Storm Warning 45, NWS Juneau, AK

755 
FZAK52 PAJK 092323
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-101400-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE N BUT WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE NEAR CAPE FAIRWEATHER FRI EVENING. A STRONG LOW WILL
MOVE NE INTO THE EASTERN GULF SUN. 

$$

PKZ041-101400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...S GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-101400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
13 FT. S SWELL.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. S
SWELL. 
.SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-101400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
20 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
S SWELL.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. S
SWELL. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-101400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. S SWELL LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-101400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
10 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
456 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE NRN GULF AND SE AK WILL
DRIFT N AND WEAKEN. A POWERFUL STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND MOVE N INTO THE ERN GULF FRI. THIS STORM WILL CONTAIN
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE OHO. MODELS STILL WERE HANDING THE
STORM SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY AS FAR AS TRACK AND INTENSITY GO...SO
BASICALLY STAYED WITH CURRENT TRACK/STRENGTH WE WERE SHOWING
PREVIOUSLY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND RAINFALL. RAINFALL WILL
BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FRI AS THE POWERFUL STORM
TAKES SHAPE AND HEADS NWD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION WILL
SHIFT TO FAVOR MORE NELY WINDS LATER TONIGHT...BUT AS THE MAIN LOW
MOVES INTO THE GULF FRI MORNING...THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT TO FAVOR
MORE S-SE WINDS. ALSO...THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND THE LOW WILL BE
ON ITS E-S SIDE...SO EXPECT THE HIGHEST WINDS TO OCCUR WHEN ANY
GIVEN AREA IS ON THAT SIDE OF THE LOW. DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES 27 AND 28 UNTIL 15Z FRI...AND HELD OFF
START IN ZONES 23 AND 26 UNTIL 21Z FRI. THESE ARE THE TIMES THE
GRADIENT ORIENTATION WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS IN THOSE AREAS. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
REACH THE N-CENTRAL AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH HIGH WIND LEVELS AT THIS TIME. THE PAEL AREA WILL START
WITH STRONG WINDS SOONER THOUGH AS THE ELY FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY
STRONG THERE EARLIER IN THE MORNING. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE SRN OUTER COAST AND ADJACENT MARINE
WATERS...WITH UP TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP MUCH TONIGHT WITH WARMER
AIR ALOFT STREAMING IN FROM THE S TONIGHT AND FRI. FRI STILL LOOKS
TO BE VERY MILD DUE TO THE TROPICAL ORIGINS OF THE SYSTEM COMING
IN...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED DESPITE THE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...THE STORM ABOVE APPEARS TO MAKE LANDFALL A FEW MILES
NORTH OF CAPE SPENCER FRIDAY EVENING. THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. BUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PLETHORA OF EITHER
HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE COAST AND
STRONG WINDS HEADLINED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
PANHANDLE...WE ADDED GLACIER BAY/GUSTAVUS FOR STRONG WIND FRIDAY
EVENING AND EXTENDED THE STRONG WINDS FOR HOONAH/ANGOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING AND JUNEAU THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

A WEAKER WAVE BEHIND THE STORM CONTAINING THE REMNANTS OF OHO WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE/DIXON ENTRANCE AREA FRIDAY ALONG
A STALLED BOUNDARY. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT AND WAVE ON
SATURDAY WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT APPROACH THE BUCKETS
FALLING WITH THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. TOTALS OVER THE
SOUTH SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES. MEANWHILE TO THE
NORTH...AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW A BREAK IN
THE RAINFALL. THIS BREAK COULD BE KEY IN KEEPING POTENTIAL HYDRO
ISSUES FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY IN CHECK.

THE BIG CHANGE WAS RAISING WIND SPEEDS FOR A STORM ON SUNDAY THAT
REFUSES TO BE UPSTAGED BY A FRIDAY STORM ADORNED WITH A NAME.
WINDS AT 925 MB ARE AGAIN APPROACHING 80 KT IN SOME OF THE
MODELS...NOTABLY THE ECMWF. ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT...THIS STORM
LOOKS TO TRACK FARTHER OFFSHORE. BUT ANOTHER HIGH WIND WATCH COULD
BE PLACED FOR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. WHILE THESE VALUES ARE ALL
IMPRESSIVE...WE HAVE MERELY NUDGED MARINE WINDS TO GALE WITH NO
STORM FORCE APPEARING AT THIS TIME. BUT IF MODELS KEEP SUPPORTING
STRENGTH, LOOK FOR THESE WINDS AT THIS ISSUANCE TIME ON FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE THIS STORM ALSO LOOKS TO GERMINATE FROM A DEEP
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC AND CARRY A GOOD
SWATH OF MOISTURE SUCH THAT HEAVY RAIN SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SPREAD
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PANHANDLE FOR SUNDAY.

THE EXTENDED REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNTOUCHED WITH A PROGRESSIVE
ONSHORE PATTERN KEEPING THINGS WET. NO REAL SIGN OF COLD AIR TO
LOWER SNOW LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TRENDS RISING FOR SUCH A VOLATILE
PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. AVERAGE FOR NEXT WEEK. USED ECMWF/NAM FOR
UPDATES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WIDE ENSEMBLE OF GEM, NAM, GFS, AND
ECWMF FOR SATURDAY TO HANDLE THE WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THEN ECWMF/GFS/GEM THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WPC LEADING OFF
EXTENDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL IS GOING TO BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. VERY HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES AND
STRONG MOISTURE FLUX WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
FRI. IN MOST AREAS...GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL OCCUR
THRU FRI. RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 5 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...WITH THE
MOST LIKELY SPOTS BEING ALONG S FACING SLOPES OVER THE SRN AREA.
DUE TO A LONG STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER DURING THE PAST
WEEK...RIVER LEVELS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE EXCEPT OVER THE FAR S
WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FELL TODAY. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
FLOODING AT THIS POINT THRU FRI...BUT SOME STREAMS COULD GET CLOSE
TO BANKFULL.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ023-026.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     AKZ021-024.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     AKZ020.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR PKZ036-041.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-042-043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-021-031-032-034.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-051>053.

&&

RWT/JWA

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