River Flood Warning 57, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
400 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STILL RESIDES OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO THE COASTAL BEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 2.5 INCHES. COASTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS SHIFTED
INLAND WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
BEND. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SLOWLY MOVED INLAND AND MERGED WITH
ACTIVITY OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
ACTIVITY SHOWING SOME DIMINISHING TRENDS OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND AS THIS AREA SHOWED SLIGHTLY MORE OUTFLOW...WILL HOLD ON TO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 7 PM. FOR THE WESTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA...DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. WITH LOW
LEVEL FOCUS SHIFTING WEST WITH CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY TONIGHT
ALSO. SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN
CHANCE.

&&

.TIDES...TIDE LEVELS ARE RUNNING AT AROUND 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
FROM ROCKPORT TO PORT O'CONNOR WHILE LEVELS ARE AROUND A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL FROM PORT ARANSAS SOUTHWARD. BY THE WAY...INTERESTING
TIDE LEVEL TRACE AT ROCKPORT AS POSSIBLE METEOTSUNAMI OCCURRED
WHEN SQUALL MOVED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TIDES ARE MOVING TOWARD
A LOW TIDE TONIGHT AND EXPECT TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE
DIMINISHING TREND. CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.MARINE...KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR MODERATE TO
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WITH SEAS REMAINING AROUND 6 TO 8
FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MID LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED FROM THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY NORTHEAST TOWARD OKLAHOMA
IN CONJUNCTION WITH PWATS OF 2.0-2.2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...BEING FUELED BY
A 20-25 KT LLJ. DRYING AND RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD TAPER
CHANCES FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. BY
FRIDAY...WEAKNESS BETWEEN MIDLEVEL RIDGES...ONE TO THE WEST AND
THE OTHER TO THE EAST...WILL ALLOW FOR A MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THIS COMBINED WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE OF 1.8- 2.0 INCHES WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PEAKING EACH AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A MIDLEVEL LOW AND MOVES
WEST PULLING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AWAY FROM THE REGION
MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  88  79  91  78  /  50  30  20  20  20
VICTORIA          76  89  76  90  76  /  60  30  20  30  20
LAREDO            78  92  77  94  78  /  60  40  40  20  20
ALICE             77  90  76  93  77  /  50  40  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          81  87  80  89  80  /  60  30  20  20  20
COTULLA           75  90  75  92  75  /  60  50  40  20  20
KINGSVILLE        78  90  78  92  78  /  50  30  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  87  81  88  80  /  40  30  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...
     VICTORIA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
532 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

TXZ229>234-239>247-181100-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
532 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
COUNTIES ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO AND VICTORIA.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
COUNTIES OF SAN PATRICIO...NUECES AND KLEBERG.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...INCLUDING THE COUNTIES OF KLEBERG...NUECES...
SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO AND CALHOUN FOR TIDE LEVELS
RUNNING 2 TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL DURING HIGH TIDE.

THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF FACING
BEACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED BRIEF HEAT INDEX READING AROUND 106 DEGREES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING
MAINLY IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD TOUCHDOWN IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER VICTORIA AND CALHOUN COUNTIES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF-FACING BEACHES
THURSDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...ANY INLAND OR
COASTAL FLOODING REPORTS...ALONG WITH FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS SHOULD
BE RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-181100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
532 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND FOR THE BAYS AND WATERWAYS PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O'CONNOR THROUGH LATE MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS TODAY.
ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS AT TIMES IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WATERSPOUTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...ANY MARINE
REPORTS CONCERNING WATERSPOUTS OR STRONG WIND GUSTS RELAYED TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI WILL BE APPRECIATED.

GW/MB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
451 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MATHIS                  28.09N 97.82W
06/17/2015                   SAN PATRICIO       TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SOME ROADS 2 TO 3 FEET UNDERWATER ON EAST SIDE OF MATHIS
            INCLUDING FM 666...SH 359...BUS 359...SPUR 459. WATER IS
            HAMPERING BARRICADE SETUP.

&&

IBLAYLOC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
453 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ORANGE GROVE            27.96N 97.94W
06/17/2015                   JIM WELLS          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN ORANGE GROVE.

&&

IBLAYLOC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
458 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

TXZ242-243-172245-
NUECES-KLEBERG-
458 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NUECES AND WESTERN
KLEBERG COUNTIES...

AT 456 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER RICARDO. THE STORM
WAS MOVING NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KINGSVILLE...BISHOP...RICARDO...KINGSVILLE NAVAL AIR STATION...
RIVIERA AND LOYOLA BEACH.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 2727 9803 2764 9800 2764 9794 2767 9794
      2765 9763 2737 9768 2738 9768 2738 9770
      2739 9770 2743 9774 2742 9774 2738 9772
      2737 9773 2737 9771 2734 9769 2729 9769
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 180DEG 0KT 2736 9747

JM