Storm Warning 39, NWS Juneau, AK

623 
FZAK67 PAJK 091152
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-100100-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A HURRICANE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE N ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
FRI...THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES ONSHORE N OF CAPE SPENCER
FRI EVENING. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
PANHANDLE LATE FRI INTO SAT. 

$$

PKZ310-100100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W OF 140W...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. E OF 140W...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING N 50 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE LATE
MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

488 
FZAK67 PAJK 092324
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-101400-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE N BUT WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE NEAR CAPE FAIRWEATHER FRI EVENING. A STRONG LOW WILL
MOVE NE INTO THE EASTERN GULF SUN. 

$$

PKZ310-101400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015 

...STORM WARNING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF 140W...NW WIND 55 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT BY LATE
EVENING. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
W OF 140W...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
12 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

064 
FZAK67 PAJK 100342 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
742 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-102145-
742 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE N BUT WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE NEAR CAPE FAIRWEATHER FRI EVENING. A STRONG LOW WILL
MOVE NE INTO THE EASTERN GULF SUN. 

$$

PKZ310-102145-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
742 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
600 AM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE CONTINUES TO OCCLUDE INVOF THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF THU MORNING...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCING ESE
TOWARD THE SCNTRL/SERN GULF...AND THEN EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE
NERN PAC. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER IMPULSE AND
BAROCLINIC LEAF SIGNATURE MOVING NNE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REACH CNTRL COASTAL AREAS BY 00Z FRI...AND
THEN PROGRESS N OUT OF THE REGION DURING THU NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL SLYS
WILL SUBSEQUENTLY STRENGTHEN BY LATE MORNING OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE/ADJACENT MARINE ZONES AS THE IMPULSE APPROACHES...WITH
GALES EXPECTED FOR CLARENCE STRAIT...AND STRONG WINDS /GUSTS TO
40 KT/ POSSIBLE FROM HYDABURG TO KETCHIKAN. IN
ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FLUX AND PW VALUES NEAR 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO WILL INCREASE FROM THE SRN TO
CNTRL PANHANDLE...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT...WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE
PANHANDLE. WINDS AND RAINFALL RATES WILL THEN DECREASE BY THU
EVENING AFTER THE UPPER WAVE PASSES.

MEANWHILE...HURRICANE OHO WILL GO THROUGH EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION /REFER TO LATEST CNTRL PAC HURRICANE CENTER DISC/ AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE ACROSS THE NERN PAC THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE LOW CENTER THEN FORECAST TO RECURVE
TO THE N BETWEEN 06-12Z FRI. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...OHO WILL
ENCOUNTER PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND ALSO
BECOME COLLOCATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A VIGOROUS 160+ KT UPPER
JET STREAK. THIS WILL HERALD THE BEGINNING STAGES OF RAPID
REINTENSIFICATION...WITH ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING TO AROUND 970 MB BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD /WITH FURTHER DEEPENING YET TO COME THEREAFTER/. THIS
WILL YIELD A VERY INTENSE PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT...RESULTING IN
A 70+ KT 925 MB JET SPREADING NW FROM HECATE STRAIT ACROSS DIXON
ENTRANCE BY 12Z FRI. AS A RESULT...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE INITIALLY
EXPECTED OVER CLARENCE STRAIT AND OUTSIDE MARINE ZONE 41 LATE
TONIGHT...AND HIGH WINDS WITH GUSTS AOA 60 MPH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FROM HYDABURG TO METLAKATLA. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY
FASTER WITH THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE CYCLONE...THUS SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE ONSET OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.

.LONG TERM...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE OHO
WILL BE AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ROBUST WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS TO
NEAR CAPE DECISION AND UP CLARENCE STRAIT. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY SO THE ONSET OF THESE WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING MAY
SEEM SUDDEN. THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO INCREASE
WIND SPEEDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...PLACING THE PEAK WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND TO SOUTHERN BARANOF
ISLAND FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW...AND THE
TROPICAL CONNECTION AND WARM AIR PROCESSES WILL CAUSE IT TO BE
HEAVY WITH AROUND 2-4 INCHES FALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS IN 24
HRS. THE DRY WEEK WE JUST HAD HAS ALLOWED RIVERS TO FALL...BUT
RISK OF MUDSLIDES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE EXTREME/UNUSUAL
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SE TO SW FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS
AND START TO EASE. HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL WEAKEN IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE THE ELFIN COVE ZONE IN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING...BUT DO HAVE HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS OUT OF CROSS
SOUND IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE LOW HOLDS ITS STRENGTH UP TO THAT
POINT ZONE 22 MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. AS OF THIS FORECAST MOST THE
INNER ZONES WILL REQUIRE STRONG WIND HEADLINES AS WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40MPH ARE EXPECTED. THOSE WILL INITIALLY BE OUT OF THE
NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNEL (LYNN CANAL) THEN FLIP
TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE SWLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW. ON SUNDAY
ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH TO OHO. THIS WILL
LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO AT
LEAST GALE FORCE FOR THE OUTSIDE WATERS. THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO
BE ACTIVE THEREAFTER...COULD BE A SHORT BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (WED) BUT THAT IS A WHOLE WEEK
AWAY.

USED MAINLY THE GFS TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE LOW ON FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR A STRONG AND DAMAGING
EVENT OVER THE OUTER COAST AND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND...BUT
SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR AREAS FURTHER EAST/INLAND AWAY FROM THE LOW
CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED TO 3-6 MILES
/LOCALLY LOWER WITH HEAVIEST RAIN/ WILL OCCUR OVER THE SRN/CNTRL
PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WIND SHEAR FROM
25-45 KT IN THE SURFACE TO 2000 FT LAYER WILL ALSO EXIST.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SPREAD N ACROSS THE SRN
PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY...WITH VERY HAZARDOUS GUSTS AND SHEAR
PROBABLE FROM KETCHIKAN/HYDABURG N TO SITKA AND PETERSBURG.

&&

.MARINE...A HURRICANE FORCE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE N ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF ON FRIDAY. GUSTS FROM 60-90 KT WILL OCCUR AS A
RESULT...DEVELOPING FIRST OVER CLARENCE STRAIT AND MARINE ZONE 41
LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN SPREADING N TO MARINE ZONES 42 AND
43 BY FRI AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE CNTRL/NRN INSIDE WATERS.
SEAS FROM 7-13 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE INSIDE WATERS...AND UP TO
28 FT OVER THE SRN OUTSIDE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN AND
CNTRL PANHANDLE THROUGH THU AFTERNOON RESULTING IN HEAVY
RAINFALL. A HURRICANE FORCE LOW WILL THEN MOVE N ACROSS THE REGION
ON FRI...YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. AREA
STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO RISE AS A
RESULT...BUT HYDROLOGICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FLOODING IS NOT
PROBABLE ATTM.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ026.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ027.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-031-032-034-035-043-
     051>053.

&&

GARNER/FERRIN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1104 AM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

AKZ018>029-091400-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...
ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...ANGOON...JUNEAU...
PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA...HYDER
1104 AM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

...HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY...

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 6
INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LOCALIZED AREAS AND AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL PRODUCE RAPID RIVER RISES ON SMALL STREAMS
AND RIVERS BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO THREAT OF FLOODING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL
WEATHER NEWS SOURCE FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 6 AM AKDT FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.