Gale Warning 925, NWS Anchorage, AK

471 
FZAK52 PAFC 241237
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
337 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-250200-
337 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 963 MB LOW 230 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK MOVES TO 75 NM NORTH OF ATKA AS
A 968 MB LOW THU NIGHT AND DISSIPATES FRI MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO A SECOND LOW AND
WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SECOND LOW 550 NM SOUTH OF ADAK DRIVES OVER DUTCH HARBOR AS A
951 MB LOW FRI MORNING THEN SHIFTS TO 60 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT AS
961 MB LOW BY SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-250200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
337 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF
CHIRIKOF ISLAND...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
CHIRIKOF ISLAND W...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ155-250200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
337 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21
FT BUILDING TO 26 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ160-250200-
BRISTOL BAY-
337 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-250200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
337 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
12 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT EXCEPT SE 50 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. GUSTS
TO 65 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-250200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
337 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. FROM DUTCH HARBOR W...E WIND 25 KT
BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE 25 KT BECOMING N 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-250200-
UNALASKA BAY-
337 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-250200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
337 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. W OF DUTCH HARBOR...S WIND 35 KT
BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. FROM DUTCH HARBOR W...SE WIND 25 KT
BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
DUTCH HARBOR W...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ173-250200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
337 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT BUILDING TO 31 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 32 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ174-250200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
337 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT BUILDING TO 30 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ175-250200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
337 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20
FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19
FT BUILDING TO 27 FT. E OF ADAK...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 32 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ176-250200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
337 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20
FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT BUILDING TO 30 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 30 FT.

$$

PKZ177-250200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
337 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22
FT BUILDING TO 33 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 32 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
30 FT SUBSIDING TO 21 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.

$$

PKZ178-250200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
337 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 60 KT...EXCEPT NW 45 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 35 FT
EXCEPT 26 FT FROM SHEMYA W. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
SHEMYA W...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
29 FT EXCEPT 21 FT FROM SHEMYA W. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT. FROM SHEMYA W...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING
VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ179-250200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
337 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ180-250200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
337 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-250200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
337 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND N.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-250200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
337 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT. S OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 50 KT
BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24 FT...EXCEPT 15 FT FROM
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND E. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FROM
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND N.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM SAINT
MATTHEW E...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND E. SNOW AND RAIN.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT E 35 KT FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND E. SEAS
15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY N OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
454 AM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND REMAINS UNDER A FAIRLY WEAK
PATTERN...WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTING
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING
SEA...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
THE DENSE FOG FROM LAST NIGHT HAS DIMINISHED TO PATCHY FOG OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING...AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO DWINDLE AND THE SURFACE INVERSIONS OVER THE AREA BEGIN
TO WEAKEN. OUT WEST...WEAK RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING...BRINGING INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND
SOME GUSTY GAP WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. SOME OF THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND REMAIN UNDER FOGGY
CONDITIONS AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER SURFACE INVERSIONS. A WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA AND HAS HELPED TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE FOG
THAT WAS ENVELOPING THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FURTHER WEST...A
DEEPENING NORTH PACIFIC LOW HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. OBSERVATIONS ALONG THESE AREAS HAVE STARTED
TO TRICKLE IN...SHOWING INCREASING WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
OVERALL THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE MAJOR FEATURES IMPACTING THE AREA
OF RESPONSIBILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. HOWEVER...THEY CONTINUE TO DIVERGE AND
STRUGGLE WITH THE TRACK AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES INTO THE BERING
SEA THIS EVENING. THE ECMWF WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE CONCERNING
THE ABOVE MENTIONED DIFFERENCES. AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY...MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING A TRIPLE POINT LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING
NEAR THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS
WERE PREFERRED WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM...WITH THE EC BECOMING
THE SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY OUTLIER AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH CONSIDERING LOW MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH IS NOT PRODUCING
MUCH PRECIPITATION...ONLY A FEW FLURRIES...BUT PLENTY OF CLOUDS.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AT THE
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. THIS RIDGE IS BUILDING AHEAD (EAST) OF A
POTENT LOW IN THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL AND A FRONT FROM THE ALEUTIAN SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A WEAK LOW MOVING ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT INTO THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE WEAKENING BY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS
AND A STAGNANT AIR MASS WITH STRONG INVERSIONS. ATTENTION QUICKLY
TURNS TO A GALE FORCE FRONT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN BERING
SEA...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WITH A OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT...COASTAL AREAS WILL BEGIN AS
SNOW...BEFORE CHANGING TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
BE ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST FROM KIPNUK NORTHWARD...WITH REGIONS OF BLOWING SNOW INLAND
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT AS SEVERE. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST DRYING OUT
AND WARMING UP BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A STORM FORCE LOW IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW WILL
QUICKLY TURN TO ALL RAIN AS A STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE ONLY LOCATION TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE COLDER
ARCTIC AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THIS LOW. IMPACTS WILL BE STORM FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...BUT THE STRONGEST
CORE OF WINDS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN BETWEEN ADAK AND SHEMYA...SO NO
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS LOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH
ANOTHER STORM FORCE NORTH PACIFIC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN BERING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
CORE OF WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE MATURING
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE (THE SOUTHERN BERING TRIPLE POINT ALLUDED
TO ABOVE) WRAPS COLD AIR ALOFT AROUND ITSELF INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN.

FURTHER TO THE EAST...NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
SHELIKOF STRAIT...COOK INLET AND ACROSS THE BARREN ISLANDS WILL
ALSO BE ENHANCED AS THE ATTENDANT FRONT APPROACHES. COLD
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE APPROACHING FRONT TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AGAIN. ADDITIONALLY SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM
AND OTHER SIMILARLY ORIENTED GAPS WILL PICK UP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COLD DRY NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE
INTERIOR AS WELL AS SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACROSS THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WILL BOTH MAKE IT HARD FOR THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING FRONT TO MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND.

THE DEEP LOW WILL REMAIN VERTICALLY STACKED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON
SUNDAY. AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS LIKELY TO BRING ADDITIONAL STRONG
LOWS INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. STORMS ENTERING THE GULF WILL MORE LIKELY BE IN THE
WEAKENING PHASE OR REMAIN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
STRONGER JET.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...155.
MARINE...GALES...127 129 131 150 165 170-176 179-181
		 STORMS...155 177 178 185
         HVY FRZG SPRY....180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...JR/CC