Storm Warning 199, NWS Anchorage, AK

234 
FZAK52 PAFC 191241
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
341 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-200145-
341 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 955 MB LOW 150 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL MOVES INLAND NEAR
NUNIVAK ISLAND SUN MORNING AT 975 MB. A FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND STALLS ON SUNDAY. A NEW LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THIS
FRONT 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA SUN MORNING AT 982 MB AND MOVES
TO 160 NM NORTH OF ADAK MON MORNING AT 971 MB.


$$

PKZ150-200145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
341 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ155-200145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
341 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-200145-
BRISTOL BAY-
341 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-200145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
341 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 32 FT EXCEPT 24 FT FROM PORT MOLLER E.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT W OF PORT MOLLER
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-200145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
341 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 36 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
30 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-200145-
UNALASKA BAY-
341 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-200145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
341 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. WIND BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON W
OF UNALASKA. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.MON...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-200145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
341 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 35 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 25
FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ174-200145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
341 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
30 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 32 FT.
.MON...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ175-200145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
341 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
31 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.MON...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ176-200145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
341 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
26 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 60 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT.
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ177-200145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
341 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24
FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. WIND BECOMING W 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON W OF
AMCHITKA PASS. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.MON...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ178-200145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
341 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16
FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT EXCEPT NW 25 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 12 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ179-200145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
341 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 36 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
28 FT SUBSIDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-200145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
341 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-200145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
341 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NW 35 KT W OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-200145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
341 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT....N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
549 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN PERSISTS THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND THE WESTERN BERING...AND AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE AKPEN. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF
OF AK WITH A VERY WEAK LOW NEAR THE KENAI PENINSULA AND A DEEP LOW
OVER THE WESTERN BERING. A RIDGE IS OVER SW AK AND THE AKPEN. A
STORM FORCE FRONT IS APPROACHING SW AK WITH SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. THE FRONT IS ALSO DRAPED ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WITH STORM
FORCE WINDS AND HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE LOW IN
THE SE GULF CONTINUES TO PULL SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE REGION. A
TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT NEAR KODIAK AND THE
BARREN ISLANDS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT HEADED TO THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST BY SAT NIGHT. WHILE THIS IS DEVELOPING...THE FRONT
ALONG THE SW AK COAST WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE BERING LOW WILL RACE ACROSS THE BERING AND MOVE
INLAND NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND SAT NIGHT. FILLING IN THE VOID BEHIND
THIS TRANSIT WILL BE THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND FRONT ENTERING
THE WESTERN BERING SAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AS A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A NEW POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE AREA
AND WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO
KODIAK BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAINLAND ALASKA BY THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONFIRMS THAT THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS STILL TAPPING INTO A RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
OCEAN. WHILE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE QUICKLY ACROSS
KODIAK ISLAND...IT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A TRIPLE POINT LOW AND
LINGER ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. CURRENTLY AN OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS
VALDEZ...BUT ENOUGH SNOW WILL FALL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR
BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THOMPSON PASS FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD DOWNSLOPING AND
LIMIT SNOW ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...MATANUSKA VALLEY AND THE
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A POTENT FRONT IS PUSHING ONSHORE THE MAINLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING...SPREADING SNOW FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS. GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS WITH THIS SNOW WILL BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO
THE COAST. WINDS WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT MOVES INLAND. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL LAST THE LONGEST
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SAME FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE BIT MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
THE GREATER BRISTOL BAY AREA...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE
IN THIS AREA AS WELL...MAINLY FROM KOLIGANEK NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL LINGER TONIGHT IN THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
AND FROM ILIAMNA NORTHWARD BEFORE THE FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE
CLOSER TO THE MAINLAND AND KEEP A SHOWERY REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. EXPECT MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BEYOND TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER THIS MORNING ARE THE HIGH WINDS FOR
SHEMYA AND ADAK. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA WILL DRIVE THESE WINDS IN ADDITION TO THE
DIRECTION BEING MORE FAVORABLE FOR CHANNELED WIND NEAR ADAK.
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN BERING. OTHERWISE A SHOWERY REGIME WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A NEW WEAKER FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN BERING
SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE BARREN ISLANDS WILL HAVE A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION TO THE NORTHERN GULF
BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY. AN UPSTREAM WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA MOVES INTO THE GULF BY MONDAY. THESE TWO
SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL PHASE INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
MIDWEEK. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COASTAL COMMUNITIES EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW AND RAIN UP THROUGH THE COOK INLET EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER
MATANUSKA VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION WILL MAINLY
HAVE OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

MEANWHILE THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL HAVE A STORM
FORCE LOW POSITIONED NORTH OF SAINT PAUL ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD WESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE LOWER BERING SEA
SPREADING INTO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. BY SUNDAY THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
CROSSING THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY REGION BEFORE ENTERING THE GULF.
WHILE A GALE FORCE LOW DROPS DOWN FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THIS
SYSTEM BECOMES ELONGATED ALONG THE ALEUTIANS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE CHAIN AND THE LOWER BERING SEA. THE MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE JET IS ZONAL
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND WILL MOVE THIS SYSTEM INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. BY WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW BEFORE ENTERING THE BERING SEA BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155
         HIGH WIND WARNING 187 191

MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
         STORM 173 175 176 177 178 179 185 411 412 413 414
         GALES 119 120 130 131 132 150 155 165 170 171 172
         174 180 181

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...PD