Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
214 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE IS SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE EXCEEDING 3000J/KG AS OF 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 30-35 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR SOUTH CENTRAL...AND
PWATS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OVER ALL BUT SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...AND OVER 1.3 IN OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG AND NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTH... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
NEAR MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...AIDING IN THE SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION. WILL BE SENDING UP A SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING TODAY.

MESOSCALE MODELS ARE GIVING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ON HOW CONVECTION MAY
EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN GENERAL...MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE
TRIED TO DEVELOP A FEW SUPERCELLS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THEN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND TRACKS EAST. LATEST WRF
DEVELOPS A QLCS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND TRACKS IT ACROSS THE
STATE. THE 12Z HOPWRF KEEPS CONVECTION PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE CWA
TODAY WITH CELLS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTHEAST OF JAMESTOWN AND
TRACKING INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. NO MATTER WHAT EVENTUALLY
HAPPENS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MOST OBVIOUS THREATS...BUT VERY
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD LESSEN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING...MUCH EARLIER THAN LAST NIGHTS ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. AS
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE INDICATING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN A NORTH FLOW. EXPECT A MUCH COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH LATE WEEK. NOW INDICATIONS ARE THIS RIDGE WILL BE
FURTHER TO EAST...ALLOWING MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA TO RESIDE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
A NEARLY DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S AND 80S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL INCLUDING KISN AND KMOT WITH MVFR TO EVEN IFR
CEILINGS. SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS FROM KDIK TO KBIS AND KJMS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK
SOUTHEAST. ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH AROUND 21 UTC AT
KDIK...00 UTC AT KBIS AND 02 UTC AT KJMS. ANY STORM CAN EXPECT TO
HAVE MVFR-IFR CEILING/VSBYS IN VERY HEAVY RAIN. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL
IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW
TURNS NORTH WITH LOWER STRATUS REMAINING THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
222 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-031930-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
222 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW
LYING AREAS. THE GREATEST THREAT IS IN THE AREA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 85. ALSO...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE
LATER TODAY OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS...KEEP ALERT THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. REPORT
ALL HAIL...WIND OVER 40 MPH...AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. PLEASE SUMMIT REPORTS TO OUR SOCIAL MEDIA PAGES
AT FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBISMARCK...TWITTER.COM/NWSBISMARCK OR GIVE US A
CALL AT 701-223-4582.

TWH/AJ

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