Alert archive / North Dakota / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 247

June 2, 201516 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jun 2, 2015, 2:46 PM CDT for 16 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 2, 2015, 2:46 PM CDT (19:46 UTC)
Expired: Jun 2, 2015, 10:00 PM CDT
In force: 7 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 2 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

Counties Barnes County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Foster County, ND, Grant County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, Morton County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Stutsman County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 41 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 20%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 70%

Warnings issued inside it

9 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 2, 3:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, Mercer, Morton, Stark	56 min
Jun 2, 3:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Emmons	53 min
Jun 2, 4:25 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Morton, Stark	35 min
Jun 2, 4:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Morton	57 min
Jun 2, 5:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Emmons, Morton, Sioux	61 min
Jun 2, 6:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Emmons, Morton, Sioux	66 min
Jun 2, 7:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Foster, Stutsman	58 min
Jun 2, 7:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dickey, LaMoure	58 min
Jun 2, 9:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Sargent	45 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 37 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1035 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -77 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -68 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

637 
WWUS20 KWNS 021944
SEL7  
SPC WW 021944
NDZ000-SDZ000-030300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 247
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
  NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL
  1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
BISMARCK NORTH DAKOTA TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF JAMESTOWN
NORTH DAKOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.


...MEAD

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 2, 2:28 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barnes, Cass, Dickey, Emmons, Kidder, LaMoure and 7 more	92 min
Jun 2, 6:22 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barnes, Burleigh, Dickey, Emmons, Foster, Grant and 8 more	113 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in North Dakota, 2015 Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.