Storm Warning 163, NWS Anchorage, AK

750 
FZAK61 PAFC 090047
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
347 PM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-091530-
347 PM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 956 MB LOW NEAR 56N 144W MOVES TO 57N 149W AT 966 MB WED
AFTERNOON...THEN TO 56N 147W AT 986 MB THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-091530-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
347 PM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT...EXCEPT E 20 TO 30 KT W OF 147W. SEAS
13 TO 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ352-091530-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
347 PM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT...EXCEPT N 20 TO 30 KT W OF 148W.
SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT...EXCEPT N 20 TO 35 KT W OF 148W. SEAS
16 TO 25 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT N 15 TO 30 KT W OF 149W.
SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
455 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND NORTH PACIFIC
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE STATE...WHILE
KEEPING THE JET STREAM WELL SOUTH OF THE AOR. UNDER THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW A DEVELOPING LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE GULF IS BRINGING
A FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE GULF TONIGHT AND BE THE FOCUS FOR
THE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL THIS WEEK. AHEAD
OF THIS LOW...RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND THAT RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS FOG HOWEVER QUICKLY DIMINISHED SOON
AFTER SUNRISE AS NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING GULF LOW. OVER THE BERING A WEAKENING FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE AKPEN TO THE PRIBILOFS IS BRINGING RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE AREA. OVER A WESTERN BERING A SHORTWAVE MOVING TO THE
SOUTH IS BRINGING SNOW AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FROM THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WITH PLACEMENT
OF THE DEEPENING LOW IN THE GULF TUE-WED. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS BY KEEPING THE LOW CENTER OVER
THE WESTERN-CENTRAL GULF...WHILE THE REST HAD TRENDED TOWARDS THE
PANHANDLE. NOW WITH THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUNS THEY ALL BRING THE
LOW INTO THE WESTERN OR CENTRAL GULF...HOWEVER THE 12Z EC HAS
TRENDED MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN ANY OTHER SOLUTION. THIS WILL BE
TREATED AS AN OUTLIER AND THE OLD 00Z EC AND NEW 12Z GFS WERE USED
TO UPDATE THE FORECAST TODAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN
LATER RUNS HOWEVER...AS A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THIS LOW WOULD
RESULT IN THE A LARGE CHANGE TO THE WESTERN GULF
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AROUND KODIAK ISLAND AND SOUTHERN COOK
INLET.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
SOUTHCENTRAL WITH RIDGING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE RIDGING IS
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A NEW LOW IS MOVING INTO THE GULF
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO
COASTAL LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY ON THE
GULF SIDE OF THE COASTAL RANGES.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS FOR FOG AND STRATUS
FORMATION AROUND COOK INLET AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. WITH THE
RIDGING MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND A CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW AS
THE RIDGE AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE COOK INLET AREA FOG FORMATION
IS LESS LIKELY THAN IT HAS BEEN THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS. THERE IS
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM AROUND COOK INLET BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING WILL BRING A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN CAPES AND COASTAL AREAS OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND MAINTAINS STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO DIP AS LOW AS 20
DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WORST BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS SHOULD PEAK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS
BEFORE BOTH WINDS AND PRECIPITATION BEGIN DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES SOUTH OF SHEMYA. THEREFORE LEFT THE
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 9PM THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...MUCH OF THE BERING WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW CENTER REMAINING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
MOST INTENSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW...BRINGING A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE BERING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING...WHICH HAS BEEN A SEMI-
PERMANENT FEATURE LATELY...WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND WESTERN GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BRIEF
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE MAINLAND BEHIND THE TROUGH SATURDAY...
BUT IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER MUCH OF THE BERING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A GALE FORCE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
WEDNESDAY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE
EVENTUALLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PANHANDLE BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONFINED TO THE
GULF AND EASTERN BERING THROUGH SATURDAY. GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE GULF COAST. AREAS AROUND
THE GULF COAST WILL EXPERIENCE A SERIES OF FRONTS ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE OVER THE BERING...BROAD NORTHERLY
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE SPECIFICS OF A STRONG NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND BERING
SEA. THIS SYSTEM HOLDS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS TO THE AREA AS IT TRAVERSES THROUGH THE BERING AND INTO
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160 180 181 185
 		GALE...119 120 127 130 131 132 136 138 139 150 174 175 177 178
		179 180 181 185 .

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...TP