Hurricane Force Wind Warning 11, NWS Anchorage, AK

751 
FZAK62 PAFC 130739
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1039 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

UPDATED 411 412 413 414

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-132015-
1039 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 933 MB LOW NEAR 52N 178E WILL TRACK TO 58N 174W AT 938 MB
SUN AFTERNOON...THEN TO 62N 173W AT 960 MB MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-132015-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
1039 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E TO N WIND 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 25 TO 38 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.SUN...NW WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 22 TO 30 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 27 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ412-132015-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
1039 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

UPDATED

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 TO 70 KT. SEAS 25 TO 39 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E OF 176E...SE TO SW WIND 40 TO 55 KT. W OF 176W...NE TO
NW WIND 30 TO 50 KT. SEAS 21 TO 31 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 28 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ413-132015-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
1039 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

UPDATED 

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE TO SW WIND 50 TO 70 KT. SEAS 19 TO 27 FT BUILDING
TO 27 TO 40 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 50 TO 70 KT. SEAS 28 TO 43 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 45 TO 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 26 TO 41 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.

$$

PKZ414-132015-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
1039 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

UPDATED

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 TO 60 KT. SEAS 6 TO 12 FT BUILDING TO 20 TO
30 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
EVENING N OF 57N.
.SUN...S WIND 45 TO 65 KT. SEAS 28 TO 43 FT SUBSIDING TO 22 TO 37
FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 45 TO 60 KT BECOMING 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 27 TO 42 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 23 TO 35 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

282 
FZAK62 PAFC 131231
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
331 AM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-140245-
331 AM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 931 MB LOW NEAR 55N 177W WILL TRACK TO 60N 171W AT 952 MB
TONIGHT...THEN TO 63N 173W AT 972 MB MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-140245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
331 AM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 TO 55 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 25
TO 35 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 TO 30 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ412-140245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
331 AM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E TO S WIND 35 TO 50 KT BECOMING N TO S IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 TO 31 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 28 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ413-140245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
331 AM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 TO 70 KT. SEAS 30 TO 50 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 TO 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 30 TO 50 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 33 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.

$$

PKZ414-140245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
331 AM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 TO 65 KT. SEAS 25 TO 43 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 25 TO 40 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 TO 35 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

202 
FZAK62 PAFC 132358
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-141430-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 940 MB LOW NEAR 58N 173W WILL TRACK TO 62N 171W AT 961 MB
MON AFTERNOON...THEN TO 65N 172W AT 982 MB TUE AFTERNOON. A 1003
MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 49N 175W MON MORNING AND MOVES INLAND FROM
BRISTOL BAY AT 996 MB TUE MORNING. A 1001 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR
51N 160W TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-141430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 26 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY W OF 176E.
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 TO 29 FT.

$$

PKZ412-141430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N TO W WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 28 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 TO 30 FT.

$$

PKZ413-141430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 24 TO 38 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 TO 31 FT.

$$

PKZ414-141430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 25 TO 40 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 23 TO 35 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 28 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
546 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED
OVER COOK INLET...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA. A LOW AMPLITUDE AND RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
UNDERCUTTING THAT RIDGE...AND IS MOVING INTO THE CONFLUENT FLOW ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
ALASKA. A MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY ON RADAR.

OUT WEST...A POWERFUL CYCLONE IS BEGINNING RAPID INTENSIFICATION
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA NEAR 47N. THIS POWERFUL CYCLONE IS FORMING OFF
THE KUROSHIO CURRENT...AND HAS AN IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC FEED OF AIR
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WITH THE POLAR JET DRIVING
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH LATENT
ENERGY RELEASE FROM THE MOISTURE OFF THE KUROSHIO CURRENT THAT IT
IS FORMING ITS OWN COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP A BENT-BACK FRONTAL
STRUCTURE...A CLASSIC SIGNATURE FOR VERY INTENSE CYCLONES...WITH
STORM FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA
AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN. IN TERMS OF CENTRAL PRESSURE...WITH AN
EXPECTED DROP INTO THE 920 HPA RANGE...THIS STORM WILL PUT ITSELF
INTO THE TOP ECHELON OF INTENSE CYCLONES TO IMPACT THE BERING SEA.
CENTRAL PRESSURES THIS LOW ARE COMMON FOR CATEGORY 3 AND HIGHER
HURRICANES...TO GIVE AN IDEA HOW INTENSE THIS BAROCLINIC AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONE IS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
HEADING LATE INTO NEXT WEEK. THEY ARE ALSO IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FORCE LOW FORMING OVER THE BERING
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH THE NAM BEING THE LONE EXCEPTION. THEY ARE
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH THE LARGEST DISCREPANCY BEING
PRECIPITATION DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE
BERING...AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT LOW OVER THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE FAVORED ACROSS
THE BERING AND SOUTHCENTRAL. SOME NAM WAS USED TO CAPTURE LOCAL
WIND DETAILS...WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH...AND MODERATE WITH DETAILS
SUCH AS PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM
ANCHORAGE NORTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AS THE LOW DECAYS OVER COOK INLET TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE KENAI AND OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST.
SOME SHOWERS WILL REACH THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AS WELL AS THE
MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS...WHILE THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WILL
INTERCEPT SHOWERS AS THEY ENTER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. TONIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRY OUT THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN AND SNOW TO KODIAK ISLAND BEGINNING SUN...AND SNOW TO THE
KENAI LATER ON SUN...AND THEN TO THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL EXCEPT
FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SUN NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE GULF LOW MOVES EAST.
RIDGING BRIEFLY TRANSITS THE MAINLAND LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY A
FRONT TONIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CHANGES INTO MONDAY. THE WEATHER FRONT PUSHES INLAND ON SUNDAY
SPREADING SNOW ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
THEN THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DEEP
LAYER OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT
WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. ANOTHER
WAVE MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE POWERFUL NORTH PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO
THE BERING LATER TODAY. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CHAIN THIS MORNING TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN CAUSING WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE.
WINDS WILL PEAK TONIGHT AND THEN SLIGHTLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
STRONG GUSTS PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW MAINTAINS
STRENGTH.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...MON THROUGH FRI)... THE
VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO MONDAY AS THE COLDER AIR BEING
PULLED DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE FROM THE EASTERN ASIA REGION GETS
WOUND UP IN THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS AND TRACKS TO THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER
NORTH INTO THE BERING THE COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES AT FREEZING OR BELOW
WITH A SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDWEEK. BY
TUESDAY THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKEN TO A GALE FORCE LOW
POSITIONED JUST WEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH PREDOMINANTLY
WESTERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN THE BERING SEA. BY THURSDAY MORNING
A GALE FORCE LOW DROPS DOWN FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WITH A
WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LOW 40S BEFORE SPILLING
OVER INTO THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL BERING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ONE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS BIG SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY COASTAL FLOOD TYPE HAZARDS. EARLIER IN THE WEEK...MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH WATER RISES ALONG THE WEST
COAST. BUT THAT WAS BEFORE THE LOW TRACK WAS RESOLVED WELL. NOW
THAT THE TRACK IS A BIT MORE OF SOUTH TO NORTH...RATHER THAN DUE
EAST...WINDS AND SWELL WILL BE A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY.
THUS...GUIDANCE ON SURGE HEIGHTS HAS COME DOWN OVER THE PAST FEW
MODEL ITERATIONS. THE OTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THERE IS
SOME NEW ICE GROWTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. WHILE IT IS QUITE YOUNG
AND NOT VERY THICK AT THIS TIME...IT COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE WATER LEVELS FROM RISING AS MUCH. WE WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE
HOW THE MODELS TREND WITH THIS POTENTIAL TODAY.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MONDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF BEFORE EXITING THE AOR BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MID TO UPPER 30S
ALONG THE COASTLINES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND. SO THE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL HAVE A WINTRY MIX...WHILE IT SHOULD BE
ALL SNOW FOR THE INLAND AREAS. THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE FAIRLY WELL AND HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM THE
STRONGER TRIPLE-POINT SOLUTIONS ADVERTISED A FEW DAYS AGO.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE MIDWEEK. THE GULF
WILL HAVE A STRONG 120 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK BEFORE
EXITING THE NORTHEASTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY. UPSTREAM THERE WILL BE
A STRONG 110 KNOT ZONAL JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
THIS WILL TRACK A NORTH PACIFIC LOW INTO THE LOWER GULF BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW. THE GFS TRACKS THIS LOW TO THE FAR
EASTERN GULF AND THE ECMWF MODEL HAS THE LOW IN THE LOWER
SOUTHWESTERN GULF. WE USED THE WPC MODEL TO KEEP A MORE CONSISTENT
TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THIS MODEL KEEPS THE SYSTEM JUST EAST
OF KODIAK AS IT TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY.
THEREFORE...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE STORM TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 187 191.
 		 BLIZZARD WATCH 155
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 161
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING 173-178 412 413
         STORM WARNING 165 170 171 172 179 180 181 185 411 414
	     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 180 181 185
		 GALE WARNING 130 131 150 155 160

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...MSO/PD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
108 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 N ADAK STATION        51.88N 176.65W
12/12/2015  M78.00 MPH                          AK   AWOS

&&

LINGRAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
142 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     SNOW             1 NW GLEN ALPS          61.12N 149.71W
12/12/2015  M4.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LINGRAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
235 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     SNOW             2 SE EAGLE RIVER        61.30N 149.52W
12/12/2015  M2.2 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AS OF 2 PM.

&&

BLUDWIG