Storm Warning 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

740 
FZAK52 PAFG 021146
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
346 AM AKDT FRI OCT 2 2015

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-030300-
346 AM AKDT FRI OCT 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 982 MB LOW 200 NM WEST OF GAMBELL WILL DRIFT WEST AND DISSIPATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING FROM POINT HOPE...TO EAST
OF KOTZEBUE SOUND...TO SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE
EAST AND WEAKEN. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT ON SUNDAY.

$$

PKZ200-030300-
NORTON SOUND-
346 AM AKDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-030300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
346 AM AKDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING
TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-030300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
346 AM AKDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-030300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
346 AM AKDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 35 KT DECREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING
TO 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

EWP/DA OCT 15

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
624 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL OFF OF THE 00Z
ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE IN THE SHORT TERM AND
CONSIDERING FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT INTO THE MID AND LONG TERM.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL ALASKA AND CONTRIBUTED TO RECORD SNOWFALL YESTERDAY IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE ALCAN BORDER AND CONTINUES TO LIFTING NORTH
AND EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON THIS
EVENING. RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AHEAD OF
NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GULF AF
ANADYR. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY ANCHORING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY
EVENING. AT 850 MB THE ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM HAS BEEN DRIVEN DEEP
INTO THE THE GULF OF ALASKA BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH CURRENT 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 10 OVER FAIRBANKS.
THE ZERO ISOTHERM MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OVER THE LOWER YK DELTA
TODAY AND WILL BE LOCATED ALONG A KODIAK TO MCGRATH TO NEAR
GALENA FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TO NEAR
FAIRBANKS BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER
THE GULF OF ANADYR. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AGAIN STREAM
INTO THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ON THE SURFACE A 980 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TO AROUND 975 MB AND WILL BE LOCATED 250 M
SOUTHWEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TO AROUND 970 MB AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
ANADYR FRIDAY MORNING. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT. HIGH WIND WARNINGS
ISSUED FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA FOR NOME. STRONG WIND HEADLINES ISSUED
FOR ZONES FROM POINT HOPE TO CAPE ROMANZOF. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES
ISSUED FOR ZONES 214...212...211...213 AND 207 FOR INBOUND BERING
SEA STORM AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NORTH SLOPE WEST OF BARROW AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
AND HIGH SURF NOTED ON BARROW ICE CAM AND CONFIRMED BY WEATHER
SERVICE EMPLOYEE OBSERVATIONS. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ON WESTERN
NORTH SLOPE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH. 4
TO 5 FOOT STORM SURGE FORECAST FOR THE BERING STRAIT WEST OF NOME
AND FOR SOUTH SHORES OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND 3 TO 4 FOOT STORM
SURGE EXPECTED FOR EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND LOWER YK DELTA COAST.
QUICK MOVING STORM WILL LIMIT DURATION OF STRONGEST WINDS AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL LIMIT FETCH ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF NORTON SOUND AND WILL LIMIT COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL IN
AND NEAR NOME. AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THE
LOWER YK DELTA COAST WILL BE UNDER THE GUN WITH 3 TO 4 FOOT SURGE
VALUES. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOR MEETING
COASTAL FLOOD CRITERIA ALONG HE LOWER YK DELTA COAST LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
BERING SEA AND INTO THE COLDER INTERIOR. WEST COAST ZONES PROGGED
FOR ONE HALF TO NEARLY ONE INCH OF LIQUID...FALLING AS RAIN.
PRECIPITATION DRIES OUT TO LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR HOWEVER AND AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AS THE FRONT STRETCHES AND
WEAKENS. PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY START OFF AS SNOW
IN COLDER AIRMASS AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM
RAPIDLY ALOFT. MODELS HAVE PERFORMED POORLY OF LATE ON SNOW LEVELS
AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW IN EASTERN HALF OF ZONE 216...ZONE
217...NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 221...ZONE 219 AND 218 BEFORE
PRECIP EITHER CHANGES OVER TO RAIN OR DIMINISHES. GENERALLY 1 TO 4
INCHES PROGGED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...HOWEVER SLIGHT CHANGE
IN FORECASTED SOUNDINGS COULD REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE STORM SURGE VALUES OF
BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET FOR THE BERING STRAIT AND THE SOUTHERN SHORE
OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND 4 FEET SURGE VALUES ALONG THE NORTH
SHORES OF NORTON SOUND. 3 TO 4 FOOT SURGE VALUES ARE PROGGED FOR
EASTERN NORTON SOUND COAST AND AROUND 3 FOOT STORM SURGE VALUES
FOR THE LOWER YK DELTA COAST. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR LOWER
YK DELTA COAST AS WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND GOLOVIN AND
BREVIG MISSION WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOWER STORM SURGE
CRITERIA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ207-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-
AKZ214.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ213.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

CCC OCT 15