Storm Warning 68, NWS Juneau, AK

189 
FZAK52 PAJK 311925 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1025 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-010100-
1025 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE THURSDAY. ANOTHER GALE FORCE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF FRIDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-010100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1025 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-010100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1025 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING
TO 19 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE INCREASING TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-010100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1025 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO
18 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-010100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1025 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 26 FT SUBSIDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-010100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1025 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
23 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE.
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
213 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...HIGHLY MERIDIONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE WRN
ALEUTIANS AND A SHARP RIDGE EXTENDING N FROM THE NERN PAC TO NWRN
CANADA. QUASI-STATIONARY N-S ORIENTED GALE/STORM FORCE FRONT IS
PRESENT IN BETWEEN...WITH INTENSE MOISTURE FLUX SPREADING NNW ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE GULF AND ACROSS AKZ017/YAKUTAT. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH STRONG MESOSCALE/OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
YIELD HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THROUGH WED NIGHT.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL THEN BE SHUNTED
EWD ON THU AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NERN GULF DURING
THE MORNING...AND THEN OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY THU AFTERNOON.
RAIN...LOCALLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY...WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLE /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SRN
AKZ028 AND MOST OF AKZ029/. STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER
LYNN CANAL WILL YIELD STRONG MOISTURE FLUX/UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE
KLONDIKE HIGHWAY BETWEEN 15-03Z...AND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
NEAR FREEZING...6 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS PROBABLE NEAR WHITE PASS
/BEFORE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES NNE OR THE AREA/. THUS...WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING /REF LATEST WARNING
STATEMENT FOR MORE INFORMATION/.

OTHERWISE...STORM FORCE SELYS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ERN GULF TONIGHT...WITH GALES EXPECTED OVER THE SRN INSIDE
CHANNELS ON THU AS THE FRONT MOVES E AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO APPEAR PROBABLE FOR AREAS PRONE
TO SELYS IN AKZ027. FARTHER N...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SELY
925 MB WINDS UP TO 60 KT SPREADING NW ACROSS STEPHENS PASSAGE AND
OVER THE JUNEAU AREA BETWEEN 12-21Z THU...WHICH SHOULD BE ADEQUATE
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS INVOF GASTINEAU CHANNEL.

INHERITED PRESSURE GRIDS WERE NUDGED TO THE NAM IN ORDER TO ADD
RESOLUTION TO THE FRONT OVER THE GULF. WINDS WERE MODIFIED WHERE
NECESSARY FOR LOCAL EFFECTS. REMAINDER OF THE GRIDS WERE UPDATED
WITH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND.

.LONG TERM...FRONTAL ZONE WILL WAVER BACK AND FORTH E-W INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A FEW MORE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA.
THEN IT LOOKS LIKE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO A MORE SELY DIRECTION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SHIFT MAIN FRONTAL BAND OFFSHORE FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME. A NEW FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE NE AROUND
TUE-WED...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THIS. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE THU NIGHT-SAT PERIOD. DID GO
AHEAD AND USE LATEST WPC FOR SAT NIGHT ONWARD.

FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI...THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST OFFSHORE. A
COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVES MAY RIDE THE FRONT NWD DURING
THIS TIME. THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL
OUTER COAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FAR SE AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
INTO THE PRECIP DUE TO EFFECTS OF UPPER RIDGE NEARBY. THERE WILL
BE BANDS OF GALE FORCE WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
AS EACH LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES PAST. INNER CHANNELS WILL BE
MOSTLY SCA LEVEL WINDS.

FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND
MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE OUTER COAST. RAIN WILL
INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NE GULF COAST AND NRN HALF OF THE INNER
CHANNELS. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
FRONTAL ZONE...BUT WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE N GULF AS SECOND FRONT
MOVES IN.

FOR SAT NIGHT-SUN...LOOKS LIKE ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE N
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO SELY AND FORCES FRONTAL
ZONE OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS IT. THE PRECIP WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY ESPECIALLY SUN AS THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOKING LIKE A DRIER PERIOD FOR THE AREA AS
SELY FLOW ALOFT KEEPS SYSTEMS MOSTLY TO THE SW OF THE AREA. A NEW
FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE BACK INTO THE ERN GULF BY LATE TUE INTO WED
BUT BULK OF UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD STAY TO THE SW OF THE AREA SO
ONLY SHOW GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS FOR TUE-WED PERIOD.
OVERALL...ENTIRE LONG RANGE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE MILD
SIDE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ025.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ042-043-051.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-036-041-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034-053.

&&

GARNER/RWT

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