Storm Warning 125, NWS Anchorage, AK

116 
FZAK51 PAFC 060019
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-061300-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL WEAKEN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS
EVENING. A 975 MB LOW ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA 90 NM
NORTHEAST OF CHIGNIK AND MOVES TO 120 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT 
AS A 997 MB LOW BY SAT EVENING.

$$

PKZ119-061300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT EARLY THIS EVENING.
NEAR THE COAST...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-061300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 25 KT DURING THE EVENING. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-061300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS 
S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD.
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-061300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE THIS EVENING.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-061300-
PORT VALDEZ-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-061300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-061300-
VALDEZ ARM-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 30 KT EARLY THIS EVENING...
THEN DIMINISHING TO 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT 
THIS EVENING THEN SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-061300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-061300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-061300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ132-061300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT SW 25 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
SEAS 24 FT EXCEPT 17 FT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT EXCEPT W 30 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ136-061300-
CHINIAK BAY-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-061300-
MARMOT BAY-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-061300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-061300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT TOWARD MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-061300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-061300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

577 
FZAK51 PAFC 060358 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
658 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

UPDATED ZONE 119

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-061615-
658 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL WEAKEN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS
EVENING. A 975 MB LOW ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA 90 NM
NORTHEAST OF CHIGNIK AND MOVES TO 120 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT 
AS A 997 MB LOW BY SAT EVENING.

$$

PKZ119-061615-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
658 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. NEAR THE COAST...SE WIND 55 KT BECOMING
S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-061615-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
658 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 25 KT DURING THE EVENING. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-061615-
RESURRECTION BAY-
658 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS  S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-061615-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
658 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE THIS EVENING.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-061615-
PORT VALDEZ-
658 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-061615-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
658 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-061615-
VALDEZ ARM-
658 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 30 KT EARLY THIS EVENING...
THEN DIMINISHING TO 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT 
THIS EVENING THEN SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-061615-
PASSAGE CANAL-
658 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT.  SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-061615-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
658 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-061615-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
658 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ132-061615-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
658 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT SW 25 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
SEAS 24 FT EXCEPT 17 FT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT EXCEPT W 30 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE.  SEAS
21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ136-061615-
CHINIAK BAY-
658 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-061615-
MARMOT BAY-
658 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-061615-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
658 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SEAS
5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-061615-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
658 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT TOWARD MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-061615-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
658 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS  THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-061615-
KACHEMAK BAY-
658 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SEAS
3 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

091 
FZAK51 PAFC 061219
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
319 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-070100-
319 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 979 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND MOVES TO 60 NM WEST OF YAKUTAT AS
A 988 MB LOW BY EARLY SAT. THIS LOW REMAINS STATIONARY AND WEAKENS
TO 1004 MB BY SUN.

$$

PKZ119-070100-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
319 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-070100-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
319 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-070100-
RESURRECTION BAY-
319 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-070100-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
319 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-070100-
PORT VALDEZ-
319 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-070100-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
319 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-070100-
VALDEZ ARM-
319 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-070100-
PASSAGE CANAL-
319 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-070100-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
319 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW BY LATE MORNING THEN INCREASING
TO W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-070100-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
319 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT BY LATE MORNING THEN
INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-070100-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
319 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
19 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ136-070100-
CHINIAK BAY-
319 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W 15 KT INCREASING TO NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-070100-
MARMOT BAY-
319 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-070100-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
319 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 45 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
40 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-070100-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
319 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-070100-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
319 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-070100-
KACHEMAK BAY-
319 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
504 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN STORM OVER THE AREA TODAY IS A LARGE STRONG MATURE LOW
NOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE STORM NOW MOVING ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IS PRODUCING STRONG PRE-FRONTAL WIND AND STRONG
GUSTY WIND AROUND THE NORTH TO WEST SIDE OF THE STORM. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT IS PUSHING EAST SPREADING RAIN IN ADVANCE OF IT
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS INTENSE LOW IS
SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER LOW AND A 140 KT JET IS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THIS UPPER LOW AND TROUGH. COLD AIR ALOFT IS FEEDING IN
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY RESULTING IN STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LOW.

THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW THAT MOVED ACROSS THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVED INLAND OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY IN THE DELTA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
INTENSE LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AS IT MATURES THEN
SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT TO ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
THURSDAY.

THE MODELS DO DIVERGE ON THE SOLUTION OF THE THE DETAILS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THESE IMPORTANT
DETAILS ARE CRITICAL TO THE FORECAST SOLUTION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
AGREE ON THE RAIN SNOW LINE AND COLD ADVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA FRIDAY AS THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER. THE DIFFERENCE WHILE
MINOR MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE IN WHAT MAY HAPPEN IN THE ANCHORAGE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ALL THE MODELS BRING A WEAK LOW TO THE NORTH
GULF COAST. THE NAM HOWEVER DOES BRING A LOBE OF THIS LOW INTO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THIS SOLUTION IS THE CLASSIC COLD ADVECTION
SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN COOK INLET ANCHORAGE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF
PREFER TO KEEP THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH AND ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE
ABOUT BRING COLD AIR SOUTH AND EAST. AT THIS TIME WE ARE
CONTINUING WITH THE RAIN SNOW MIX FORECAST AND WILL BE MONITORING
THIS CLOSELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS AS THE WELL DEVELOPED LOW NEAR ADAK THIS AFTERNOON AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN OVER KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY TOMORROW MORNING. PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ALONG COASTAL REGIONS AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ALASKA
RANGE EAST OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS ON THURSDAY
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. INTERIOR AREAS OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT WITH
AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5 INCHES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS TOMORROW.
PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG COOK INLET AND INTO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
EVOLVING INTO A RAIN-SNOW MIX BY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT...THE ANCHORAGE BOWL INTO THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN DOWNSLOPED UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WHEN
THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.

OVER THE MARINE AREAS...WIDESPREAD UPPER GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
SOUTHCENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BARRIER JET
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
RAIN AND SNOW WILL PICK BACK UP OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
TONIGHT AS THE DECAYING FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA TRACKS
FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING...AND IS QUICKLY REPLACED WITH
STEADIER RAINFALL FROM A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP BERING SEA
LOW. WARMER AIR FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL FILTER IN OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING
RAIN AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
BY FRIDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AKPEN...AND RESIDUAL RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER
NORTHWEST FLOW FILTERS INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT
AS GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...WITH THE STRONGEST AREAS BEING
LOCALIZED TO ALONG THE COAST AND ALEUTIAN RANGE. THE WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
TRACKS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AS THE ALEUTIAN LOW MIGRATES EAST IT WILL SPREAD STORM AND
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT...THEN
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
THURSDAY. STRONG GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIGRATE OVER TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THURSDAY...THEN INTO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA BY FRIDAY. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FOR TONIGHT. WHILE WINDS SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE
BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD AND INTO THE GULF.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA WITH THE MAIN
PRESSURE CENTERS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST THERE IS STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF IMPACTS. THE LOW THAT WILL BE IN
THE GULF BY FRIDAY HAS THE MOST AGREEMENT WITH IT MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THE LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST FOR THIS LOW IS THAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT A LOW ALSO FORMING IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WHICH COULD LEAD TO
INCREASED SNOWFALL FOR ANCHORAGE. AT THIS TIME THERE IS LOW
PROBABILITY OF THIS HAPPENING. THE OTHER PROBLEM IS THE LOW MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN BERING OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOT OF
DIFFERENCE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.
SOME OF THE MODELS BRING IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY ON SUNDAY
WHILE SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH SLOWER RESULTING IN AN ALMOST
24 HOUR TIME DIFFERENCE. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR IT BRINGS UP FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BY LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC......HIGH WIND WARNING 187.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING 176.
         STORM WARNING 119 155 170 172 173 174 175 177.
         GALE WARNING 120 125 130 131 132 137 139 141 150 160 165
                      171 178 179 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...DK