PREVAILING CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING
TO MVFR LEVELS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SAT AS
WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH CONVECTION DVLPG AND INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE LIKELIEST CHCS ACROSS THE N CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE THAT IS PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND S TX TODAY. THE INSTABILITY AND UPPER DYNAMICS
COMBINED WITH ANY OUTFLOW BDRIES HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SVR
STORMS. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS S TX IN AN ENHANCED RISK
OF SVR STORMS TODAY. THE HIGHER PRECIP CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO THE E HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE NRN CWA AND DUE TO THE ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND...WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NE
CWA TODAY. OVERALL...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FROM VFR TO
IFR/LIFR WITH LOW CLOUDS AT ALI/CRP. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING. OTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
REMARKS AT THE TERMINALS WITH TEMPO TSRA AT VCT. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER
ABOUT CHANCES OF STORMS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER LOW TODAY MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET NEARBY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN SBCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NW
OF THE AREA AND PROPAGATE TO E AND ESE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE INTO A
MCS. PRIMARY HAZARDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST DEPENDING ON
ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT MAY TAKE PLACE. ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF DAYS OF HEAVIER RAIN
EARLY IN THE WEEK. A FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY EVOLVE OVER THESE
AREAS AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. INCLUDED BOTH SEVERE WORDING AND HEAVY
RAIN IN THE GRIDS FOR TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND BASE OF
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PRIMARY HAZARDS AGAIN WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALL
OF SOUTH TEXAS IS OUTLOOKED FOR AN ENHANCED THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL KEEP A 20 POP FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA AS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY A WEAK BOUNDARY ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. UPPER JET IS ALSO BEGINNING TO NOSE BACK
INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH NO DECREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
DAILY. UPPER LOW IS WELL TO THE NORTH AND A BIT OF A RIDGE DEVELOPS
AT 250MB LEVEL...THUS ENDING ANY JET DYNAMICS TO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WE COULD SEE A
BRIEF DRIER PERIOD AS SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPS.

SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH FEWER
CLOUDS AND LESS PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS LIKELY IN THE 90S
WEST. CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE ANOTHER WARM UP LATE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  71  82  67  86  /  60  70  50  30  20
VICTORIA          81  68  80  65  85  /  70  70  50  30  10
LAREDO            85  69  88  66  90  /  50  50  30  20  20
ALICE             83  70  84  66  89  /  60  70  50  30  20
ROCKPORT          78  71  77  69  81  /  60  70  50  30  20
COTULLA           82  65  85  64  90  /  60  40  40  20  10
KINGSVILLE        83  71  84  67  88  /  50  70  50  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  72  77  68  80  /  60  70  50  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

TE/81...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1216 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-181730-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
1216 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WEBB...LA SALLE AND
MCMULLEN COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM CDT.

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH TEXAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAJOR
THREATS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AND A
MARGINAL RISK ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SPOTTER ACTIVATION
MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND SATURDAY.

TE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     HAIL             COTULLA                 28.44N 99.24W
04/17/2015  E0.25 INCH       LA SALLE           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SMALL HAIL ON I-35 MILE MARKER 67...WEST SIDE OF COTULLA.

&&

LKEYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
228 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     TSTM WND GST     LOS ANGELES             28.45N 99.00W
04/17/2015  E70 MPH          LA SALLE           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED.

&&

LKEYS

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