Gale Warning 94, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
246 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...AGAIN TODAY THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THAN
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. STILL A BIT SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE GUIDANCE AS
WE GET PAST 36 HOURS OR SO. INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE MAJOR
FEATURE POSITIONS AT 18Z. A BLEND FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS THEN
LEAN ON A CONCENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF FAIRBANKS AND
WILL BE EAST OF THE ALCAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE
SWINGING AROUND THE LOW LIES FROM THE LOW 600 NM NORTH OF
DEADHORSE TO AROUND GALENA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SWING EAST OVER
THE ALCAN LATE TONIGHT. THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA LIES FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER NIKOLSKI TO NORTHERN KAMCHATKA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE EAST TO LIE FROM OVER CHIGNIK AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA NORTH TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA THEN NORTHWEST OVER
THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE THE BASE OF THE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ALCAN WITH WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING
WEST OVER THE BROOKS RANGE. A WEAKER BRANCH OF THE RIDGE WILL
SWEEP NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WAVE MOVING TO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY EVENING. AT 850
HPA...THE ZERO ISOTHERM HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE STATE BUT WILL
START MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE MOVING OVER THE LOWER
YUKON DELTA BY THURSDAY MORNING...IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO LIE
OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA SOUTHWEST OF RUBY AND SOUTH OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA.

SURFACE...988 MB LOW THAT WAS NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS
MORNING IS FILLING AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST YUKON
TERRITORY THIS EVENING AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A LOW OVER BANKS
ISLAND. SURFACE RIDGE IS MOVING EAST OVER NORTON SOUND THIS
EVENING AND BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE. NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE RIDGE CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...A 1033 MB CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN THURSDAY MORNING...AND INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY
FRIDAY MORNING. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
BERING SEA AROUND A 980 MB LOW THAT MOVES TO THE GULF OF ANADYR
BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM THE
BERING STRAIT TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING THEN NORTH
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
TO THE COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR BY
AFTERNOON.

ARCTIC COAST...NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS SO WILL KEEP THE HIGH SURF
OUT FOR ZONES 201 AND 202. FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
SPREAD SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE IN
AND OUT OVER THE AREA. INLAND AREAS PRETTY QUIET...BUT LOOK FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF
AROUND 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. COOLING TREND CONTINUES...BUT NOT REAL
COLD.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...QUIET FOR NOW...SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT
A LOT OF PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR AREAS. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS MOVING
INTO THE BERING SEA AND WILL SPREAD STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE
COAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH SURF DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
AREAS. WILL ISSUE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 211 212 213 AND
214 STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY
WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. RAIN
WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE MIDDLE YUKON RIVER BY LATE THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INLAND FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 0.75 WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND NORTON SOUND AND THE LOWER YUKON DELTA.
TEMPERATURES COOLER TONIGHT...THEN WARMING AS WARM AIR IS PULLED
NORTH BY THE LOW.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SNOW OVER THE ALCAN ENDING THIS
EVENING WITH SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH...BUT SOME AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS
TO AROUND 30 MPH THROUGH THE EVENING. A SHORT RESPITE FROM THE
WEATHER AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY...BUT ON THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SPREADING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN REAL GOOD LATELY...SO IT WILL BE A BIT TRICKY THIS FAR
OUT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE IT GO FROM SNOW TO RAIN TO
SNOW FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL WAIT TIL THE
NEXT MODEL RUN TO ASSES WHETHER OR NOT THE MODELS ARE FINALLY
CATCHING UP WITH REALITY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.

&&

SDB SEP 15