Gale Warning 699, NWS Anchorage, AK

800 
FZAK62 PAFC 060003
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
303 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-061415-
303 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 967 MB LOW NEAR 56N 166W EXITS OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA PENINSULA INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA FRI MORNING AND MOVES TO 58N 141W BY SAT EVENING
AS A 997 MB LOW. A 1009 MB LOW AT 45N 172E SAT MORNING MOVES TO 53N
177W BY SAT EVENING AS A 1002 MB LOW.

$$

PKZ411-061415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
303 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ412-061415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
303 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING W 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 26 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-061415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
303 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 24 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ414-061415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
303 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

403 
FZAK62 PAFC 061207
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
307 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-070215-
307 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 997 MB LOW NEAR 59N 170E MOVES TO 60N 172E FRI AFTERNOON AT 999
MB AND DISSIPATES. A 1003 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 56N 165E FRI
AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO 62N 178W AT 966 MB EARLY SUN. AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY SAT AND MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ411-070215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
307 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT S OF 56N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-070215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
307 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 28 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-070215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
307 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-070215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
307 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 26 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

756 
FZAK62 PAFC 070010
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
310 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-071445-
310 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 996 MB LOW AT 59N 171E MOVES TO 61N 171W AS A 1002 MB LOW FRI
NIGHT AND DISSIPATES SAT MORNING. A 989 MB LOW NEAR 58N 171E SAT
MORNING MOVES TO 64N 171W AND STRENGTHENS TO 959 MB SAT AFTERNOON
WITH A FRONT STRETCHING BACK TO KAMCHATKA. A 1008 MB LOW AROUND
46N 171E SAT MORNING MOVES TO 54N 178W AND DISSIPATES SAT EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-071445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
310 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW 
SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN 
SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-071445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
310 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING W 30 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 25 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-071445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
310 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 27 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ414-071445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
310 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 27 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 25 FT.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

318 
FZAK62 PAFC 071240
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
340 AM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-080245-
340 AM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 992 MB LOW AT 57N 168E MOVES TO 58N 172W AS A 985 MB LOW SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW IS ABSORBED INTO A 988 MB LOW THAT DEVELOPS
NEAR 60N 177W SAT EVENING...THEN MOVES TO 63N 171W AT 960 MB SUN
AFTERNOON AND REMAINS THROUGH MON.

$$

PKZ411-080245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
340 AM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-080245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
340 AM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING W 30 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 26 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-080245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
340 AM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING W 35 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 TO 27 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 25 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ414-080245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
340 AM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 27 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 TO 27 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

151 
FZAK62 PAFC 080036
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
336 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-081430-
336 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A 988 MB LOW AT 58N 170E
STRENGTHENS TO 976 MB AND MOVES TO 61N 177W SAT EVENING. SUNDAY
MORNING THE LOW STRENGTHENS TO 955 MB AND MOVES TO 63N 175W...THEN
MOVES TO 64N 166W AT 963 MB MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-081430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
336 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 14
TO 25 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-081430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
336 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO TO 35 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 TO 29 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 25 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-081430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
336 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING W 35 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 16 TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...W WIND 40 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 TO 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 26 FT. SNOW SHOWERS
AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ414-081430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
336 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 18 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 27 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 23 TO 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 TO 25 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
504 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN STORM OVER THE AREA TODAY IS A LARGE STRONG MATURE LOW
NOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE STORM NOW MOVING ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IS PRODUCING STRONG PRE-FRONTAL WIND AND STRONG
GUSTY WIND AROUND THE NORTH TO WEST SIDE OF THE STORM. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT IS PUSHING EAST SPREADING RAIN IN ADVANCE OF IT
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS INTENSE LOW IS
SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER LOW AND A 140 KT JET IS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THIS UPPER LOW AND TROUGH. COLD AIR ALOFT IS FEEDING IN
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY RESULTING IN STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LOW.

THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW THAT MOVED ACROSS THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVED INLAND OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY IN THE DELTA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
INTENSE LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AS IT MATURES THEN
SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT TO ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
THURSDAY.

THE MODELS DO DIVERGE ON THE SOLUTION OF THE THE DETAILS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THESE IMPORTANT
DETAILS ARE CRITICAL TO THE FORECAST SOLUTION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
AGREE ON THE RAIN SNOW LINE AND COLD ADVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA FRIDAY AS THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER. THE DIFFERENCE WHILE
MINOR MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE IN WHAT MAY HAPPEN IN THE ANCHORAGE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ALL THE MODELS BRING A WEAK LOW TO THE NORTH
GULF COAST. THE NAM HOWEVER DOES BRING A LOBE OF THIS LOW INTO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THIS SOLUTION IS THE CLASSIC COLD ADVECTION
SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN COOK INLET ANCHORAGE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF
PREFER TO KEEP THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH AND ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE
ABOUT BRING COLD AIR SOUTH AND EAST. AT THIS TIME WE ARE
CONTINUING WITH THE RAIN SNOW MIX FORECAST AND WILL BE MONITORING
THIS CLOSELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS AS THE WELL DEVELOPED LOW NEAR ADAK THIS AFTERNOON AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN OVER KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY TOMORROW MORNING. PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ALONG COASTAL REGIONS AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ALASKA
RANGE EAST OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS ON THURSDAY
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. INTERIOR AREAS OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT WITH
AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5 INCHES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS TOMORROW.
PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG COOK INLET AND INTO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
EVOLVING INTO A RAIN-SNOW MIX BY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT...THE ANCHORAGE BOWL INTO THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN DOWNSLOPED UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WHEN
THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.

OVER THE MARINE AREAS...WIDESPREAD UPPER GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
SOUTHCENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BARRIER JET
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
RAIN AND SNOW WILL PICK BACK UP OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
TONIGHT AS THE DECAYING FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA TRACKS
FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING...AND IS QUICKLY REPLACED WITH
STEADIER RAINFALL FROM A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP BERING SEA
LOW. WARMER AIR FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL FILTER IN OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING
RAIN AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
BY FRIDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AKPEN...AND RESIDUAL RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER
NORTHWEST FLOW FILTERS INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT
AS GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...WITH THE STRONGEST AREAS BEING
LOCALIZED TO ALONG THE COAST AND ALEUTIAN RANGE. THE WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
TRACKS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AS THE ALEUTIAN LOW MIGRATES EAST IT WILL SPREAD STORM AND
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT...THEN
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
THURSDAY. STRONG GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIGRATE OVER TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THURSDAY...THEN INTO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA BY FRIDAY. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FOR TONIGHT. WHILE WINDS SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE
BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD AND INTO THE GULF.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA WITH THE MAIN
PRESSURE CENTERS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST THERE IS STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF IMPACTS. THE LOW THAT WILL BE IN
THE GULF BY FRIDAY HAS THE MOST AGREEMENT WITH IT MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THE LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST FOR THIS LOW IS THAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT A LOW ALSO FORMING IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WHICH COULD LEAD TO
INCREASED SNOWFALL FOR ANCHORAGE. AT THIS TIME THERE IS LOW
PROBABILITY OF THIS HAPPENING. THE OTHER PROBLEM IS THE LOW MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN BERING OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOT OF
DIFFERENCE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.
SOME OF THE MODELS BRING IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY ON SUNDAY
WHILE SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH SLOWER RESULTING IN AN ALMOST
24 HOUR TIME DIFFERENCE. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR IT BRINGS UP FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BY LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC......HIGH WIND WARNING 187.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING 176.
         STORM WARNING 119 155 170 172 173 174 175 177.
         GALE WARNING 120 125 130 131 132 137 139 141 150 160 165
                      171 178 179 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...DK