Alert archive / Alaska / Storm Warnings in 2015

Storm Warning 176, NWS Anchorage, AK

December 24, 2015

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this storm warning at Dec 24, 2015, 3:23 AM AKST. It was in force for 36 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 24, 2015, 3:23 AM AKST (12:23 UTC)
Expired
Dec 25, 2015, 3:20 PM AKST
In force
36 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

298 
FZAK61 PAFC 241223
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
323 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-250245-
323 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 56N 135W ANCHORS AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA COASTS. THIS TROUGH WILL
DISSIPATE FRIDAY MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF
OF ALASKA SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY MORNING AND DRIVES TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF COASTS BY SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-250245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
323 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING SW UP TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ352-250245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
323 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 35 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT BUILDING TO 9 TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT BUILDING TO 19 TO 23
FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 27 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.

$$
3 follow-up statements
901 
FZAK61 PAFC 250034
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
334 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-251415-
334 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 973 MB LOW AT 51N 165W WILL INTENSIFY TO 952 MB AT 55N 166W FRI
AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN TO 978 MB AS IT MOVES TO 56N 154W SAT
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-251415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
334 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ352-251415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
334 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 TO 55 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 26 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 19 TO 25 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$
792 
FZAK61 PAFC 251230
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
330 AM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-260200-
330 AM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
TO EASTERN GULF FRI AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES ONSHORE
EARLY SAT MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF 
SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-260200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
330 AM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 19 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ352-260200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
330 AM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 TO 55 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 18 TO 24 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$
445 
FZAK61 PAFC 260020
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
320 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-261445-
320 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA INTO
THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE SAT MORNING. THE NEXT FRONT ENTERS THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF ON SUN.

$$

PKZ351-261445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
320 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING S 15 TO 25
KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$

PKZ352-261445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
320 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Dec 23, 5:07 PM AKST, 10 hours 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 23, 5:07 PM AKST, 10 hours 16 minutes before
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
507 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVELS...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN BERING IS MOVING NORTH AND EASTWARD TOWARDS MAINLAND
SOUTHERN ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE IS BUILDING DUE TO A
STRONG STORM MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. A DIGGING TROUGH
IS SWINGING ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING AND NORTH PACIFIC. THE COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHENING THE GRADIENT WITH THE WARMER AIR MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STORM. THIS STRENGTHENED
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS HELPING TO CAUSE THE STORMS RAPID
DEEPENING.

SURFACE...WITH REGARDS TO THE BERING STORM...ITS MOVEMENT WEST OF AMCHITKA
IS KEEPING THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE STORM
LARGELY WEST OF ADAK AND ATKA...BOTH OF WHOM HAVE ONLY SEEN GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH THUS FAR. HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDS
WELL AWAY FROM THE STORM...WITH DUTCH HARBOR GETTING RAIN AND
SHEMYA GETTING SNOW.

THE WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF
THE BERING STORM IS MOVING OVER THE COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE.
THE STRONG INVERSION IS CAPPING ANY MIXING FROM
OCCURRING...KEEPING MOIST AIR TRAPPED. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD FOG...WITH LOCALLY DENSE AREAS TO PERSIST OVER NEARLY
ALL OF THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. THE 12Z KING SALMON SOUNDING AFFIRMS
THIS SCENARIO...WITH A SATURATED STRONG NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION
NOTED. THE FOG/MIST IS ALSO WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
AREA...THOUGH IT IS NOT AS DENSE DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR BEING
PRESENT ABOVE THE INVERSION...AS NOTED ON THE 12Z BETHEL SOUNDING.

FOG HAS ALSO BEEN THE PRIMARY HAZARDOUS WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. WHILE ALL OF THE TREES ARE
FESTOONED WITH HOAR FROST FROM THE FREEZING FOG OF PREVIOUS
DAYS...IT HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER SOUTHCENTRAL DUE TO A
WEAKENING INVERSION AND A BIT MORE WIND ABOVE THE INVERSION TO
PROMOTE MIXING. FOR THE FOURTH DAY IN A ROW...ANCHORAGES SOUNDING
CONTINUES TO SHOW LARGE SCALE COOLING OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR-TERM...BOTH WITH THE
TRACK AND POSITION OF THE BERING STORM...AND TRACKING THE SMALLER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. SUBSTANTIAL
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS OCCURS FOR THE DAY TOMORROW
REGARDING HOW THE BERING STORM INTERACTS WITH A SECONDARY LOW THAT
FORMS ALONG THE BERING STORMS COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.
WHILE THE SECONDARY LOW FORMS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET
STREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET...THE JET STREAK QUICKLY LEAVES THE
SECONDARY LOW BEHIND AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN GULF BY CHRISTMAS MORNING. WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THAT
SCENARIO FOR THE UPPER LEVELS...THE DISAGREEMENT IS WHERE THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW GOES ONCE THE JET STREAK HAS MOVED AWAY.
THE GFS WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE...KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...CLOSER TO THE JET STREAK AND THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN THE
LARGE MODEL SPREAD IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
ONE MORE DAY OF RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS IS IN STORE FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL AK BEFORE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG FRONT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN
THE MEANTIME...OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PEAK IN
INTENSITY TONIGHT AS A 130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES
OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PATCHY FOG
OVER THE UPPER COOK INLET REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS SKIES
CLEAR AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AT THE SURFACE. A WEAKENING FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL BRING A ROUND
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
POSSIBLY CLIP THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE KENAI PENINSULA WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN RAPIDLY DETERIORATE BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A MUCH STRONGER FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF ACCOMPANIED
BY GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION. LOCATIONS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA/WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND WILL LIKELY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
AS THE FRONT ARRIVES ALONG THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...WITH THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVING AROUND HOW QUICKLY THESE
LOCATIONS WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS AND ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING SNOW OVER THE PORTAGE VALLEY AND EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM. IT
APPEARS AT THIS TIME AS THOUGH MOST INLAND LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH RAIN
BEGINNING TO MIX IN ALONG THE COAST BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS OVER INLAND LOCATIONS.
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. INLAND LOCATIONS
INCLUDING THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL INITIALLY REMAIN DOWNSLOPED AS
STRONG CROSS BARRIER FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A POTENT WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO THE STRONG LOW IN THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WILL PUSH INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH AN OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT (EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS)...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND TO THE IMPENDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION (NOT TO MENTION THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION). THE
WARM FRONT WILL ADVECT A MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS NORTHWARD WHICH
WILL BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
FROM KIPNUK NORTHWARD...WITH REGIONS OF BLOWING SNOW INLAND AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT AS SEVERE. SNOW ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY AREA
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING
LEADING TO A TRANSITION TO RAIN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST DRYING OUT
AND WARMING UP BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY.

A SECOND LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL RAPIDLY SPIN UP ON THURSDAY
AS IT QUICKLY PUSHES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN EXTREMELY POOR IN HANDLING THE EXACT TRACK OF
THIS LOW ON FRIDAY IN WHETHER IT PUSHES INTO THE BERING SEA OR
NOT. THE TRACK PLAYS IN IMPORTANT ROLE ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BE ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE LOW WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO SCREAM THROUGH THE GAPS ALONG THE
PENINSULA. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE 65 TO 70 MPH
RANGE BUT A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THIS
FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS BRISTOL BAY FRIDAY EVENING...WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS COMING THROUGH LAKE CLARK PASS
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY PUSH ALL
THE WAY INTO THE DELTA WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A STORM FORCE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS EVIDENT FROM MULTIPLE SATELLITE IMAGES
AS WELL AS MULTIPLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. RAIN AND SNOW WILL QUICKLY TURN TO ALL
RAIN AS A STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE ONLY
LOCATION TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL WRAP
AROUND THIS LOW. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING ON THE
WEST/NORTHWEST SECTORS OF THE LOW. THE STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS
WILL PASS JUST TO THE EAST OF SHEMYA TOMORROW MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY PUSH OVER ADAK AND ATKA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
MERGE WITH ANOTHER STORM FORCE LOW MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN (MIXED WITH SNOW OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA) IN THE FORECAST AND THE STRONGEST
WINDS AFTER THE MERGER WILL BE SEEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE STRONG LOW WHICH WILL BE OUT NEAR THE TIP OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA FRIDAY EVENING WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND INTO
THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY EVENING WILL LIFT NORTH AND INLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER SEVERAL ADDITIONAL TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL SWING ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WITH MINIMAL BREAKS.
FURTHER INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH INCREASED COVERAGE ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE WILL SPIN UP INTO A CLOSED
LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THEN TRACK EAST ALONG 50N
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL REACH
THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
SURFACE LOW ROTATING UP INTO THE GULF ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL
SYSTEMS WILL TRACK INTO THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TRIPLE
POINTS AND FRONTAL WAVES DEVELOPING INTO CLOSED LOWS THAT SWING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THEN SPIN UP
ADDITIONAL SURFACE LOWS WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY ROTATE INTO THE GULF.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 155.
MARINE...STORM 132 150 155 160 165 178 177 176 180 352 411 412.
         GALE 127 129 130 131 136 137 138 139 170 172 173 174
              175 179 181 185 413 414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 181 185 &&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...JR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 23, 3:20 PM AKSTGale WarningAFC12 hr
Dec 23, 3:20 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC24 hr
Dec 23, 3:20 PM AKSTStorm WarningAFC4 days
Dec 23, 3:43 PM AKSTGale WarningAFC36 hr
Dec 23, 3:43 PM AKSTStorm WarningAFC48 hr
Dec 23, 3:43 PM AKSTStorm WarningAFC48 hr
Dec 24, 3:28 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC36 hr
Dec 24, 3:28 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC24 hr
Dec 24, 3:28 AM AKSTStorm WarningAFC36 hr
Dec 24, 3:31 AM AKSTStorm WarningAFC36 hr
Dec 24, 3:37 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC11 hr
Dec 24, 3:37 AM AKSTStorm WarningAFC3 days
Dec 24, 4:03 AM AKSTWinter Storm WatchAFC12 hr
Dec 24, 4:56 AM AKSTHigh Wind WatchAFC6 hr
Dec 24, 4:56 AM AKSTHigh Wind WarningAFC35 hr

Nearby

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2015Every storm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.