Storm Warning 186, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Dec 12, 2015, 2:56 PM AKST (23:56 UTC)

Expired

Dec 13, 2015, 3:45 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

516 
FZAK52 PAFC 122356
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-131245-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 933 MB LOW NEAR AMCHITKA WILL TRACK TO 160 NM SOUTH OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND AT 938 MB SUN AFTERNOON...THEN TO 90 NM NORTH OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AT 960 MB MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-131245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ155-131245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SW WIND 50 KT EXCEPT SW 40 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 25 FT BUILDING TO 35 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E...SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 37 FT EXCEPT 30
FT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ160-131245-
BRISTOL BAY-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE NORTHERN CAPES.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ165-131245-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...E WIND 30 KT
BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS
20 FT BUILDING TO 31 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S
WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FROM PORT MOLLER E...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 34 FT EXCEPT 26 FT FROM
PORT MOLLER E.
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ170-131245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT BUILDING TO 24 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 39 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 40 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 33 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ171-131245-
UNALASKA BAY-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ172-131245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20
FT BUILDING TO 30 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 44 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 42 FT SUBSIDING TO 35 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ173-131245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 70 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
90 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 24 FT BUILDING TO 40 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 70 KT DIMINISHING TO 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 90 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 43 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 60 KT BECOMING W 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
42 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ174-131245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 31 FT BUILDING TO 49 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 51 FT. RAIN  AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 41 FT SUBSIDING TO 33 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT.

$$

PKZ175-131245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 75 KT. GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEAS 28 FT BUILDING TO
34 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 70 KT DIMINISHING TO 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 90 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 40 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 37 FT SUBSIDING TO 30 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ176-131245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 75 KT. GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEAS 56 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.SUN...SW WIND 70 KT BECOMING W 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 53 FT
SUBSIDING TO 46 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 35 FT SUBSIDING TO 27 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT.

$$

PKZ177-131245-
ADAK TO KISKA-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 75 KT. GUSTS TO 90 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 25 FT
BUILDING TO 38 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PAC SIDE...SEAS 52 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.SUN...W WIND 70 KT DIMINISHING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 39 FT. PAC SIDE...SEAS 46 FT SUBSIDING TO 35 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 29 FT SUBSIDING TO 23 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT.

$$

PKZ178-131245-
KISKA TO ATTU-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 75 KT. SEAS 39 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
34 FT SUBSIDING TO 28 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT.

$$

PKZ179-131245-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT BECOMING S 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21
FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 35 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 38 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ180-131245-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 22 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 22 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ181-131245-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 21 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 21 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ185-131245-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO
55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 60 KT.
SEAS 19 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 29 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Dec 12, 5:46 AM AKST, 9 hours 10 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
546 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED
OVER COOK INLET...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA. A LOW AMPLITUDE AND RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
UNDERCUTTING THAT RIDGE...AND IS MOVING INTO THE CONFLUENT FLOW ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
ALASKA. A MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY ON RADAR.

OUT WEST...A POWERFUL CYCLONE IS BEGINNING RAPID INTENSIFICATION
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA NEAR 47N. THIS POWERFUL CYCLONE IS FORMING OFF
THE KUROSHIO CURRENT...AND HAS AN IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC FEED OF AIR
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WITH THE POLAR JET DRIVING
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH LATENT
ENERGY RELEASE FROM THE MOISTURE OFF THE KUROSHIO CURRENT THAT IT
IS FORMING ITS OWN COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP A BENT-BACK FRONTAL
STRUCTURE...A CLASSIC SIGNATURE FOR VERY INTENSE CYCLONES...WITH
STORM FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA
AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN. IN TERMS OF CENTRAL PRESSURE...WITH AN
EXPECTED DROP INTO THE 920 HPA RANGE...THIS STORM WILL PUT ITSELF
INTO THE TOP ECHELON OF INTENSE CYCLONES TO IMPACT THE BERING SEA.
CENTRAL PRESSURES THIS LOW ARE COMMON FOR CATEGORY 3 AND HIGHER
HURRICANES...TO GIVE AN IDEA HOW INTENSE THIS BAROCLINIC AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONE IS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
HEADING LATE INTO NEXT WEEK. THEY ARE ALSO IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FORCE LOW FORMING OVER THE BERING
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH THE NAM BEING THE LONE EXCEPTION. THEY ARE
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH THE LARGEST DISCREPANCY BEING
PRECIPITATION DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE
BERING...AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT LOW OVER THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE FAVORED ACROSS
THE BERING AND SOUTHCENTRAL. SOME NAM WAS USED TO CAPTURE LOCAL
WIND DETAILS...WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH...AND MODERATE WITH DETAILS
SUCH AS PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM
ANCHORAGE NORTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AS THE LOW DECAYS OVER COOK INLET TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE KENAI AND OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST.
SOME SHOWERS WILL REACH THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AS WELL AS THE
MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS...WHILE THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WILL
INTERCEPT SHOWERS AS THEY ENTER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. TONIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRY OUT THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN AND SNOW TO KODIAK ISLAND BEGINNING SUN...AND SNOW TO THE
KENAI LATER ON SUN...AND THEN TO THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL EXCEPT
FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SUN NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE GULF LOW MOVES EAST.
RIDGING BRIEFLY TRANSITS THE MAINLAND LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY A
FRONT TONIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CHANGES INTO MONDAY. THE WEATHER FRONT PUSHES INLAND ON SUNDAY
SPREADING SNOW ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
THEN THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DEEP
LAYER OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT
WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. ANOTHER
WAVE MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE POWERFUL NORTH PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO
THE BERING LATER TODAY. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CHAIN THIS MORNING TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN CAUSING WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE.
WINDS WILL PEAK TONIGHT AND THEN SLIGHTLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
STRONG GUSTS PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW MAINTAINS
STRENGTH.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...MON THROUGH FRI)... THE
VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO MONDAY AS THE COLDER AIR BEING
PULLED DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE FROM THE EASTERN ASIA REGION GETS
WOUND UP IN THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS AND TRACKS TO THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER
NORTH INTO THE BERING THE COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES AT FREEZING OR BELOW
WITH A SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDWEEK. BY
TUESDAY THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKEN TO A GALE FORCE LOW
POSITIONED JUST WEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH PREDOMINANTLY
WESTERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN THE BERING SEA. BY THURSDAY MORNING
A GALE FORCE LOW DROPS DOWN FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WITH A
WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LOW 40S BEFORE SPILLING
OVER INTO THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL BERING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ONE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS BIG SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY COASTAL FLOOD TYPE HAZARDS. EARLIER IN THE WEEK...MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH WATER RISES ALONG THE WEST
COAST. BUT THAT WAS BEFORE THE LOW TRACK WAS RESOLVED WELL. NOW
THAT THE TRACK IS A BIT MORE OF SOUTH TO NORTH...RATHER THAN DUE
EAST...WINDS AND SWELL WILL BE A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY.
THUS...GUIDANCE ON SURGE HEIGHTS HAS COME DOWN OVER THE PAST FEW
MODEL ITERATIONS. THE OTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THERE IS
SOME NEW ICE GROWTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. WHILE IT IS QUITE YOUNG
AND NOT VERY THICK AT THIS TIME...IT COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE WATER LEVELS FROM RISING AS MUCH. WE WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE
HOW THE MODELS TREND WITH THIS POTENTIAL TODAY.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MONDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF BEFORE EXITING THE AOR BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MID TO UPPER 30S
ALONG THE COASTLINES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND. SO THE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL HAVE A WINTRY MIX...WHILE IT SHOULD BE
ALL SNOW FOR THE INLAND AREAS. THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE FAIRLY WELL AND HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM THE
STRONGER TRIPLE-POINT SOLUTIONS ADVERTISED A FEW DAYS AGO.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE MIDWEEK. THE GULF
WILL HAVE A STRONG 120 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK BEFORE
EXITING THE NORTHEASTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY. UPSTREAM THERE WILL BE
A STRONG 110 KNOT ZONAL JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
THIS WILL TRACK A NORTH PACIFIC LOW INTO THE LOWER GULF BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW. THE GFS TRACKS THIS LOW TO THE FAR
EASTERN GULF AND THE ECMWF MODEL HAS THE LOW IN THE LOWER
SOUTHWESTERN GULF. WE USED THE WPC MODEL TO KEEP A MORE CONSISTENT
TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THIS MODEL KEEPS THE SYSTEM JUST EAST
OF KODIAK AS IT TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY.
THEREFORE...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE STORM TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 187 191.
 		 BLIZZARD WATCH 155
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 161
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING 173-178 412 413
         STORM WARNING 165 170 171 172 179 180 181 185 411 414
	     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 180 181 185
		 GALE WARNING 130 131 150 155 160

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...MSO/PD

In the hours before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
108 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 N ADAK STATION        51.88N 176.65W
12/12/2015  M78.00 MPH                          AK   AWOS

&&

LINGRAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
142 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     SNOW             1 NW GLEN ALPS          61.12N 149.71W
12/12/2015  M4.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LINGRAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
235 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     SNOW             2 SE EAGLE RIVER        61.30N 149.52W
12/12/2015  M2.2 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AS OF 2 PM.

&&

BLUDWIG

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2015Every storm warning in 2015

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.