Storm Warning 50, NWS Juneau, AK

872 
FZAK67 PAJK 111948
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1047 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-121400-
1047 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF DURING THURSDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-121400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
1047 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN
RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. 
.THU...SW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU NIGHT...W GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

841 
FZAK67 PAJK 120027
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-121400-
400 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND
PANHANDLE WED NIGHT. A 962 MB LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF BY THU AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF STORM FORCE WINDS S OF THE
LOW SPREADS E OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF.

$$

PKZ310-121400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT LATE. RAIN
IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 35 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.THU NIGHT...W GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

054 
FZAK67 PAJK 120557 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
857 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-130000-
857 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND
PANHANDLE WED NIGHT. A 962 MB LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF BY THU AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF STORM FORCE WINDS S OF THE
LOW SPREADS E OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. 

$$

PKZ310-130000-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
857 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT
BUILDING TO 23 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 35 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU NIGHT...W GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

356 
FZAK67 PAJK 121248
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU NOV 12 2015 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-130100-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 12 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE ALASKA EARLY THU MORNING. A
STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE E INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THU
AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN OVER THE NE GULF THU NIGHT AND FRI. 

$$

PKZ310-130100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 12 2015 

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...SOUTHERN HALF...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 40 FT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN HALF...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT BUILDING
TO 25 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS TO 39 FT SUBSIDING TO 32 FT LATE.
HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT SUBSIDING TO 19 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
349 PM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY RAIN (AND SNOW TO
HYDER) THIS MORNING MOVED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AROUND MIDDAY.
THE HYDER AREA ENDED UP GETTING COLD ENOUGH LAST NIGHT (VIA SNOW
MELT COOLING) THAT THE HEAVY PRECIP TURNED INTO 13 INCHES OF SNOW
BY 11 AM THIS MORNING. WITH A COOL AIR MASS COMING IN FROM THE
GULF, PRECIP HAS CHANGED TO CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOWING UP ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS THE COOL AIR
MASS OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS CREATES A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN NATURE. PLUS WITH HOW
UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE IS (CAPE VALUES 300 TO 500 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDEX VALUES AROUND -3) SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY WITH
SOME SMALL ICE PELLETS OR SMALL HAIL AND SOME LIGHTNING. THESE
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE FOR THE GULF AND OUTER COAST AREAS.
THE SHOWERS DIMINISH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA.

ELSEWHERE THE COOL AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT 850 MB TEMPS
DROP INTO THE -4 TO -7 C RANGE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
THAT THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS COULD SEE SOME OF THESE RAIN
SHOWERS MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW.
HAINES AND SKAGWAY AREAS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW
TONIGHT WITH GUSTAVUS, JUNEAU, AND YAKUTAT MAYBE SEEING A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW LATE TONIGHT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AS FOR WIND, WESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT IN THE GULF DUE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN WHAT IS
LEFT OF LAST NIGHT'S FRONT AND THE WEAK RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF. OUTER COASTAL AREAS FROM CAPE FAIRWEATHER SOUTHWARD WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME OF THOSE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL. GUSTS
MAY REACH 30 MPH IN SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS. WINDS IN THE GULF
DIMINISH TOMORROW MORNING BUT THEN PICK RIGHT BACK UP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, THIS TIME FROM THE S AS THEN NEXT FRONT STARTS TO
APPROACH. THE OFFSHORE ZONE WILL START TO SEE GALE FORCE WINDS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY USED THE
GFS FOR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN...DANGEROUS SEAS...AND SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ALONG THE
KLONDIKE AND HAINES HIGHWAYS.

STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND OVER THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE
PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF ON THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE NORTHEAST GULF AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER THE WEEKEND MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS
TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LEADING TO VERY LOW FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY OVER THE GULF WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO STORM FORCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 30
TO 40 FEET THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WESTERLY AND REACH GALE TO STORM FORCE ON THURSDAY. STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER THE PANHANDLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. EXPECT TO SEE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 40
MPH ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE. WHILE WE DO EXPECT
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DO NOT
FORSEE ANY FLOODING ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM. STRONG WESTERLIES
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. SO EXPECT WINDS
TO REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY.

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE
HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS. THINK ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL GET INTO
THE AREA TO PRODUCE AROUND 6-8 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER AS
MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ONE ISSUE WITH GENERATING WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL BE THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM IS SUCH A QUICK
MOVER. SHIFT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
AREAS AT SEA LEVEL NEAR HAINES AND SKAGWAY. THINK ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR MAY REMAIN IN THE AREA COMBINED WITH LIGHT FLOW AS A
PARALLEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RESIDES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS. HOWEVER...HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE OTHER LOCATION OF CONCERN IS HYDER WHERE A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS A POTENTIAL TO LEAD TO
ACCUMULATING SNOW. HAVE INCLUDED A MIX IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
INCREASE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FROM LATER THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CAA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WILL INCREASE SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. GFS REMAINS THE COLDEST MODEL AND INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL BY LATE WEEKEND. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE WARMER OF THE TWO. THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

USED THE 12Z GFS FOR UPDATES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WERE MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO LOCAL EFFECT EDITS.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE ON A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-022-033-034-036-041>043-051.

&&

EAL/TPS

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