Gale Warning 746, NWS Anchorage, AK

113 
FZAK51 PAFC 051220
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
320 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-060100-
320 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF MOVES ACROSS THE GULF BY FRI EVENING.
THE ASSOCIATED 965 MB LOW MOVES TO KODIAK ISLAND EARLY FRI AT 977
MB...THEN SHIFTS TO 80 NM WEST OF YAKUTAT AS A 987 MB LOW BY SAT
MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-060100-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
320 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NEAR THE COAST...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-060100-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
320 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-060100-
RESURRECTION BAY-
320 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-060100-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
320 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-060100-
PORT VALDEZ-
320 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-060100-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
320 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-060100-
VALDEZ ARM-
320 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-060100-
PASSAGE CANAL-
320 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-060100-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
320 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-060100-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
320 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-060100-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
320 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT EXCEPT 17 FT N OF DANGEROUS
CAPE. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-060100-
CHINIAK BAY-
320 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-060100-
MARMOT BAY-
320 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-060100-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
320 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-060100-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
320 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 35 KT SOUTH OF ANCHOR POINT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-060100-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
320 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-060100-
KACHEMAK BAY-
320 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

116 
FZAK51 PAFC 060019
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-061300-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL WEAKEN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS
EVENING. A 975 MB LOW ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA 90 NM
NORTHEAST OF CHIGNIK AND MOVES TO 120 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT 
AS A 997 MB LOW BY SAT EVENING.

$$

PKZ119-061300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT EARLY THIS EVENING.
NEAR THE COAST...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-061300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 25 KT DURING THE EVENING. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-061300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS 
S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD.
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-061300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE THIS EVENING.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-061300-
PORT VALDEZ-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-061300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-061300-
VALDEZ ARM-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 30 KT EARLY THIS EVENING...
THEN DIMINISHING TO 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT 
THIS EVENING THEN SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-061300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-061300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-061300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ132-061300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT SW 25 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
SEAS 24 FT EXCEPT 17 FT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT EXCEPT W 30 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ136-061300-
CHINIAK BAY-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-061300-
MARMOT BAY-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-061300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-061300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT TOWARD MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-061300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-061300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
538 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE CONTROLLING FEATURE ALOFT IS A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN
BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS. ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE PLANETARY WAVE...A
VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
IMPACTING MUCH OF THE BERING SEA WITH STEADY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS. A 140 KT JET STREAK IS FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM WHICH IS SUPPORTING
FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION ALOFT SHOWS
A BEAUTY OF AN INSTANT OCCLUSION SYSTEM...WHILE SHOWING A FAIRLY
NARROW MOIST/WARM CONVEYOR BELT. IT HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A VERY
MATURE SYSTEM...YET CONTINUES TO DYNAMICALLY DROP ITS SURFACE
PRESSURE AT IMPRESSIVE RATES.

FURTHER DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE MAINLAND...THE REMNANTS OF A
PREVIOUS SYSTEM IMPACT THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND WITH SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHCENTRAL IS CHARACTERIZED WITH A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COOK INLET
REGION...AND LINGERING LOW CLOUDS BANKING UP AGAINST THE TERRAIN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IS IN LOCK STEP WITH EACH OTHER IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS
THE BERING SEA SYSTEM FULLY MATURES AND SLOWLY BEGINS TO
FILL AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD. THERE ARE ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
SURFACE STRENGTH AND TRACK...HOWEVER THE OVERALL PROGRESSION AND
WEAKENING EASTWARD IS PRETTY WELL AGREED UPON. BOTH DOMAINS
PREFERRED A GFS-BASED FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL
REGION THIS MORNING...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
EAST MAINLAND ALASKA. HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...ALONG WITH WINDS...AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
GULF OF ALASKA THIS EVENING. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS BY THIS EVENING THAT WILL FURTHER
STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY.

THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A HEALTHY MOISTURE SUPPLY...AND AS A
RESULT PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THURSDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENAI...PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...AND SUSITANA
VALLEY WEST OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL WORK ITS
WAY NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT MAINLY A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AS
PRECIPITATION BECOMES HEAVY...BUT A FEW QUICK INCHES OF WET SNOW
IS POSSIBLE IN INLAND PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS. DUE TO THE STRONG
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...DOWNSLOPING IS EXPECTED TO
LIMIT RAIN AND SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL...MATANUSKA VALLEY...AND WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A DECAYING FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW INTO SW AK TODAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE BERING TONIGHT.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS THAT WILL
BRING WARMER AIR AND ABUNDANT RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH THU. BY
THAT TIME THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AKPEN...WITH RESIDUAL
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
BY FRI MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AS THE ALEUTIAN LOW MIGRATES EAST IT WILL SPREAD STORM AND
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AS WELL. A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. GALES AND STORM
FORCE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL PERSIST THU INTO FRI.
WHILE WINDS SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST...THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING ABUNDANT RAIN TO THE ISLANDS INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW MAKES
ITS WAY EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...FRI THROUGH TUE)...
THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN
THE MID TO LONG TERM AS A SERIES OF ROBUST LOWS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. FRIDAY EVENING...THE STRONG LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
ALEUTIANS WILL ENTER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH THE WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...KEEPING SOUTHWEST ALASKA IN A SHOWERY
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO INTRODUCE DRIER OFFSHORE
FLOW OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY/WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING IN THE FORECAST MOSTLY
ALONG THE GULF COAST AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.
THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL PUSH EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...FORCING THE LOW INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
GULF BY SUN.

BY MON...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO SOUTHCENTRAL AK. COLD AIR WILL
BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE DOMAIN AS NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LARGE POTENT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. AS THIS LOW DROPS
SOUTHEAST...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A TRIPLE POINT LOW
FORMING NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. IF THIS SECONDARY LOW WERE TO TAKE A
FAVORABLE TRACK AND BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE WITHOUT BRINGING
ABUNDANT WARM AIR...THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT SNOW
EVENT. A LOT OF VARIABLES STILL HAVE TO COME INTO PLACE FOR THIS
SCENARIO TO UNFOLD...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING.

OUT WEST...A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC ON
SATURDAY MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE IT
WILL MERGE WITH A STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BERING SEA. THIS DEEPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING BY MONDAY MORNING. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVING VARIOUS REPRESENTATIONS OF THIS STRONG LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING BY 18Z MONDAY. THE GFS IS PLACING A 966 MB LOW
NEAR GAMBELL WHILE THE EC SOLUTION BRINGS THE LOW TO 970 MB AT A
POSITION SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WITH NEAR-STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING. THE EC HAS BEEN REASONABLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITIONING OF THIS LOW AND THE EC ENSEMBLE
SHOWED A CLOSED LOW AT THIS TIME AS WELL. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE
EXTENDED FORECAST LEANED HEAVY ON THE WPC FORECAST WHICH UTILIZED
THE EC ENSEMBLE. THIS BRINGS THE WINDS OVER THE ALEUTIANS/BERING
TO GALE FORCE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TO SHOW AN UPWARD TREND FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 187.
MARINE...HURRICANE WARNING 175 176 177.
	     STORM WARNING 119 155 170 171 172 173 174 178.
		 GALE WARNING 120 125 130 131 132 137 141 150 160 165 179 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...RF/MSO