Gale Warning 845, NWS Anchorage, AK

202 
FZAK62 PAFC 192341
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
241 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-201515-
241 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 967 MB LOW AT 60N 168W WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR 60N 165W SUN
MORNING AT 977 MB. A 977 MB LOW NEAR 55N 170E WILL MOVE TO 
59N 167E SUN NIGHT AT 983 MB AND THEN DISSIPATE MON MORNING. 
A 990 MB LOW NEAR 47N 174E WILL MOVE TO 52N 180 AND RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN TO 968 MB SUN AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE 
TO 57N 173W AT 968 MB MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-201515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
241 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S TO W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...N TO W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 45 KT...BECOMING E 45 KT N OF 55N
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 29 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT...EXCEPT NE 45 KT N OF 55N. 
SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ412-201515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
241 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING SW 20 TO 35 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ413-201515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
241 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 TO 40 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING SW 40 TO 55 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 15 TO 26 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ414-201515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
241 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 TO 30 FT. 
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW TO SE 
WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 14 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT.

$$

689 
FZAK62 PAFC 201240
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
340 AM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-210300-
340 AM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 982 MB LOW NEAR 51N 177E MOVES TO 57N 180 AT 975 MB MON
MORNING...THEN MOVES TO 55N 173E AT 980 MB TUE MORNING. A 976 MB
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 54N 163W MON MORNING AND MOVES TO 55N 149W TUE
MORNING AND MAINTAINS STRENGTH.

$$

PKZ411-210300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
340 AM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT E 25 KT N OF 56N. SEAS 10
TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. .
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT E 25 KT N OF 56N. SEAS 9
TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT E 25 KT N OF 57N. SEAS 9 TO 15
FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ412-210300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
340 AM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...SE TO SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ413-210300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
340 AM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
TO 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ414-210300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
340 AM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WIND BECOMING SE 15 TO 25 KT S OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT EXCEPT W 15 TO 25 KT S OF THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT.

$$

837 
FZAK62 PAFC 210019
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
319 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-211445-
319 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 972 MB LOW AT 53N 179W MOVES TO 57N 180 AT 970 MB MON MORNING
AND THEN MOVES NEAR 55N 179E AT 988 MB TUE AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO WESTERN ALASKA
PENINSULA BY MON AFTERNOON. A 980 MB LOW FORMS ON THE FRONT AT 55N
158W AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-211445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
319 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N TO W WIND 25 TO 40 KT...EXCEPT E 25 KT N OF 56N.
SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT E 25 KT N OF 57N. 
SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ412-211445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
319 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ413-211445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
319 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 TO 27 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 28 FT.

$$

PKZ414-211445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
319 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.TUE...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

976 
FZAK62 PAFC 211228
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-220245-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 974 MB LOW NEAR 58N 176E MOVES TO 54N 169E AT 979 MB TUE
MORNING...THEN MOVES TO 55N 172E AT 988 MB WED MORNING. A 980 MB
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 56N 156W MON AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TUE. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 48N 178E
WED MORNING AT 976 MB.

$$

PKZ411-220245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 27 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ412-220245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT EXCEPT E 35 KT N OF 58N. SEAS 13 TO
18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. SNOW. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ413-220245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 28 FT.

$$

PKZ414-220245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N OF 57N...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. S OF 57N...W WIND 25 TO 40
KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
503 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE MAIN FEATURE TODAY IS THE BERING SEA LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT THAT IS NOW ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST. THE TRIPLE POINT LOW
IS EVIDENT IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY FORMING SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND. THE BERING SEA LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST. A SECONDARY TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER SOUTHEAST
TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS LOW IS
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR AS INDICATED BY THE SHOWERS IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. STRONG WEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION WITH RESPECT
TO THE TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMING SOUTH OF KODIAK AND MOVING IT TO
THE NORTH GULF COAST. WHILE THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ARE NOT MAJOR
THE DISPLACED LOCATION OF THE LOW IN EITHER SOUTHERN COOK INLET OR
SOUTH OF SEWARD RESULTS IN VERY DIFFERENT WEATHER. AT THIS POINT
WE ARE GOING WITH THE NAM FOR THE POSITION OF THIS LOW SOUTH OF
SEWARD. THIS RESULTS IN MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT INTO THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND DOWNSLOPING AROUND COOK INLET.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER STORM IS ON TAP TO
MOVE INTO THE ALEUTIANS SUNDAY. THE MODELS HAVE NOT CONVERGED ON A
SOLUTION AS OF YET. WE WILL BE OPTING TO A BLEND OF THE GFS WITH
THE WPC GUIDANCE TO HANDLE THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS
CAN COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A GALE FORCE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND WILL BE
THE FOCAL POINT FOR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS IT PROGRESSES
TOWARDS THE NORTH GULF COAST TOMORROW. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND...INCLUDING THE TURNAGAIN PASS AREA. COASTAL AREAS
ON THE OTHER HAND WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...WHICH ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM. SOUTHCENTRAL ON THE OTHER HAND
WILL SEE MOSTLY DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS FROM THE CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND TERRAIN GAPS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES SATURDAY EVENING A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE KENAI
PENINSULA WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW FROM THE KENAI
PENINSULA NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE HOMER BLUFF DUE TO MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM
COOK INLET. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT THIS SNOW COULD EVEN REACH
ADVISORY LEVEL...HOWEVER AS IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO SNOW AT THIS
RATE FOR 3-6 HOURS...THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER CRITERIA. SNOW WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATANUSKA VALLEY SATURDAY
EVENING...BRINGING A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW TO THE AREA THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY
REGIME THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND AND
WEAKEN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...WHERE MORE STRATIFORM SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT AS A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF KODIAK ISLAND PASSES JUST TO
THE EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION NEAR AND ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY IN ONSHORE FLOW AS THE BERING LOW SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE BERING CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGE
SWATH OF STORM FORCE WINDS BEING DRIVEN BY COLD ADVECTION IN
WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. THESE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARDS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH...WITH A HIGH WIND
WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS...HOWEVER GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN BERING
THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER PAIR OF NORTH PACIFIC LOWS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING ON SATURDAY AS
A LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA DRAGS A FRONT THROUGH
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN FORM ALONG THIS FRONT
AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THOSE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THERE WILL BE A WEAK LOW IN THE IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE AN UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BRISTOL BAY
AREA MOVES INTO THE GULF BY MONDAY MORNING AND PHASES WITH THE
REMNANTS OF LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES
WILL TRANSITION INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THE BARREN ISLAND
REGION WILL HAVE RAIN AND SNOW EXCEPT FOR ALL RAIN FOR KODIAK
ISLAND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION WILL HAVE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH OFFSHORE NORTHERLY WINDS BY MONDAY THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK.

ON THE BERING SEA SIDE A STORM FORCE LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS NEAR ADAK BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BRING GALE FORCE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WITH STORM FORCE WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMING
NEAR THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY.
THESES SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE
GULF BY MIDWEEK WITH A STRONG ZONAL JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE CHAIN.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE ECMWF IS
THE OUTLIER WITH MOVING THIS SYSTEM FASTER TO THE EAST COMPARED TO
THE GFS WHICH WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL WITH A SLOWER STORM TRACK
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AT BEST WITH
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERING THE AREA WILL BE A
NORTH PACIFIC LOW FORMING BY WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. THE ECMWF REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN MOVING THIS SYSTEM
RAPIDLY INTO THE NORTHERN BERING THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. THE GFS/WPC
GUIDANCES HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
THAN THE ECMWF. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE JET STREAM WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A
STRONG SOUTH TO NORTH MERIDIONAL FLOW. THIS WILL AID IN THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS NORTH PACIFIC LOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRATUS WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE CHAIN AND
THE LOWER BERING SEA THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...195.
MARINE...STORMS...170 173 175 176 177
				  179 411 412 413 414
 		 GALES...119 120 125 127 130 131 132 141 150 155
 				 165 171 172 174 178 180 185 351 352

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...PD