Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
637 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00 TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTION WILL START WINDING DOWN WITH SUNSET...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
SAVED PREVAILING THUNDER FOR KAMA UNTIL CLOSER TO AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ALL THE TERMINALS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...SLOWLY LIFTING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 8 TO 15KTS WITH PERIODS OF GUSTS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. VERY IMPRESSIVE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
OF 3000-4500 J/KG ARE PRESENT...AND A MODERATE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR...THOUGH
MAINLY OF THE DIRECTIONAL VARIETY. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY
THREATS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. STORMS WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON TODAY'S SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEE MESOSCALE UPDATE
IN PREVIOUS AFD.

THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAJA WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND...AND
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AHEAD OF IT IN GENERALLY
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY. A BIT DIFFICULT
TO PICK OUT THE BETTER CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE MAIN FORCING
WILL BE LIKELY TIED TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS YET TO BE RESOLVED
CLEARLY...AND AS SUCH...DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ONE POSSIBILITY ARE THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES AGAIN AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE REMAINS IN PLACE...THOUGH
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THAT AREA WILL BE IN THE PANHANDLES OR
FURTHER EAST OVER OKLAHOMA. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-60S ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY'S PLACEMENT...AS WELL AS FORECASTED SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG. THIS COULD BE LIMITED THOUGH
BY LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
MOST CLEAR SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE
PANHANDLES. ALSO APPEARS A SURFACE FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING DURING THIS PERIOD. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WE SEE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

BY SUNDAY....UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLES TO START
THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR AREA FAIRLY DRY...THOUGH ANY
CONVECTION THAT FORMS UPSTREAM COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME.  THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE STARTS PUSHING EAST AND BREAKING DOWN SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

18/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1008 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-281515-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
1008 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS...AND A LOW THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY...WITH A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A DRIER PATTERN DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

GOEHRING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
704 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW CANADIAN          35.94N 100.40W
05/27/2015                   HEMPHILL           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CLOSED HIGHWAY 83 NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60 DUE TO TREES ON
            THE ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500493

CLK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
708 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 E WAYSIDE             34.79N 101.44W
05/27/2015                   ARMSTRONG          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MUDSLIDES COVERING HIGHWAY 207 NEAR THE SCENIC OVERLOOK
            IN THE CANYON

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500494

CLK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
926 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WAYSIDE                 34.79N 101.55W
05/27/2015                   ARMSTRONG          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER COVERING FARM TO MARKET 285 AND CURVES IN THE
            ROAD JUST WEST OF WAYSIDE ARE UNDER WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500495

CLK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
943 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             WAYSIDE                 34.79N 101.55W
05/27/2015  E2.75 INCH       ARMSTRONG          TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500496

CLK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
944 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N CANADIAN            35.94N 100.38W
05/27/2015                   HEMPHILL           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 83 NORTH OF CANADIAN CLOSED DUE TO FLASH
            FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500497

KB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1007 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     HAIL             BORGER                  35.66N 101.40W
05/27/2015  E2.00 INCH       HUTCHINSON         TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500498

CLK