Alert archive / Alaska / Storm Warnings in 2015

Storm Warning 43, NWS Juneau, AK

October 8, 2015

NWS Juneau, AK issued this storm warning at Oct 8, 2015, 4:00 PM AKDT. It was in force for 24 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 8, 2015, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)
Expired
Oct 9, 2015, 4:00 PM AKDT
In force
24 hr
Issued by
NWS Juneau, AK

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

197 
FZAK52 PAJK 082324
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-091400-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE FAR SW GULF THROUGH SAT. A
HURRICANE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE N ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF DURING
FRI...THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES ONSHORE N OF CAPE SPENCER
FRI EVENING. 

$$

PKZ041-091400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015 

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 70 KT
LATE. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 65 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 90 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 27 FT BY LATE MORNING. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS
19 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-091400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015 

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING
TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 55 KT BECOMING S 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
80 KT. SEAS 20 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS
20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-091400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015 

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO
10 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
14 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W GALE TO 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT LATE. SEAS
20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-091400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 25 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-091400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO
12 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$
2 follow-up statements
216 
FZAK52 PAJK 091157
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-100100-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A HURRICANE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE N ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
FRI...THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES ONSHORE N OF CAPE SPENCER
FRI EVENING. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
PANHANDLE LATE FRI INTO SAT. 

$$

PKZ041-100100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOMING SW 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEAS 17 FT
BUILDING TO 25 FT IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. S SWELL.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-100100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING
TO 24 FT IN THE LATE MORNING. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-100100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-100100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. S SWELL. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-100100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE IN THE MORNING. SEAS 11 FT. S
SWELL.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$
755 
FZAK52 PAJK 092323
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-101400-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE N BUT WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE NEAR CAPE FAIRWEATHER FRI EVENING. A STRONG LOW WILL
MOVE NE INTO THE EASTERN GULF SUN. 

$$

PKZ041-101400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...S GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-101400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
13 FT. S SWELL.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. S
SWELL. 
.SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-101400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
20 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
S SWELL.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. S
SWELL. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-101400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. S SWELL LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-101400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
10 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Oct 8, 6:00 AM AKDT, 10 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 8, 6:00 AM AKDT, 10 hours before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
600 AM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE CONTINUES TO OCCLUDE INVOF THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF THU MORNING...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCING ESE
TOWARD THE SCNTRL/SERN GULF...AND THEN EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE
NERN PAC. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER IMPULSE AND
BAROCLINIC LEAF SIGNATURE MOVING NNE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REACH CNTRL COASTAL AREAS BY 00Z FRI...AND
THEN PROGRESS N OUT OF THE REGION DURING THU NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL SLYS
WILL SUBSEQUENTLY STRENGTHEN BY LATE MORNING OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE/ADJACENT MARINE ZONES AS THE IMPULSE APPROACHES...WITH
GALES EXPECTED FOR CLARENCE STRAIT...AND STRONG WINDS /GUSTS TO
40 KT/ POSSIBLE FROM HYDABURG TO KETCHIKAN. IN
ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FLUX AND PW VALUES NEAR 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO WILL INCREASE FROM THE SRN TO
CNTRL PANHANDLE...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT...WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE
PANHANDLE. WINDS AND RAINFALL RATES WILL THEN DECREASE BY THU
EVENING AFTER THE UPPER WAVE PASSES.

MEANWHILE...HURRICANE OHO WILL GO THROUGH EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION /REFER TO LATEST CNTRL PAC HURRICANE CENTER DISC/ AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE ACROSS THE NERN PAC THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE LOW CENTER THEN FORECAST TO RECURVE
TO THE N BETWEEN 06-12Z FRI. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...OHO WILL
ENCOUNTER PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND ALSO
BECOME COLLOCATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A VIGOROUS 160+ KT UPPER
JET STREAK. THIS WILL HERALD THE BEGINNING STAGES OF RAPID
REINTENSIFICATION...WITH ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING TO AROUND 970 MB BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD /WITH FURTHER DEEPENING YET TO COME THEREAFTER/. THIS
WILL YIELD A VERY INTENSE PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT...RESULTING IN
A 70+ KT 925 MB JET SPREADING NW FROM HECATE STRAIT ACROSS DIXON
ENTRANCE BY 12Z FRI. AS A RESULT...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE INITIALLY
EXPECTED OVER CLARENCE STRAIT AND OUTSIDE MARINE ZONE 41 LATE
TONIGHT...AND HIGH WINDS WITH GUSTS AOA 60 MPH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FROM HYDABURG TO METLAKATLA. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY
FASTER WITH THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE CYCLONE...THUS SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE ONSET OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.

.LONG TERM...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE OHO
WILL BE AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ROBUST WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS TO
NEAR CAPE DECISION AND UP CLARENCE STRAIT. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY SO THE ONSET OF THESE WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING MAY
SEEM SUDDEN. THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO INCREASE
WIND SPEEDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...PLACING THE PEAK WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND TO SOUTHERN BARANOF
ISLAND FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW...AND THE
TROPICAL CONNECTION AND WARM AIR PROCESSES WILL CAUSE IT TO BE
HEAVY WITH AROUND 2-4 INCHES FALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS IN 24
HRS. THE DRY WEEK WE JUST HAD HAS ALLOWED RIVERS TO FALL...BUT
RISK OF MUDSLIDES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE EXTREME/UNUSUAL
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SE TO SW FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS
AND START TO EASE. HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL WEAKEN IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE THE ELFIN COVE ZONE IN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING...BUT DO HAVE HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS OUT OF CROSS
SOUND IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE LOW HOLDS ITS STRENGTH UP TO THAT
POINT ZONE 22 MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. AS OF THIS FORECAST MOST THE
INNER ZONES WILL REQUIRE STRONG WIND HEADLINES AS WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40MPH ARE EXPECTED. THOSE WILL INITIALLY BE OUT OF THE
NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNEL (LYNN CANAL) THEN FLIP
TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE SWLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW. ON SUNDAY
ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH TO OHO. THIS WILL
LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO AT
LEAST GALE FORCE FOR THE OUTSIDE WATERS. THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO
BE ACTIVE THEREAFTER...COULD BE A SHORT BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (WED) BUT THAT IS A WHOLE WEEK
AWAY.

USED MAINLY THE GFS TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE LOW ON FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR A STRONG AND DAMAGING
EVENT OVER THE OUTER COAST AND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND...BUT
SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR AREAS FURTHER EAST/INLAND AWAY FROM THE LOW
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED TO 3-6 MILES
/LOCALLY LOWER WITH HEAVIEST RAIN/ WILL OCCUR OVER THE SRN/CNTRL
PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WIND SHEAR FROM
25-45 KT IN THE SURFACE TO 2000 FT LAYER WILL ALSO EXIST.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SPREAD N ACROSS THE SRN
PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY...WITH VERY HAZARDOUS GUSTS AND SHEAR
PROBABLE FROM KETCHIKAN/HYDABURG N TO SITKA AND PETERSBURG.

&&

.MARINE...A HURRICANE FORCE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE N ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF ON FRIDAY. GUSTS FROM 60-90 KT WILL OCCUR AS A
RESULT...DEVELOPING FIRST OVER CLARENCE STRAIT AND MARINE ZONE 41
LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN SPREADING N TO MARINE ZONES 42 AND
43 BY FRI AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE CNTRL/NRN INSIDE WATERS.
SEAS FROM 7-13 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE INSIDE WATERS...AND UP TO
28 FT OVER THE SRN OUTSIDE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN AND
CNTRL PANHANDLE THROUGH THU AFTERNOON RESULTING IN HEAVY
RAINFALL. A HURRICANE FORCE LOW WILL THEN MOVE N ACROSS THE REGION
ON FRI...YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. AREA
STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO RISE AS A
RESULT...BUT HYDROLOGICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FLOODING IS NOT
PROBABLE ATTM.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ026.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ027.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-031-032-034-035-043-
     051>053.

&&

GARNER/FERRIN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 8, 11:04 AM AKDT, 4 hours 56 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1104 AM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

AKZ018>029-091400-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...
ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...ANGOON...JUNEAU...
PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA...HYDER
1104 AM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

...HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY...

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 6
INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LOCALIZED AREAS AND AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL PRODUCE RAPID RIVER RISES ON SMALL STREAMS
AND RIVERS BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO THREAT OF FLOODING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL
WEATHER NEWS SOURCE FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 6 AM AKDT FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 8, 4:00 PM AKDTGale WarningAJK36 hr
Oct 8, 4:00 PM AKDTHurricane Force Wind WarningAJK12 hr
Oct 8, 4:00 PM AKDTHurricane Force Wind WarningAJK23 hr
Oct 8, 4:00 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAJK23 hr
Oct 8, 4:00 PM AKDTStorm WarningAJK28 hr
Oct 8, 4:00 PM AKDTStorm WarningAJK23 hr
Oct 9, 4:00 AM AKDTStorm WarningAJK12 hr
Oct 9, 3:01 PM AKDTGale WarningAJK13 hr

Nearby

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2015Every storm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.