Small Craft Advisory 910, NWS Anchorage, AK

202 
FZAK52 PAFC 171223
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
323 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-180145-
323 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND TO
BRISTOL BAY WEAKENS IN PLACE AND DISSIPATES THIS EVENING. A 995
MB LOW 350 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU MOVES TO 390 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF
SAINT PAUL AT 996 MB THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING INTO ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT. THIS ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BERING
AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES TO THE NORTHERN BERING AND SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND BY WED AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING 983 MB LOW 400 NM WEST
OF ATTU THIS EVENING MOVES TO 275 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL AT 972 MB
WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-180145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
323 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ155-180145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
323 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ160-180145-
BRISTOL BAY-
323 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY IN
THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ165-180145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
323 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ170-180145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
323 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-180145-
UNALASKA BAY-
323 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-180145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
323 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-180145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
323 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-180145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
323 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-180145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
323 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.THU...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-180145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
323 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-180145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
323 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-180145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
323 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 55 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 19 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 25 FT BUILDING TO 34 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ179-180145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
323 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-180145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
323 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING NORTH OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ181-180145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
323 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
IN THE MORNING TOWARD THE COAST.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-180145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
323 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN
THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO
40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 45 KT.
SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

378 
FZAK52 PAFC 180009
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
309 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-181315-
309 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 996 MB LOW 425 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING AND WEAKENS INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BY WED
AFTERNOON. A 977 MB LOW 275 NM WEST OF ATTU ISLAND LATE TUE NIGHT
MOVES TO 75 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA AT 971 MB WED AFTERNOON...THEN
TO 75 NM WEST OF HOOPER BAY AT 975 MB THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-181315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
309 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ155-181315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
309 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ160-181315-
BRISTOL BAY-
309 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT EAST 15 KT ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST...EAST WIND 20 KT
BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ165-181315-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
309 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ170-181315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
309 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ171-181315-
UNALASKA BAY-
309 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-181315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
309 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ173-181315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
309 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ174-181315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
309 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ175-181315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
309 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ176-181315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
309 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ177-181315-
ADAK TO KISKA-
309 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 31 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 31 FT.

$$

PKZ178-181315-
KISKA TO ATTU-
309 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND INCREASING TO 55 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 19 FT
BUILDING TO 26 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 24 FT
BUILDING TO 34 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
34 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 27 FT.

$$

PKZ179-181315-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
309 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ180-181315-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
309 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR
THE COAST...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ181-181315-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
309 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND IN
THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ185-181315-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
309 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO
40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 40 KT.
SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 50 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

565 
FZAK52 PAFC 181209
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-190045-
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 996 MB LOW 230 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND DISSIPATES THIS
AFTERNOON. A 976 MB LOW 330 NM WEST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 140 NM
NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA AT 971 MB THIS EVENING THEN TO 80 NM NORTH OF
HOOPER BAY AT 977 MB THU EVENING. A 995 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
MOVE TO 360 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK THU EVENING.

$$

PKZ150-190045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ155-190045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ160-190045-
BRISTOL BAY-
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ165-190045-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ170-190045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT BUILDING TO 28 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ171-190045-
UNALASKA BAY-
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-190045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ173-190045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ174-190045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
14 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ175-190045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT BUILDING TO 28 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
30 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ176-190045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ177-190045-
ADAK TO KISKA-
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 31 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
28 FT SUBSIDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT.

$$

PKZ178-190045-
KISKA TO ATTU-
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
BERING SIDE...SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 23 FT BUILDING TO 34 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 34 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ179-190045-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ180-190045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ181-190045-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ185-190045-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
309 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO
40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 50 KT.
SEAS 21 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY N OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.THU...S WIND 40 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 50 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
516 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF THE STATE...WITH A STRONG JET STREAM SOUTH OF
THE GULF PUSHING A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN
MAINLAND AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. A RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS
JUST STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION THROUGH TERRAIN GAPS INTO THE
GULF AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD
HELP CLEAR OUT THE PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS OBSERVED OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND
WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC LATER TODAY. TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OVER FAR EASTERN RUSSIA...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WITH A STRONG FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN BERING FROM FAR EASTERN RUSSIA CURRENTLY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL INITIATE A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD WARMER
CONDITIONS IS SITUATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE BERING AND WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY UNTIL ABOUT
MID-WEEK...WHEN SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE BERING
SEA WEATHER SYSTEMS ENDS UP YIELDING GREATER DISCREPANCIES TOWARD
THE WEEKEND DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND.

THE BROAD TROUGH FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF CURRENTLY WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING WILL PUSH
RAPIDLY INTO THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND BRING A SHARP INCREASE
IN WINDS BEHIND IT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION.

A GALE-FORCE WEATHER FRONT WITH EMBEDDED SURFACE LOWS CURRENTLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE BERING SEA WILL TRACK INTO THE BERING AND
ELONGATE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING. THIS ELONGATED
SURFACE FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL QUICK-MOVING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO TRAVEL ALONG IT TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF
AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THIS FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE
MAINLAND THAT WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE TYPE OF HAZARDOUS
WEATHER TO IMPACT THE STATE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
ANOTHER COLD ADVECTION BORA WIND EVENT WILL RAMP UP TODAY ALONG
THE GULF COAST. THE KEY FEATURES AT PLAY ARE A COLD UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY FROM INTERIOR
ALASKA WITH TRAILING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA. AS THESE FEATURES
PROGRESS EASTWARD ARCTIC AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTH AND EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF.

THE ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGEST FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN GULF. WINDS WILL PEAK TONIGHT
AS THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES THROUGH...AIDED BY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND MIXING DOWN OF STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT. COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE WEAKER FROM INTERIOR ALASKA INTO THE HEART OF
SOUTHCENTRAL...SO EXPECT WINDS TO BE WEAKER. ALSO WITH STRONG
SURFACE-BASED INVERSIONS IN MANY OF THE INLAND VALLEYS IT WILL BE
HARD FOR THE WINDS TO ERODE THE INVERSIONS. THE FAVORED AREAS FOR
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE OUT OF GAPS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE...ALONG
COOK INLET...AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND IT WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG WIND EVENT. THE
COMBINATION OF A DEEP LOW MOVING TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS MORNING
AND COLD AIR POURING OFF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE GULF WILL
LEAD TO FALLING PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENTS REGION-WIDE. THIS WILL ENHANCE WINDS THROUGH
ALL OF THE MOUNTAIN GAPS AND BAYS.

WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION THE
ADDITION OF WIND WILL CREATE SOME VERY LOW WIND CHILLS. AT THIS
POINT IN TIME DO NOT EXPECT TO REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED (LARGELY UNINHABITED) LOCATIONS ALONG
THE ALASKA RANGE. THIS LATEST WIND EVENT WILL DIE DOWN TUESDAY
FOR MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL...SO TUESDAY NIGHT COULD BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT SO FAR THIS YEAR FOR MANY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD AIR MASS
LIES OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ON
TUESDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA WEAKENS AND MOVES FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME MOISTURE TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN COAST AND ALONG
THE ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING WILL BEGIN TO
INLAND OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING
SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND STEADIER PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
STRONG WINDS AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD...AS THE LOW
CENTERED JUST EAST OF UNALASKA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND TRACK
SOUTH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THIS MORNING. A STRONG SYSTEM WILL
PUSH INTO THE WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS TONIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING MOSTLY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK INTO
THE CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIANS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION FROM THE CURRENT
PATTERN DOMINATED BY COLD TEMPERATURES AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO MORE
MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER ASIDE FROM THESE BASIC DETAILS...OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OFFER VASTLY
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON THE DEGREE OF WARMING AND ALSO PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS POISED TO TRAVERSE THE
BERING SEA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
THEN SPREADING TO SOUTHCENTRAL AK IN THE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH
FROM RUN TO RUN WITH THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR THAT WILL BE ADVECT
INLAND THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...AN OVERALL
COLDER TREND HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH
TENDS TO FAVOR THE UPCOMING PRECIPITATION EVENTS TO BE MAINLY SNOW
EVENTS. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS MODELS POORLY
HANDLE THE ENERGY IN THE JET STREAM AND HOW IT AMPLIFIES THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. ANY WARMER SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR A FREEZING RAIN
EVENT IF THE COLDER AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS TO
NARROW DOWN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...130 138.
         GALE...121 127 129 130-132 137 138 150 170-179

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...CB/MMC