Gale Warning 834, NWS Anchorage, AK

670 
FZAK62 PAFC 081252
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
352 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-090245-
352 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 964 MB LOW NEAR 52N 168W BECOMES ABSORBED BY A 958 MB LOW NEAR 57N
148W WED MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING TUE AFTERNOON AND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH THU MORNING.
A 997 LOW NEAR 53N 171E WED MORNING MAINTAINS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES
TO 52N 178E BEFORE DISSIPATING WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-090245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
352 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$

PKZ412-090245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
352 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$

PKZ413-090245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
352 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 28 FT.

$$

PKZ414-090245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
352 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

193 
FZAK62 PAFC 090046
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
346 PM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-091530-
346 PM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 968 MB LOW NEAR 52N 164W BECOMES ABSORBED BY A 957 MB LOW NEAR
57N 148W BY WED MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING WED MORNING DRIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING BY
THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-091530-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
346 PM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
58N.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 29 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 TO 35 FT.

$$

PKZ412-091530-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
346 PM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY
AFTER MIDNIGHT N OF 58N.
.THU...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 28 TO 37 FT.

$$

PKZ413-091530-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
346 PM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 28 TO 38 FT.

$$

PKZ414-091530-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
346 PM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE TO NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N.
.THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 32 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
537 AM AKST MON DEC 7 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A POWERFUL 190 KT CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER LEVEL NORTH PACIFIC
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH ITS GENERAL PLACEMENT AROUND
35N TO 45N...THIS IS KEEPING THE GENERAL STORM TRACK WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAINLAND. A SHARP SHORT-WAVELENGTH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA...WITH AN
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING INTO
EASTERN SIBERIA. ANOTHER LOW CENTER IS IN THE VICINITY OF
UNALASKA...AND THIS IS THE ANCHOR OF THE NORTH PACIFIC JET STREAM.
AMPLIFYING ALONG THIS JET IS A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON
TUESDAY. OVER SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT
AND CLEAR SKIES...COLD AIR AND STRENGTHENING INVERSIONS IS
ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD REGIONS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP
INLAND...WITH WEAK OUTFLOW DRAINAGE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE GENERAL
PATTERN HEADING INTO THE LATE WEEK. THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE STRONG GALE FORCE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF TUESDAY...BUT
THERE REMAINS TRACK AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. THE
ECMWF AND GFS WERE BOTH FAVORED ACROSS BOTH THE BERING SEA AND THE
STRONG GULF LOW AS THEY HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED CONSISTENT.
IMPACTS...HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO REMAIN LARGELY RELEGATED TO THE
MARINE WATERS AS PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY IMPACT THE COAST UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH RESPECT TO
IMPACTS...WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT ON
FOG AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN A FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA
ON UP TURNAGAIN AND KNIK ARMS AS WELL AS ACROSS MOST OF THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. INVERSIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO STEEPEN WITH UPPER RIDGE
MOVING OVERHEAD (AS SEEN IN 12Z ANCHORAGE SOUNDING). THEREFORE...
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TODAY. THERE WILL BE A SHIFT
IN THE LOW LEVEL LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS EVEN SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT THIS MAY HELP DISSIPATE SOME OF THE FOG
AND STRATUS AND ENSURE IT DOES NOT RETURN. ASIDE FROM THE FOG/STRATUS
INLAND SECTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN COOL AND DRY.

MORE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES DOWN OVER THE GULF AS A SERIES OF
FRONTS LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF...MAINLY AFFECTING KODIAK
ISLAND. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC TODAY AND TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...
BUT FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE IMPACTS (NAMELY WIND
AND RAIN) WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND. SOME PRECIP
MAY WORK ITS WAY TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH. MORE NOTABLE...AS THE STORM FIRST MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE GULF TUESDAY GAP WINDS ALONG PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL RAMP BACK UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
TRANSITION TO A CLOSED HIGH BY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED
OFFSHORE WINDS. BY THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COASTLINE. BY TUESDAY THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING MORE SUNNY SKIES FOR THE SOUTHWEST REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE STORM FORCE LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING WILL BE LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF NIKOLSKI LATER THIS MORNING THEN CROSS INTO THE PACIFIC
TUESDAY MORNING JUST SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR. THIS WILL BRING STORM
FORCE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS TODAY.
THE SCATTEROMETER SURFACE WIND VECTORS SHOWED 50 KNOT NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING SEA EARLY THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON BRINGING SNOW.
THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INCLUDING SHEMYA THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW WAS ISSUED
FOR EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH THIS SYNOPTIC
FEATURE. OTHERWISE...GALE FORCE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME CONTINUES
ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS DOMINANT. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE BERING EXCEPT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING THAT HAS BEEN A
SEMI-PERMANENT FEATURE LATELY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE GULF
AND DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A GALE FORCE FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE
COURSE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONFINED TO THE GULF AND EASTERN BERING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THIS WILL BRING
GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE GULF COAST. WHILE
OVER THE BERING...BROAD NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BRING COLD
AIR ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BY LATE NEXT WEEK...THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE GULF LOW WILL DISSIPATE SOMEWHERE
AROUND THE NORTH GULF COAST...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC....WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 191.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 178.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140 160 180 181 185.
         GALE WARNING 119 120 127 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 150
                      160 174 175 176 177 179 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...TP