High Wind Warning 12, NWS Juneau, AK

583 
WWAK77 PAJK 112140
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1240 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

AKZ027-120700-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0012.151112T0600Z-151112T1200Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
1240 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
3 AM AKST THURSDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH

* TIMING...WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY CAUSE TREES AND BRANCHES TO FALL ONTO 
  ROADWAYS...STRUCTURES...AND POWER LINES. HIGH WINDS MAY ALSO 
  POSE A THREAT TO SMALL CRAFT UNDERWAY OR AT THEIR MOORINGS AS 
  WELL AS AIRCRAFT TIED DOWN OUTDOORS. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES 
  SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING ON LOCAL 
  ROADWAYS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 10 PM AKST OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ028-120700-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0012.151112T0900Z-151112T1200Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
1240 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
3 AM AKST THURSDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH

* TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY CAUSE TREES AND BRANCHES TO FALL ONTO 
  ROADWAYS...STRUCTURES...AND POWER LINES. HIGH WINDS MAY ALSO 
  POSE A THREAT TO SMALL CRAFT UNDERWAY OR AT THEIR MOORINGS AS 
  WELL AS AIRCRAFT TIED DOWN OUTDOORS. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES 
  SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING ON LOCAL 
  ROADWAYS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 10 PM AKST OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

253 
WWAK77 PAJK 120629
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
929 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

AKZ027-121200-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-151112T1200Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
929 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST THURSDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH

* TIMING...WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY CAUSE TREES AND BRANCHES TO FALL ONTO 
  ROADWAYS...STRUCTURES...AND POWER LINES. HIGH WINDS MAY ALSO 
  POSE A THREAT TO SMALL CRAFT UNDERWAY OR AT THEIR MOORINGS AS 
  WELL AS AIRCRAFT TIED DOWN OUTDOORS. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES 
  SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING ON LOCAL 
  ROADWAYS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ028-121200-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0012.151112T0900Z-151112T1200Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
929 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST THURSDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH

* TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY CAUSE TREES AND BRANCHES TO FALL ONTO 
  ROADWAYS...STRUCTURES...AND POWER LINES. HIGH WINDS MAY ALSO 
  POSE A THREAT TO SMALL CRAFT UNDERWAY OR AT THEIR MOORINGS AS 
  WELL AS AIRCRAFT TIED DOWN OUTDOORS. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES 
  SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING ON LOCAL 
  ROADWAYS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

792 
WWAK77 PAJK 121047
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
147 AM AKST THU NOV 12 2015
 
AKZ028-121500-
/O.EXT.PAJK.HW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-151112T1500Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
147 AM AKST THU NOV 12 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY CAUSE TREES AND BRANCHES TO FALL ONTO 
  ROADWAYS...STRUCTURES...AND POWER LINES. HIGH WINDS MAY ALSO 
  POSE A THREAT TO SMALL CRAFT UNDERWAY OR AT THEIR MOORINGS AS 
  WELL AS AIRCRAFT TIED DOWN OUTDOORS. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES 
  SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING ON LOCAL 
  ROADWAYS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ027-121200-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-151112T1200Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
147 AM AKST THU NOV 12 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY CAUSE TREES AND BRANCHES TO FALL ONTO 
  ROADWAYS...STRUCTURES...AND POWER LINES. HIGH WINDS MAY ALSO 
  POSE A THREAT TO SMALL CRAFT UNDERWAY OR AT THEIR MOORINGS AS 
  WELL AS AIRCRAFT TIED DOWN OUTDOORS. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES 
  SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING ON LOCAL 
  ROADWAYS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

308 
WWAK77 PAJK 121200
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
300 AM AKST THU NOV 12 2015

AKZ027-121300-
/O.EXP.PAJK.HW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-151112T1200Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
300 AM AKST THU NOV 12 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM AKST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE HIGH WINDS TO THE AREA IS PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES BY THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WIND RECORDED
WITH THIS FRONT SO FAR IS 64 MPH AT HYDABURG.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ028-121500-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-151112T1500Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
300 AM AKST THU NOV 12 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY CAUSE TREES AND BRANCHES TO FALL ONTO 
  ROADWAYS...STRUCTURES...AND POWER LINES. HIGH WINDS MAY ALSO 
  POSE A THREAT TO SMALL CRAFT UNDERWAY OR AT THEIR MOORINGS AS 
  WELL AS AIRCRAFT TIED DOWN OUTDOORS. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES 
  SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING ON LOCAL 
  ROADWAYS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

895 
WWAK77 PAJK 121457
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
557 AM AKST THU NOV 12 2015

AKZ028-121600-
/O.EXP.PAJK.HW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-151112T1500Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
557 AM AKST THU NOV 12 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE HIGH WINDS IS
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. THE PEAK WIND REPORTED AT KETCHIKAN WAS
55 MPH...WITH 57 MPH REPORTED AT ANNETTE ISLAND.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
349 PM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY RAIN (AND SNOW TO
HYDER) THIS MORNING MOVED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AROUND MIDDAY.
THE HYDER AREA ENDED UP GETTING COLD ENOUGH LAST NIGHT (VIA SNOW
MELT COOLING) THAT THE HEAVY PRECIP TURNED INTO 13 INCHES OF SNOW
BY 11 AM THIS MORNING. WITH A COOL AIR MASS COMING IN FROM THE
GULF, PRECIP HAS CHANGED TO CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOWING UP ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS THE COOL AIR
MASS OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS CREATES A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN NATURE. PLUS WITH HOW
UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE IS (CAPE VALUES 300 TO 500 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDEX VALUES AROUND -3) SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY WITH
SOME SMALL ICE PELLETS OR SMALL HAIL AND SOME LIGHTNING. THESE
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE FOR THE GULF AND OUTER COAST AREAS.
THE SHOWERS DIMINISH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA.

ELSEWHERE THE COOL AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT 850 MB TEMPS
DROP INTO THE -4 TO -7 C RANGE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
THAT THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS COULD SEE SOME OF THESE RAIN
SHOWERS MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW.
HAINES AND SKAGWAY AREAS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW
TONIGHT WITH GUSTAVUS, JUNEAU, AND YAKUTAT MAYBE SEEING A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW LATE TONIGHT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AS FOR WIND, WESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT IN THE GULF DUE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN WHAT IS
LEFT OF LAST NIGHT'S FRONT AND THE WEAK RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF. OUTER COASTAL AREAS FROM CAPE FAIRWEATHER SOUTHWARD WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME OF THOSE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL. GUSTS
MAY REACH 30 MPH IN SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS. WINDS IN THE GULF
DIMINISH TOMORROW MORNING BUT THEN PICK RIGHT BACK UP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, THIS TIME FROM THE S AS THEN NEXT FRONT STARTS TO
APPROACH. THE OFFSHORE ZONE WILL START TO SEE GALE FORCE WINDS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY USED THE
GFS FOR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN...DANGEROUS SEAS...AND SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ALONG THE
KLONDIKE AND HAINES HIGHWAYS.

STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND OVER THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE
PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF ON THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE NORTHEAST GULF AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER THE WEEKEND MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS
TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LEADING TO VERY LOW FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY OVER THE GULF WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO STORM FORCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 30
TO 40 FEET THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WESTERLY AND REACH GALE TO STORM FORCE ON THURSDAY. STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER THE PANHANDLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. EXPECT TO SEE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 40
MPH ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE. WHILE WE DO EXPECT
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DO NOT
FORSEE ANY FLOODING ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM. STRONG WESTERLIES
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. SO EXPECT WINDS
TO REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY.

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE
HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS. THINK ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL GET INTO
THE AREA TO PRODUCE AROUND 6-8 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER AS
MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ONE ISSUE WITH GENERATING WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL BE THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM IS SUCH A QUICK
MOVER. SHIFT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
AREAS AT SEA LEVEL NEAR HAINES AND SKAGWAY. THINK ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR MAY REMAIN IN THE AREA COMBINED WITH LIGHT FLOW AS A
PARALLEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RESIDES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS. HOWEVER...HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE OTHER LOCATION OF CONCERN IS HYDER WHERE A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS A POTENTIAL TO LEAD TO
ACCUMULATING SNOW. HAVE INCLUDED A MIX IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
INCREASE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FROM LATER THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CAA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WILL INCREASE SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. GFS REMAINS THE COLDEST MODEL AND INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL BY LATE WEEKEND. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE WARMER OF THE TWO. THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

USED THE 12Z GFS FOR UPDATES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WERE MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO LOCAL EFFECT EDITS.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE ON A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-022-033-034-036-041>043-051.

&&

EAL/TPS

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