Alert archive / North Dakota / Tornado Warnings in 2015

Tornado Warning 11, NWS Bismarck, ND

June 30, 2015Bowman County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this tornado warning at Jun 30, 2015, 7:27 PM MDT for Bowman County, North Dakota. It was in force for 14 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jun 30, 2015, 7:27 PM MDT (01:27 UTC)
Expired: Jun 30, 2015, 7:41 PM MDT
In force: 14 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Observed
Hail: 2.0 in

County Bowman County, ND

The radar

The Rapid City radar (KUDX), 210 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jun 30, 7:31 PM MDT	TORNADO	5 Wsw Bowman Haley Dam, ND

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this tornado warning; the first came 4 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 30, 4:29 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Rapid City, SD (KRAP), launched 00:00Z, 1.5 hours before the alert went out and 216 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1007 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -123 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1673 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 35 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 125 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 3.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

763 
WFUS53 KBIS 010127
TORBIS
NDC011-010200-
/O.NEW.KBIS.TO.W.0011.150701T0127Z-150701T0200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
727 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN BOWMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 800 PM MDT

* AT 727 PM MDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTH OF
  LUDLOW...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF BOWMAN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER. 

  SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. 

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE 
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY. 

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
  SOUTHEASTERN BOWMAN COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4595 10347 4600 10349 4602 10331 4595 10325
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 328DEG 18KT 4597 10339 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...2.00IN

$$

JONES

1 follow-up statement

085 
WWUS53 KBIS 010141
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
741 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NDC011-010150-
/O.CAN.KBIS.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-150701T0200Z/
BOWMAN ND-
741 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BOWMAN COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM MDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4595 10347 4600 10349 4602 10331 4595 10325
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 328DEG 18KT 4591 10334 

$$

JONES

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this tornado warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this tornado warning went out at Jun 30, 6:30 PM MDT, 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 30, 6:30 PM MDT, 57 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
730 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THIS UPDATE. SEVERAL
STRONG SUPER CELLS WERE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE AN EAST WEST AREA OF NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED MOVING SOUTH ALONG LAKE SAKAKAWEA.
RAP MODEL MAKES A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (POSSIBLY SEVERE)...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST...AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED TO PLAGUE A PORTION OF
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY FROM WATFORD CITY NORTH TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND AS FAR EAST AS AROUND MINOT. VISIBILITIES HAD
IMPROVED TO 2-6 MILES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MIXING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE BORDER OF
MT/SD/WY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WAS KEEPING
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED SURFACE BASED
AND MIXED LAYER CAPES SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND
HAVE SEEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESPITE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS.
FARTHER WEST IN MONTANA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WOULD EXPECT
SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL - AND WATCHING FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 5.5-6.5 C/KM ARE NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SUSTAINED STORMS - AT LEAST NOT APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. THIS MAY
CHANGE WITH TIME HOWEVER.

AT UPPER LEVELS...THE ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WILL SEE HOW THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT...BUT KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
MENTION UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

YET ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE
STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE STRONG NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR AND CAPE FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REVISIT
THIS TO DETERMINE WHETHER SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE LONG TERM CAN BEST BE CATEGORIZED AS A ROLLER COASTER.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
EXITS THE REGION. THERE'S A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE SEVERE AS
CAPE...SHEAR AND FORCING REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INHIBIT AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES COULD BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE
MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING OF THE 4TH.

TEMPERATURES WILL SWING FROM THE 70S AND LOW 80S LATE THIS
WEEK...TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY...AND THEN BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. MAINLY
IMPACTING KDIK-KBIS THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN KJMS AFTER MID.
OTHERWISE THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE SMOKE LAYER. SMOKE REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT KISN-KMOT
WITH 3-5 MILES FU AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 30, 4:55 PM MDT, 2 hours 32 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
555 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NDZ001-009-017>020-031>034-040>045-012300-
DIVIDE-WILLIAMS-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-GOLDEN VALLEY-
BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
555 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A
COUPLE TORNADOS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE BISMARCK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
1-800-247-0212...OR POST REPORTS TO FACEBOOK OR TWITTER.

NDZ002>005-010>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-012300-
BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-
MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-EMMONS-
LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
555 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE BISMARCK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
1-800-247-0212...OR POST REPORTS TO FACEBOOK OR TWITTER.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 30, 6:53 PM MDT, 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
753 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 N GRIFFIN             46.23N 103.54W
06/30/2015                   BOWMAN             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED BY OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

KROLAK

Local storm report, Jun 30, 6:57 PM MDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
757 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     HAIL             BEACH                   46.92N 104.00W
06/30/2015  E0.25 INCH       GOLDEN VALLEY      ND   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BDD

Local storm report, Jun 30, 6:59 PM MDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
759 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     HAIL             3 W BOWMAN              46.18N 103.46W
06/30/2015  E1.75 INCH       BOWMAN             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL LASTED FOR ABOUT 1 MINUTE. SPOTTER DROVE THROUGH
            THE HAIL. AT ABOUT 754 CDT.

&&

KROLAK

Local storm report, Jun 30, 7:08 PM MDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
808 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     HAIL             BOWMAN                  46.18N 103.39W
06/30/2015  E1.75 INCH       BOWMAN             ND   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BDD

Local storm report, Jun 30, 7:16 PM MDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
816 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND GST     WATFORD CITY            47.80N 103.28W
06/30/2015  E58 MPH          MCKENZIE           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KROLAK

Local storm report, Jun 30, 7:18 PM MDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
818 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND GST     WATFORD CITY            47.80N 103.28W
06/30/2015  E58 MPH          MCKENZIE           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POLE BARN WAS DESTROYED. THE DEBRIS FROM THE BARN WAS
            LIFTED AND THROWN 800 TO 100 FEET.. ESTIMATED TIME OF
            OCCURRENCE WAS 745 TO 800 PM CDT.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

KROLAK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 30, 6:11 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Bowman, Slope	64 min
Jun 30, 6:30 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings, Golden Valley	47 min
Jun 30, 6:42 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Bowman	33 min
Jun 30, 6:59 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Adams, Bowman	61 min
Jun 30, 7:08 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings, Dunn, McKenzie	56 min
Jun 30, 7:22 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Bowman, Slope	41 min
Jun 30, 8:20 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Stark	40 min
Jun 30, 8:58 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Hettinger, Stark	32 min
Jun 30, 9:13 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Burleigh, Morton	47 min
Jun 30, 9:24 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Hettinger	36 min
Jun 30, 9:37 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant	38 min
Jun 30, 10:17 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Sioux	58 min
Jul 1, 2:07 AM MDT	Dense Fog Advisory	BIS	Bottineau, Burke, Divide, McHenry, Mountrail, Pierce and 3 more	7 hr

Nearby

Tornado Warnings in North Dakota, 2015 Every tornado warning in 2015 Tornadoes in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.