Storm Warning 141, NWS Anchorage, AK

235 
FZAK51 PAFC 171235
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180115-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH WED
NIGHT. A 1011 MB LOW FORMS NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS WED
AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO NEAR CAPE SAINT ELIAS WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-180115-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ120-180115-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ121-180115-
RESURRECTION BAY-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE MORNING..
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-180115-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-180115-
PORT VALDEZ-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-180115-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-180115-
VALDEZ ARM-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-180115-
PASSAGE CANAL-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-180115-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-180115-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ132-180115-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ136-180115-
CHINIAK BAY-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-180115-
MARMOT BAY-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-180115-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-180115-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-180115-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-180115-
KACHEMAK BAY-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

154 
FZAK51 PAFC 171633 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
733 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

UPDATED 125 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180430-
733 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH WED
NIGHT. A 1011 MB LOW FORMS NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS WED
AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO NEAR CAPE SAINT ELIAS WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-180430-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
733 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ120-180430-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
733 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ121-180430-
RESURRECTION BAY-
733 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE MORNING.. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-180430-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
733 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-180430-
PORT VALDEZ-
733 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-180430-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
733 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-180430-
VALDEZ ARM-
733 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-180430-
PASSAGE CANAL-
733 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 6 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-180430-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
733 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-180430-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
733 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ132-180430-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
733 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ136-180430-
CHINIAK BAY-
733 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-180430-
MARMOT BAY-
733 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-180430-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
733 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-180430-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
733 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.  
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-180430-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
733 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-180430-
KACHEMAK BAY-
733 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

259 
FZAK51 PAFC 180030
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181345-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 995 MB LOW 75 NM WEST OF YAKUTAT MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE WED
MORNING. A 1010 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS LATE WED
AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE BY MIDDAY THU. A
STRONG FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN GULF THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-181345-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-181345-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-181345-
RESURRECTION BAY-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-181345-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 30 KT OUT OF NORTHERN
BAYS AND PASSES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-181345-
PORT VALDEZ-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-181345-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-181345-
VALDEZ ARM-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-181345-
PASSAGE CANAL-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS
5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. STRONGER GUSTS 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ130-181345-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-181345-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ132-181345-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-181345-
CHINIAK BAY-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1
FOOT BUILDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-181345-
MARMOT BAY-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-181345-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-181345-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-181345-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-181345-
KACHEMAK BAY-
330 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
511 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
MAINLAND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW CENTER. THIS IS A VERY DRY TROUGH HOWEVER...WHICH HAS ALLOWED
FOR CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
LOW IS FORMING OVER THE GULF...WHICH ALONG WITH A TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT PRODUCED FROM COLD AIR ENTRENCHED THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH
MAINLAND IS BRINGING GUSTY GAP WINDS TO THE GULF COAST. THE STRONGEST
OF WHICH ARE OCCURRING FROM WHITTIER TO KODIAK ISLAND WHERE STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND JET SUPPORT IS PRESENT. THE FIRST OF TWO
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND MOVING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE OTHER
IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE BERING FROM EASTERN SIBERIA...WHICH CAN
BEGIN TO BE SEEN WITH SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL BERING SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE PRIBILOFS. OVER THE
WESTERN BERING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW NEAR
THE KAMCHATKA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON THIS EASTWARD
TRACK TODAY AND BRING A PATTERN CHANGE TO THE MAINLAND BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING WHEN
THEY BEGIN TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL BERING. THEY HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS MORNINGS 12Z MODEL RUNS WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN BERING. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS
HAD BROUGHT THIS MUCH FURTHER TO THE NORTH INTO SIBERIA...WHILE
THE EC/NAM/GEM GLOBAL WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
WOULD MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE JET. THE 12Z GFS HAS SINCE COME IN
MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE MODELS...THOUGH THERE STILL
ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND ON WEDNESDAY. THE
12Z MODELS HAVE ALSO COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FIRST LOW IN THE
BERING ON THURSDAY...AND ARE NOW IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS LOW WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE FORMATION OF A SMALL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS EVENING WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN WINDS TO STRONG WIND LEVELS TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ALONG COOK INLET AS PRECIPITATION BAND OSCILLATES NEAR THE KENAI
PENINSULA SHORE. ON TUE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SOUTHCENTRAL FINDS
ITSELF BENEATH A WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY TUE NIGHT THE
NEXT FRONT FROM THE BERING LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST AK...WITH
OVERRUNNING CLOUDS SPREADING EAST OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. ON WED
SNOW MOVES ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA...BUT DOES NOT
REACH THE ANCHORAGE AREA UNTIL EARLY WED EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...TUE AND
WED)...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MOST OF THE MAINLAND WILL REMAIN UNDER RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ALONG THE COAST FROM THE
DELTA SOUTH THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA...A QUICK HITTING "POLAR
FRONT" WILL MAKE FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A FEW POLAR
VORTICES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FEATURE. AS THEY PASSED
THROUGH THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THEY BROUGHT A VERY BRIEF BLAST OF
BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS. THEY CIRCULATIONS WILL BE VERY
COMPACT...BUT IF THEY WERE TO HIT A POPULATION CENTER...THEY WOULD
BRING VERY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. THE WORST
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN OVER THE WATERS OF BRISTOL BAY. AFTER
THIS CLEARS THE AREA TUE MORNING...WE SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO A
WEAK WARM FRONT COMING ACROSS THE BERING. THIS SHOULD BRING SNOW
TO THE AREA STARTING ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES BY TUE EVENING.
THE ZONAL JET PUSHES THE LOW CENTER ITSELF QUICKLY ACROSS THE
BERING AND BRINGS THE REST OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE MAINLAND ON WED. WHILE MOST INLAND LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
SNOW...WE COULD START TO SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN ALONG THE COAST AND
ALASKA PENINSULA AS A WEAK PUSH OF WARM AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC.

COASTAL FLOODING COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN LATER THIS WEEK. AS THESE
TWO STORMS TRACK QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST...THEY WILL BRING A
LONG FETCH OF WESTERLY SWELL TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THE SECOND
STORM IS THE STRONGER OF THE TWO AND TAKES THE MORE FAVORABLE
TRACK FOR A HIGHER SURGE. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A STORM SURGE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE HIGHEST ASTRONIMCAL TIDE. THAT
SAID...THE EXACT SURGE WOULD BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STORM
TRACK. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW WILL
MOVE INLAND. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN EXACT TIMING AND
HEIGHT OF THE SURGE...IT IS LIKELY THAT WATER LEVELS WILL RISE
ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WEST COAST LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...TUE AND
WED)...A POTENT ZONAL JET OVER THE ALEUTIANS WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST LOW IS DEVELOPING
NORTH OF SHEMYA. IT IS HELPING TO CREATE SOME GALE FORCE
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING. IT IS
ALSO BRINGING THE FIRST SHOT OF APPRECIABLE WARM AIR TO THE BERING
THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN ABOUT A WEEK. PRECIPITATION HAS TURNED OVER
TO ALL RAIN FOR SHEMYA. THIS LOW WILL TRACK QUICKLY ACROSS THE
BERING AND DRAG ITS GALE FORCE FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CHAIN. IT
WILL ALSO BRING A FAIRLY BROAD SWATH OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL
START AS SNOW BUT SHOULD TURN OVER TO RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
NEXT LOW WILL DEVELOP VERY NEAR SHEMYA ON WED. THIS STORM SHOULD
BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND BRING SOME STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST IS A STORM SYSTEM
THAT QUICKLY DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS STACKED SYSTEM ADVECTS A MUCH WARMER AIR
MASS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE BERING WHICH WILL BRING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING...INITIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS THE
PRIBILOFS AND ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH
THE WARMER AIR ALOFT SURGING INLAND AT A FASTER PACE. THERE IS
STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
MOVES...SO CONSERVATIVE EDITS WERE MADE TODAY USING A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH INTRODUCES THE WARMER CONDITIONS FURTHER
NORTH. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN COLD AIR ADVECTS
IN ON FRIDAY. EARLY THURSDAY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF AND SOUTHERN KENAI WITH SNOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
KENAI BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE LOW LOSES MOMENTUM AS IT CROSSES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING ON SUNDAY.
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM WAS SLOWED DOWN BY THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AS
RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS AMPLIFIES OVER THE MAINLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121 126 127 129 130 138 139 160
								180 181 185.
	GALE...121 126 127 129 130 131 132 136 137 138 150
	155 165 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MSO
LONG TERM...KH