Storm Warning 185, NWS Anchorage, AK

182 
FZAK52 PAFC 121631 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
731 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

UPDATED ZONES 160 171

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-130430-
731 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 956 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL TRACK TO 215 NM NORTH OF
ADAK AT 929 MB TONIGHT...THEN TO 175 NM WEST OF MEKORYUK AT 949
MB SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-130430-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
731 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ155-130430-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
731 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE WIND 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT BUILDING TO 30 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 35 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ160-130430-
BRISTOL BAY-
731 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS BUILDING TO 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-130430-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
731 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 50 KT EXCEPT S 40 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
20 FT BUILDING TO 30 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM PORT MOLLER E...
SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 32 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ170-130430-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
731 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 39 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 40 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 34 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ171-130430-
UNALASKA BAY-
731 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-130430-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
731 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 34 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 44 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 41 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-130430-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
731 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT INCREASING TO 70 KT EARLY EVENING. SEAS
27 FT BUILDING TO 44 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 43 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 40 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ174-130430-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
731 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 65 KT EARLY EVENING. SEAS 45 FT.
RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 50 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 41 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ175-130430-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
731 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 75 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 37 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 70 KT DIMINISHING TO 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
38 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 37 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ176-130430-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
731 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 50 KT INCREASING TO 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT BUILDING TO 31 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 75 KT. SEAS 55 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 65 KT DIMINISHING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
51 FT SUBSIDING TO 44 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 36 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ177-130430-
ADAK TO KISKA-
731 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC
SIDE...SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 37 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 75 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 29 FT BUILDING TO
38 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 49 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 65 KT DIMINISHING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
40 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-130430-
KISKA TO ATTU-
731 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING N 70 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT BUILDING TO 35 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 70 KT. SEAS 37 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 33 FT. SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ179-130430-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
731 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 37 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 40 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ180-130430-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
731 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND
RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT BUILDING TO 
17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 23 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 22 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-130430-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
731 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. SNOW WITH
RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 21 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-130430-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
731 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E
30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND
35 KT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 60 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 20 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 29 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

516 
FZAK52 PAFC 122356
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-131245-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 933 MB LOW NEAR AMCHITKA WILL TRACK TO 160 NM SOUTH OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND AT 938 MB SUN AFTERNOON...THEN TO 90 NM NORTH OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AT 960 MB MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-131245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ155-131245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SW WIND 50 KT EXCEPT SW 40 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 25 FT BUILDING TO 35 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E...SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 37 FT EXCEPT 30
FT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ160-131245-
BRISTOL BAY-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE NORTHERN CAPES.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ165-131245-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...E WIND 30 KT
BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS
20 FT BUILDING TO 31 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S
WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FROM PORT MOLLER E...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 34 FT EXCEPT 26 FT FROM
PORT MOLLER E.
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ170-131245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT BUILDING TO 24 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 39 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 40 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 33 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ171-131245-
UNALASKA BAY-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ172-131245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20
FT BUILDING TO 30 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 44 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 42 FT SUBSIDING TO 35 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ173-131245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 70 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
90 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 24 FT BUILDING TO 40 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 70 KT DIMINISHING TO 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 90 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 43 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 60 KT BECOMING W 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
42 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ174-131245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 31 FT BUILDING TO 49 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 51 FT. RAIN  AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 41 FT SUBSIDING TO 33 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT.

$$

PKZ175-131245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 75 KT. GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEAS 28 FT BUILDING TO
34 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 70 KT DIMINISHING TO 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 90 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 40 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 37 FT SUBSIDING TO 30 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ176-131245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 75 KT. GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEAS 56 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.SUN...SW WIND 70 KT BECOMING W 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 53 FT
SUBSIDING TO 46 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 35 FT SUBSIDING TO 27 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT.

$$

PKZ177-131245-
ADAK TO KISKA-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 75 KT. GUSTS TO 90 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 25 FT
BUILDING TO 38 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PAC SIDE...SEAS 52 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.SUN...W WIND 70 KT DIMINISHING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 39 FT. PAC SIDE...SEAS 46 FT SUBSIDING TO 35 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 29 FT SUBSIDING TO 23 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT.

$$

PKZ178-131245-
KISKA TO ATTU-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 75 KT. SEAS 39 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
34 FT SUBSIDING TO 28 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT.

$$

PKZ179-131245-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT BECOMING S 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21
FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 35 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 38 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ180-131245-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 22 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 22 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ181-131245-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 21 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 21 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ185-131245-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
256 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO
55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 60 KT.
SEAS 19 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 29 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
445 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
SOUTHCENTRAL...A GULF LOW THAT HAS MEANDERED OVER THE WESTERN
GULF FOR THE BETTER PART OF WEEK NOW IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE
ONSHORE INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THE KENAI AND
MIDDLETON ISLAND RADARS SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE
SOUTHERN KENAI NORTH AND EAST THROUGH NEARLY ALL OF PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. A NEAT FEATURE IN THE RADAR REFLECTIVITY IS THE CLEAR
DOWNSLOPING OCCURRING ON THE KENAI PENINSULA AS THE ECHOES
DISAPPEAR UPON CROSSING THE KENAI MOUNTAINS. OBSERVATIONS EAST OF
ANCHORAGE SHOW THE LIONS SHARE OF THE OBS ARE BELOW
FREEZING...INDICATIVE OF A COOLING OF THE WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT
WAS ALSO NOTED COMPARING ANCHORAGES MOST RECENT 12Z VERSES 00Z
SOUNDINGS.

SOUTHWEST...SNOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE KING SALMON
AREA AS A WEAK LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY COMBINED WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA GENERATES THE
LIFT NEEDED FOR CONTINUED SNOWFALL. LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ONGOING OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS WELL. OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED BACK ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A SOMEWHAT WARMER
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY.

BRISTOL BAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING IS
CENTERED BETWEEN THE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY AND A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BERING. THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING IS CAUSING GUSTY COLD
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ALEUTIANS...THE FRONT IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS...BUT IS NOTHING IN COMPARISON WITH A VERY POWERFUL LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC TAKING AIM AT THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A COMMON SOLUTION WITH THE RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE A SIMILAR INTENSIFICATION TREND AND TIMING OF THE LOW CENTER
CROSSING THE ALEUTIANS ON SAT. THE GFS OVERALL IS PREFERRED AND
WILL BE USED WITH THIS FEATURE.

IN THE EAST...MODELS ARE SIMILAR ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE NAM HOWEVER WAS PRIMARILY USED TO
CAPTURE THE MESOSCALE FEATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAKENING LOW HAS MOVED INTO COOK INLET THAT WILL START TO SHIFT
THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL HELP
TO MOVE SNOW UP THE INLET AND TOWARDS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY
TONIGHT. WEAK EASTERLY WINDS OUT OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL
CAUSE SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE OVER THE ANCHORAGE AREA. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HEAVIEST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SNOW WILL THEN CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
LOW DISSIPATES AND RIDGING MOVES IN. ON SUNDAY A FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MAKE IT OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL PUSH OUT OF THE BRISTOL
BAY AREA...LINGERING ACCUMULATING MAINLY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE
TONIGHT. BEFORE THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND EXITS...A
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND WILL KEEP SNOW GOING FOR INLAND AREAS
OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING ON
SATURDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE PRETTY QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A STRONG SYSTEM ENTERS THE EASTERN BERING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT FROM THAT SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE MAINLAND ON SUNDAY
BRINGING MOSTLY SNOW...HOWEVER SOME RAIN WILL MIX IN NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FOCUS FOR TONIGHT'S FORECAST TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING STORM IN
THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. THE FRONT WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT...FIRST BRINGING SNOW...FOLLOWED BY
RAIN. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW
WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. THE BIGGER STORY WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND FIELD. AS THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
GET INTO THE MID-920 MB RANGE...WIDESPREAD HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
ARE LIKELY. THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE WIND FIELD WILL NOT THE
THE LEADING WARM FRONT...BUT WITHIN THE STING JET ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL APPROACH THE
80 TO 100 MPH RANGE. THE PEAK OF THE EVENT WILL BE TOMORROW
EVENING...HOWEVER WARNING LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLDER
AIR BEING PULLED DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE FROM THE EASTERN ASIA
REGION GETS WOUND UP IN THE LOW. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
SHOWING 70 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS MODEL DEPICTING
THIS LOW AT AROUND 937 MB AFTER BOTTOMING OUT AT 929 MB EARLIER IN
THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS AND TRACKS TO THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY
SUNDAY EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
BERING THE COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES AT FREEZING OR BELOW WITH A SHOWERY
WEATHER REGIME AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDWEEK. BY TUESDAY THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENED TO A GALE FORCE LOW POSITIONED
JUST WEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY
SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN THE BERING SEA. BY THURSDAY MORNING A GALE
FORCE LOW DROPS DOWN FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WITH A WEATHER
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LOW 40S BEFORE SPILLING OVER
INTO THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL BERING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE EXITING THE AOR BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG
THE COASTLINES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND. SO THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES WILL HAVE A WINTRY MIX...WHILE IT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW
FOR THE INLAND AREAS. THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS SYNOPTIC
FEATURE WELL WITH CONTINUES ONSHORE FLOW HEADING INTO THE MIDWEEK.
THE GULF WILL HAVE A STRONG 120 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK
BEFORE EXITING THE NORTHEASTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY. UPSTREAM THERE
WILL BE A STRONG 110 KNOT ZONAL JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL TRACK A NORTH PACIFIC LOW INTO THE LOWER GULF
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW. THE GFS TRACKS THIS LOW TO THE
FAR EASTERN GULF AND THE ECMWF MODEL HAS THE LOW IN THE LOWER
SOUTHWESTERN GULF. WE USED THE WPC MODEL TO KEEP A MORE
CONSISTENT TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THIS MODEL KEEPS THE SYSTEM
JUST EAST OF KODIAK AS IT TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE STORM TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 187 191.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND 173 175 176 177 178. STORM WARNING
170 172 174 179 180 181 185. GALE WARNING 155 160 165 171. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY 130 160 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...PD