Gale Warning 93, NWS Fairbanks, AK

240 
FZAK52 PAFG 012237
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
237 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-021200-
237 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 974 MB LOW SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL WILL MOVE TO WEST OF GAMBELL AND
WEAKEN TO 982 MB BY 4AM FRI...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
WEAKEN TO 1008 MB BY 4PM SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND NORTON SOUND
TONIGHT...THEN OVER THE SOUTH CHUKCHI SEA...KOTZEBUE SOUND EARLY
FRIDAY WHILE WEAKENING. 

$$

PKZ200-021200-
NORTON SOUND-
237 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 50 KT BECOMING S 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG...
RAIN.
.FRI...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-021200-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
237 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 55 KT DECREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-021200-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
237 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-021200-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
237 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

JL/BJB OCT 15

740 
FZAK52 PAFG 021146
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
346 AM AKDT FRI OCT 2 2015

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-030300-
346 AM AKDT FRI OCT 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 982 MB LOW 200 NM WEST OF GAMBELL WILL DRIFT WEST AND DISSIPATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING FROM POINT HOPE...TO EAST
OF KOTZEBUE SOUND...TO SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE
EAST AND WEAKEN. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT ON SUNDAY.

$$

PKZ200-030300-
NORTON SOUND-
346 AM AKDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-030300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
346 AM AKDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING
TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-030300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
346 AM AKDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-030300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
346 AM AKDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 35 KT DECREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING
TO 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

EWP/DA OCT 15

458 
FZAK52 PAFG 022248
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
248 PM AKDT FRI OCT 2 2015

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-031300-
248 PM AKDT FRI OCT 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 992 MB LOW OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE NORTHWEST INLAND
FRI NIGHT AND DISSIPATE SAT. A WEAK WEATHER FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE EAST TO LIE FROM THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND TO SAINT PAUL ISLAND SUNDAY
MORNING.

$$

PKZ200-031300-
NORTON SOUND-
248 PM AKDT FRI OCT 2 2015

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG...RAIN.  
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.  
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.  
.SUN...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG...RAIN.  
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.  
.MON...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.   
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.   
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.   
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-031300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
248 PM AKDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND WATERS. SEAS 10 FT. FOG...RAIN.  
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.   
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.  
.SUN...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG.  
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.   
.MON...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.  
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.   
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.   
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-031300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
248 PM AKDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. FOG... RAIN.  
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.   
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.  
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG...RAIN.  
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.  
.MON...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.   
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.   
.TUE...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.   
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-031300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
248 PM AKDT FRI OCT 2 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.   
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.  
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.  
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.  
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.   
.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.   
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.   
.TUE...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.   
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

DJH/JL OCT 15

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
246 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...AGAIN TODAY THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THAN
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. STILL A BIT SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE GUIDANCE AS
WE GET PAST 36 HOURS OR SO. INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE MAJOR
FEATURE POSITIONS AT 18Z. A BLEND FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS THEN
LEAN ON A CONCENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF FAIRBANKS AND
WILL BE EAST OF THE ALCAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE
SWINGING AROUND THE LOW LIES FROM THE LOW 600 NM NORTH OF
DEADHORSE TO AROUND GALENA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SWING EAST OVER
THE ALCAN LATE TONIGHT. THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA LIES FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER NIKOLSKI TO NORTHERN KAMCHATKA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE EAST TO LIE FROM OVER CHIGNIK AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA NORTH TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA THEN NORTHWEST OVER
THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE THE BASE OF THE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ALCAN WITH WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING
WEST OVER THE BROOKS RANGE. A WEAKER BRANCH OF THE RIDGE WILL
SWEEP NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WAVE MOVING TO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY EVENING. AT 850
HPA...THE ZERO ISOTHERM HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE STATE BUT WILL
START MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE MOVING OVER THE LOWER
YUKON DELTA BY THURSDAY MORNING...IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO LIE
OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA SOUTHWEST OF RUBY AND SOUTH OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA.

SURFACE...988 MB LOW THAT WAS NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS
MORNING IS FILLING AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST YUKON
TERRITORY THIS EVENING AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A LOW OVER BANKS
ISLAND. SURFACE RIDGE IS MOVING EAST OVER NORTON SOUND THIS
EVENING AND BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE. NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE RIDGE CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...A 1033 MB CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN THURSDAY MORNING...AND INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY
FRIDAY MORNING. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
BERING SEA AROUND A 980 MB LOW THAT MOVES TO THE GULF OF ANADYR
BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM THE
BERING STRAIT TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING THEN NORTH
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
TO THE COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR BY
AFTERNOON.

ARCTIC COAST...NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS SO WILL KEEP THE HIGH SURF
OUT FOR ZONES 201 AND 202. FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
SPREAD SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE IN
AND OUT OVER THE AREA. INLAND AREAS PRETTY QUIET...BUT LOOK FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF
AROUND 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. COOLING TREND CONTINUES...BUT NOT REAL
COLD.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...QUIET FOR NOW...SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT
A LOT OF PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR AREAS. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS MOVING
INTO THE BERING SEA AND WILL SPREAD STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE
COAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH SURF DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
AREAS. WILL ISSUE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 211 212 213 AND
214 STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY
WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. RAIN
WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE MIDDLE YUKON RIVER BY LATE THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INLAND FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 0.75 WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND NORTON SOUND AND THE LOWER YUKON DELTA.
TEMPERATURES COOLER TONIGHT...THEN WARMING AS WARM AIR IS PULLED
NORTH BY THE LOW.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SNOW OVER THE ALCAN ENDING THIS
EVENING WITH SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH...BUT SOME AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS
TO AROUND 30 MPH THROUGH THE EVENING. A SHORT RESPITE FROM THE
WEATHER AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY...BUT ON THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SPREADING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN REAL GOOD LATELY...SO IT WILL BE A BIT TRICKY THIS FAR
OUT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE IT GO FROM SNOW TO RAIN TO
SNOW FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL WAIT TIL THE
NEXT MODEL RUN TO ASSES WHETHER OR NOT THE MODELS ARE FINALLY
CATCHING UP WITH REALITY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.

&&

SDB SEP 15