High Wind Warning 14, NWS Juneau, AK

719 
WWAK77 PAJK 311901
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1001 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

AKZ017-312015-
/O.EXP.PAJK.HW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-151231T1900Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
1001 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 10 AM AKST.
HOWEVER...GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
213 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...HIGHLY MERIDIONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE WRN
ALEUTIANS AND A SHARP RIDGE EXTENDING N FROM THE NERN PAC TO NWRN
CANADA. QUASI-STATIONARY N-S ORIENTED GALE/STORM FORCE FRONT IS
PRESENT IN BETWEEN...WITH INTENSE MOISTURE FLUX SPREADING NNW ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE GULF AND ACROSS AKZ017/YAKUTAT. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH STRONG MESOSCALE/OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
YIELD HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THROUGH WED NIGHT.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL THEN BE SHUNTED
EWD ON THU AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NERN GULF DURING
THE MORNING...AND THEN OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY THU AFTERNOON.
RAIN...LOCALLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY...WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLE /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SRN
AKZ028 AND MOST OF AKZ029/. STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER
LYNN CANAL WILL YIELD STRONG MOISTURE FLUX/UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE
KLONDIKE HIGHWAY BETWEEN 15-03Z...AND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
NEAR FREEZING...6 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS PROBABLE NEAR WHITE PASS
/BEFORE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES NNE OR THE AREA/. THUS...WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING /REF LATEST WARNING
STATEMENT FOR MORE INFORMATION/.

OTHERWISE...STORM FORCE SELYS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ERN GULF TONIGHT...WITH GALES EXPECTED OVER THE SRN INSIDE
CHANNELS ON THU AS THE FRONT MOVES E AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO APPEAR PROBABLE FOR AREAS PRONE
TO SELYS IN AKZ027. FARTHER N...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SELY
925 MB WINDS UP TO 60 KT SPREADING NW ACROSS STEPHENS PASSAGE AND
OVER THE JUNEAU AREA BETWEEN 12-21Z THU...WHICH SHOULD BE ADEQUATE
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS INVOF GASTINEAU CHANNEL.

INHERITED PRESSURE GRIDS WERE NUDGED TO THE NAM IN ORDER TO ADD
RESOLUTION TO THE FRONT OVER THE GULF. WINDS WERE MODIFIED WHERE
NECESSARY FOR LOCAL EFFECTS. REMAINDER OF THE GRIDS WERE UPDATED
WITH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND.

.LONG TERM...FRONTAL ZONE WILL WAVER BACK AND FORTH E-W INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A FEW MORE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA.
THEN IT LOOKS LIKE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO A MORE SELY DIRECTION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SHIFT MAIN FRONTAL BAND OFFSHORE FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME. A NEW FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE NE AROUND
TUE-WED...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THIS. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE THU NIGHT-SAT PERIOD. DID GO
AHEAD AND USE LATEST WPC FOR SAT NIGHT ONWARD.

FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI...THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST OFFSHORE. A
COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVES MAY RIDE THE FRONT NWD DURING
THIS TIME. THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL
OUTER COAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FAR SE AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
INTO THE PRECIP DUE TO EFFECTS OF UPPER RIDGE NEARBY. THERE WILL
BE BANDS OF GALE FORCE WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
AS EACH LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES PAST. INNER CHANNELS WILL BE
MOSTLY SCA LEVEL WINDS.

FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND
MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE OUTER COAST. RAIN WILL
INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NE GULF COAST AND NRN HALF OF THE INNER
CHANNELS. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
FRONTAL ZONE...BUT WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE N GULF AS SECOND FRONT
MOVES IN.

FOR SAT NIGHT-SUN...LOOKS LIKE ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE N
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO SELY AND FORCES FRONTAL
ZONE OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS IT. THE PRECIP WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY ESPECIALLY SUN AS THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOKING LIKE A DRIER PERIOD FOR THE AREA AS
SELY FLOW ALOFT KEEPS SYSTEMS MOSTLY TO THE SW OF THE AREA. A NEW
FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE BACK INTO THE ERN GULF BY LATE TUE INTO WED
BUT BULK OF UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD STAY TO THE SW OF THE AREA SO
ONLY SHOW GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS FOR TUE-WED PERIOD.
OVERALL...ENTIRE LONG RANGE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE MILD
SIDE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ025.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ042-043-051.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-036-041-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034-053.

&&

GARNER/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU