Storm Warning 69, NWS Juneau, AK

887 
FZAK51 PAJK 311934 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1034 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-010100-
1034 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A STORM FORCE FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE THURSDAY. ANOTHER GALE FORCE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF FRIDAY. 

$$

PKZ011-010100-
GLACIER BAY-
1034 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-010100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1034 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-010100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1034 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-010100-
ICY STRAIT-
1034 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-010100-
CROSS SOUND-
1034 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. SW
SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-010100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1034 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 45 KT. STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF DOUGLAS
ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-010100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1034 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-010100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1034 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. STRONGEST WINDS NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. GUSTS
TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT
14 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT
16 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-010100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1034 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-010100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1034 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. STRONGEST WINDS NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. GUSTS
TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING
TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL.
RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-010100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1034 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING THEN
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN IN
THE MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
213 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...HIGHLY MERIDIONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE WRN
ALEUTIANS AND A SHARP RIDGE EXTENDING N FROM THE NERN PAC TO NWRN
CANADA. QUASI-STATIONARY N-S ORIENTED GALE/STORM FORCE FRONT IS
PRESENT IN BETWEEN...WITH INTENSE MOISTURE FLUX SPREADING NNW ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE GULF AND ACROSS AKZ017/YAKUTAT. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH STRONG MESOSCALE/OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
YIELD HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THROUGH WED NIGHT.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL THEN BE SHUNTED
EWD ON THU AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NERN GULF DURING
THE MORNING...AND THEN OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY THU AFTERNOON.
RAIN...LOCALLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY...WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLE /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SRN
AKZ028 AND MOST OF AKZ029/. STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER
LYNN CANAL WILL YIELD STRONG MOISTURE FLUX/UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE
KLONDIKE HIGHWAY BETWEEN 15-03Z...AND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
NEAR FREEZING...6 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS PROBABLE NEAR WHITE PASS
/BEFORE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES NNE OR THE AREA/. THUS...WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING /REF LATEST WARNING
STATEMENT FOR MORE INFORMATION/.

OTHERWISE...STORM FORCE SELYS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ERN GULF TONIGHT...WITH GALES EXPECTED OVER THE SRN INSIDE
CHANNELS ON THU AS THE FRONT MOVES E AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO APPEAR PROBABLE FOR AREAS PRONE
TO SELYS IN AKZ027. FARTHER N...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SELY
925 MB WINDS UP TO 60 KT SPREADING NW ACROSS STEPHENS PASSAGE AND
OVER THE JUNEAU AREA BETWEEN 12-21Z THU...WHICH SHOULD BE ADEQUATE
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS INVOF GASTINEAU CHANNEL.

INHERITED PRESSURE GRIDS WERE NUDGED TO THE NAM IN ORDER TO ADD
RESOLUTION TO THE FRONT OVER THE GULF. WINDS WERE MODIFIED WHERE
NECESSARY FOR LOCAL EFFECTS. REMAINDER OF THE GRIDS WERE UPDATED
WITH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND.

.LONG TERM...FRONTAL ZONE WILL WAVER BACK AND FORTH E-W INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A FEW MORE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA.
THEN IT LOOKS LIKE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO A MORE SELY DIRECTION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SHIFT MAIN FRONTAL BAND OFFSHORE FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME. A NEW FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE NE AROUND
TUE-WED...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THIS. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE THU NIGHT-SAT PERIOD. DID GO
AHEAD AND USE LATEST WPC FOR SAT NIGHT ONWARD.

FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI...THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST OFFSHORE. A
COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVES MAY RIDE THE FRONT NWD DURING
THIS TIME. THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL
OUTER COAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FAR SE AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
INTO THE PRECIP DUE TO EFFECTS OF UPPER RIDGE NEARBY. THERE WILL
BE BANDS OF GALE FORCE WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
AS EACH LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES PAST. INNER CHANNELS WILL BE
MOSTLY SCA LEVEL WINDS.

FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND
MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE OUTER COAST. RAIN WILL
INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NE GULF COAST AND NRN HALF OF THE INNER
CHANNELS. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
FRONTAL ZONE...BUT WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE N GULF AS SECOND FRONT
MOVES IN.

FOR SAT NIGHT-SUN...LOOKS LIKE ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE N
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO SELY AND FORCES FRONTAL
ZONE OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS IT. THE PRECIP WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY ESPECIALLY SUN AS THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOKING LIKE A DRIER PERIOD FOR THE AREA AS
SELY FLOW ALOFT KEEPS SYSTEMS MOSTLY TO THE SW OF THE AREA. A NEW
FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE BACK INTO THE ERN GULF BY LATE TUE INTO WED
BUT BULK OF UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD STAY TO THE SW OF THE AREA SO
ONLY SHOW GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS FOR TUE-WED PERIOD.
OVERALL...ENTIRE LONG RANGE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE MILD
SIDE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ025.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ042-043-051.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-036-041-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034-053.

&&

GARNER/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU