Alert archive / North Dakota / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

June 2, 2015Dunn County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this special weather statement at Jun 2, 2015, 2:16 PM MDT for Dunn County, North Dakota. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 2, 2015, 2:16 PM MDT (20:16 UTC)
Expired: Jun 2, 2015, 3:00 PM MDT
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND

County Dunn County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 145 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 149 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1035 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -77 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -68 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jun 2, 1:14 PM MDT, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 2, 1:14 PM MDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
214 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE IS SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE EXCEEDING 3000J/KG AS OF 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 30-35 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR SOUTH CENTRAL...AND
PWATS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OVER ALL BUT SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...AND OVER 1.3 IN OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG AND NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTH... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
NEAR MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...AIDING IN THE SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION. WILL BE SENDING UP A SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING TODAY.

MESOSCALE MODELS ARE GIVING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ON HOW CONVECTION MAY
EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN GENERAL...MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE
TRIED TO DEVELOP A FEW SUPERCELLS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THEN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND TRACKS EAST. LATEST WRF
DEVELOPS A QLCS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND TRACKS IT ACROSS THE
STATE. THE 12Z HOPWRF KEEPS CONVECTION PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE CWA
TODAY WITH CELLS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTHEAST OF JAMESTOWN AND
TRACKING INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. NO MATTER WHAT EVENTUALLY
HAPPENS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MOST OBVIOUS THREATS...BUT VERY
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD LESSEN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING...MUCH EARLIER THAN LAST NIGHTS ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. AS
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE INDICATING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN A NORTH FLOW. EXPECT A MUCH COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH LATE WEEK. NOW INDICATIONS ARE THIS RIDGE WILL BE
FURTHER TO EAST...ALLOWING MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA TO RESIDE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
A NEARLY DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S AND 80S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL INCLUDING KISN AND KMOT WITH MVFR TO EVEN IFR
CEILINGS. SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS FROM KDIK TO KBIS AND KJMS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK
SOUTHEAST. ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH AROUND 21 UTC AT
KDIK...00 UTC AT KBIS AND 02 UTC AT KJMS. ANY STORM CAN EXPECT TO
HAVE MVFR-IFR CEILING/VSBYS IN VERY HEAVY RAIN. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL
IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW
TURNS NORTH WITH LOWER STRATUS REMAINING THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 2, 1:22 PM MDT, 54 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
222 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-031930-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
222 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW
LYING AREAS. THE GREATEST THREAT IS IN THE AREA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 85. ALSO...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE
LATER TODAY OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS...KEEP ALERT THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. REPORT
ALL HAIL...WIND OVER 40 MPH...AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. PLEASE SUMMIT REPORTS TO OUR SOCIAL MEDIA PAGES
AT FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBISMARCK...TWITTER.COM/NWSBISMARCK OR GIVE US A
CALL AT 701-223-4582.

TWH/AJ

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 2, 10:08 AM MDT, 4 hours 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1108 AM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1107 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FRYBURG                 46.87N 103.30W
06/02/2015  M1.00 INCH       BILLINGS           ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            OVERNIGHT STORM TOTAL

&&

AC

Local storm report, Jun 2, 1:53 PM MDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
253 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0232 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 W DICKINSON           46.88N 102.83W
06/02/2015                   STARK              ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER WITH PHOTO EMAILED AND
            OBVIOUS FUNNEL.

&&

SCHECK

Local storm report, Jun 2, 2:01 PM MDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
301 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 PM     HAIL             PRAIRIE KNIGHTS RESORT  46.27N 100.64W
06/02/2015  E1.00 INCH       SIOUX              ND   PUBLIC

            HAIL LASTED AROUND 10 MINUTES AND HEAVY RAIN ALSO
            REPORTED

&&

MMATHEWS

Local storm report, Jun 2, 2:04 PM MDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
304 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             8 E PRAIRIE KNIGHTS RES 46.27N 100.47W
06/02/2015  M0.88 INCH       EMMONS             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MMATHEWS

Local storm report, Jun 2, 2:06 PM MDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
306 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 SW KILLDEER           47.34N 102.80W
06/02/2015                   DUNN               ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICER COULD NOT VERIFY TOUCHDOWN.
            THREE 911 CALLS ALSO REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUDS.

&&

SCHECK

Special weather statement, Jun 2, 2:16 PM MDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
316 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

NDZ010-017>019-021-033-022100-
STARK ND-MOUNTRAIL ND-MERCER ND-MCKENZIE ND-MCLEAN ND-DUNN ND-
316 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN STARK...
EAST CENTRAL MCKENZIE...DUNN...NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN...SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTRAIL AND WESTERN MERCER COUNTIES...

AT 314 PM CDT /214 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF 4 BEARS LODGE TO 9 MILES NORTH OF TAYLOR...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KILLDEER...NEW TOWN...HALLIDAY...DUNN CENTER...DODGE...MARSHALL...VAN
HOOK PARK...LITTLE MISSOURI STATE PARK...MANDAREE...MCKENZIE BAY
RECREATION AREA...SKUNK CREEK BAY RECREATION AREA...TWIN BUTTES...
PARSHALL BAY RECREATION AREA...HIRSCHVILLE...OAKDALE...POUCH POINT
RECREATION AREA AND JOHNSONS CORNER.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4785 10304 4802 10232 4699 10198 4698 10209
      4694 10210 4694 10263
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 231DEG 23KT 4790 10280 4703 10248

SCHILD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 1, 6:21 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Bottineau	39 min
Jun 1, 6:47 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Bottineau	43 min
Jun 1, 7:25 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	McLean	50 min
Jun 1, 7:35 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Rolette	40 min
Jun 1, 7:49 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McLean, Mercer	56 min
Jun 1, 8:32 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McLean, Mercer	32 min
Jun 1, 8:51 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, Mercer	54 min
Jun 1, 9:59 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Mercer, Oliver	31 min
Jun 1, 10:04 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Dunn	26 min
Jun 1, 10:46 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Dunn, Mercer, Oliver	44 min
Jun 1, 11:12 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Oliver	48 min
Jun 1, 11:28 PM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	Dunn, McLean, Mercer, Oliver	8 hr
Jun 2, 12:27 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Billings, Golden Valley	48 min
Jun 2, 4:11 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Logan	49 min
Jun 2, 1:43 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Emmons, Sioux	62 min
Jun 2, 2:34 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, Mercer, Morton, Stark	56 min
Jun 2, 2:43 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, McKenzie, McLean, Mountrail	62 min
Jun 2, 2:52 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Emmons	53 min
Jun 2, 3:25 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Morton, Stark	35 min
Jun 2, 3:48 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Morton	57 min
Jun 2, 3:53 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Mountrail	52 min
Jun 2, 4:07 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	McLean	23 min
Jun 2, 4:44 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Emmons, Morton, Sioux	61 min
Jun 2, 5:36 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Foster	39 min
Jun 2, 5:39 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Emmons, Morton, Sioux	66 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Dakota, 2015 Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.