Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
730 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THIS UPDATE. SEVERAL
STRONG SUPER CELLS WERE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE AN EAST WEST AREA OF NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED MOVING SOUTH ALONG LAKE SAKAKAWEA.
RAP MODEL MAKES A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (POSSIBLY SEVERE)...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST...AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED TO PLAGUE A PORTION OF
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY FROM WATFORD CITY NORTH TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND AS FAR EAST AS AROUND MINOT. VISIBILITIES HAD
IMPROVED TO 2-6 MILES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MIXING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE BORDER OF
MT/SD/WY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WAS KEEPING
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED SURFACE BASED
AND MIXED LAYER CAPES SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND
HAVE SEEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESPITE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS.
FARTHER WEST IN MONTANA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WOULD EXPECT
SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL - AND WATCHING FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 5.5-6.5 C/KM ARE NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SUSTAINED STORMS - AT LEAST NOT APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. THIS MAY
CHANGE WITH TIME HOWEVER.

AT UPPER LEVELS...THE ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WILL SEE HOW THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT...BUT KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
MENTION UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

YET ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE
STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE STRONG NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR AND CAPE FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REVISIT
THIS TO DETERMINE WHETHER SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE LONG TERM CAN BEST BE CATEGORIZED AS A ROLLER COASTER.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
EXITS THE REGION. THERE'S A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE SEVERE AS
CAPE...SHEAR AND FORCING REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INHIBIT AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES COULD BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE
MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING OF THE 4TH.

TEMPERATURES WILL SWING FROM THE 70S AND LOW 80S LATE THIS
WEEK...TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY...AND THEN BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. MAINLY
IMPACTING KDIK-KBIS THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN KJMS AFTER MID.
OTHERWISE THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE SMOKE LAYER. SMOKE REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT KISN-KMOT
WITH 3-5 MILES FU AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NDZ018>020-031>034-040>045-020300-
DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-SLOPE-
HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
956 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A
COUPLE TORNADOS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE BISMARCK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
1-800-247-0212...OR POST REPORTS TO FACEBOOK OR TWITTER.

NDZ002>005-010>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-020300-
BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-
MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-EMMONS-
LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
956 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE BISMARCK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
1-800-247-0212...OR POST REPORTS TO FACEBOOK OR TWITTER.

NDZ001-009-017-020300-
DIVIDE-WILLIAMS-MCKENZIE-
956 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE BISMARCK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
1-800-247-0212...OR POST REPORTS TO FACEBOOK OR TWITTER.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
944 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     HAIL             3 N DICKINSON           46.92N 102.79W
06/30/2015  E0.25 INCH       STARK              ND   PUBLIC

&&

KROLAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
945 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     HAIL             3 N DICKINSON           46.92N 102.79W
06/30/2015  E0.25 INCH       STARK              ND   PUBLIC

            HEAVY RAIN AND WINDY.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

KROLAK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
858 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NDZ033-041-010330-
STARK-HETTINGER-
858 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL STARK
AND NORTHERN HETTINGER COUNTIES...

AT 858 PM MDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS 12 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GLADSTONE...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DICKINSON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
REGENT...DICKINSON REGIONAL AIRPORT AND LEFOR.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM MDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4677 10289 4686 10266 4645 10218 4630 10262
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 332DEG 38KT 4669 10267

SIMOSKO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1013 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NDZ034-035-042-010400-
MORTON-BURLEIGH-GRANT-
1013 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BURLEIGH...
NORTHWESTERN GRANT AND CENTRAL MORTON COUNTIES...

AT 1011 PM CDT /911 PM MDT/...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WING TO 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HEART BUTTE DAM...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BISMARCK...MANDAN...ELGIN...LINCOLN...NEW SALEM...CARSON...
MENOKEN...STERLING...ALMONT...ST. ANTHONY...HEART BUTTE DAM...
DRISCOLL...JUDSON...MCKENZIE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4672 10210 4716 10013 4705 10011 4698 10011
      4698 10009 4689 10007 4675 10008 4637 10189
TIME...MOT...LOC 0311Z 326DEG 22KT 4710 10019 4670 10198

ABELING